The Window

[HotInHere]

There is a lot of talk all over the threads about our "window" for winning a championship. And it is true, having an MVP QB on his rookie deal is a HUGE advantage.

But Steve B once said he didn't believe in windows. This franchise is not approaching this as a two-season window to win a championship. It just gets more challenging. But I don't think anyone is thinking the Chiefs window is closed just because they are about to pay Mahomes.

The Seahawks, Saints, Packers, and Patriots all keep making runs with QBs that are not on their rookie deal. Climbing that mountain is tough; it takes a lot of things to go right to get a SB title, even in the best of circumstances (as we saw this year.) Here's what needs to happen to keep the window open:

1) Make a good deal with Lamar. There is no getting around paying him $40MM a year. But there are a ton of ways to do it. This has to be EDC's and Moriarty's masterstroke. The best contract ever.

2) Prepare for the contract. They are already doing this. Many of the contracts they are paying out now will be finishing at the same time that Lamar gets expensive. We will be able to let expensive veterans walk (e.g. Earl Thomas) and make decisions on younger players like Tavon Young and Marcus Peters.

3) Keep the draft magic going. In the most expensive years of Lamar's deal, he will have to be supplemented by inexpensive over-producers. We will have to have a young, cheap FS to step in for Earl, for example. (Is the Eliot? If not, we need to draft somebody.) And btw, this is why I disagree with those who believe we should be trading a lot of draft capital to move up and get a stud who can immediately contribute to our win-now window. The guys we get in the 2nd-4th rounds this year will be needed to be key cheap cogs for your 2023 Ravens.

4) Develop Lamar. Lamar makes mediocre players good, and good players great. He will have to continue to develop as a passer as his running skills inevitably decrease. The better he gets, the more success we can have with a sub-par cast of characters.

5) Smart extensions. EDC has shown a tendency to extend players early. That gets them a little more cheaply than if they hit the open market. Of course, you have to extend the RIGHT players, because a Rice/Pitta-type cap hit is crippling when you have a $40MM quarterback.

[Valhain]

Right on the money. The Ravens are not that team that will go mad in FA or trade 1st round picks like there is no tomorrow (see Rams) because well... "THE WINDOW!!!"

They are not the team to suck and tank for 5 years in a row so you can pick the Joe Burrows/Chase Youngs of every Draft either.

[rhapsody]

You are in good form, Hot. I am not surprised. A three-year deal for Calais Campbell can be managed whereas a 5 year deal for a top drawer receiver will lead to cap hell and ugly cuts. Yanda will be leaving as Stanley is getting paid.

We have a rare and wonderful management on the Ravens. EDC is going into all of this with having had the experience, looking over Ozzie's shoulder, of the strains of staying in the title hunt with an expensive QB, and having to spend to the cap, and now he is perfectly prepared to work out the pieces as he moves toward another era of expensive franchise QB.

You are right - we need quality starters coming out of the 2nd-4th rounds in 2020, 2021.

[mmi16]

Those who build to windows - have their windows broken.

Build for the long haul and always restock and reload.

[lobachevsky]

Couldn't agree more, wouldn't want to agree less...

I stuck the rest of this in the Jordan Ricards thread but it belongs here. Ecco!:

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Yinz have very little idea how incredibly difficult it is to build a roster the right way for the long haul . (Not you, Hot.) I very much doubt EdC (or for that matter Biscuit or Harbs) wants to go half-wacko chasing Superb Owls for the next 3 seasons only to have the team fall off Salary Cap Cliff for the succeeding 5.

Once they figure out who they're keeping around for the long haul (basic 8-12 players, say 3-5 offense, 3-5 defense, PK & punter) the next step is to stabilize the continual replenishment of draftees:

• Bring them up to speed on ST (which most have never played in college) as they're slotted in as backups for their anointed position(s)
• Expect them to be ready to move up to starting by the end of year 2
• Get 2 years' starter-level play from them on their rookie contracts (while drafting their eventual replacements)
• Wave byebye as some other team drastically overpays them for year 5 on
• Collect the comp pick

(NB draftees are on a 4-year initial contract but this cycle is a 2-year replenishment - when the player becomes a starter at the end of year 2, his eventual replacement [after he leaves for stupid $$$ in year 5] is picked in the following draft)

Also, fill out the roster with cheap resigns & FAs, JAGs who are versatile (so they save roster spots). And be proactive regarding player progress - be aware of who is not fitting or getting with the pogrom [sic! sic! sic!] (frequently hurt or just not clicking) & cut ties as soon as that's apparent if there's a better option (even a stopgap) available.

Once LJ is in line for the big contract, with others soon to follow (Stanley, Zeus Jr, Mandrews, Hollywood, HH, I could go on) playing the 2-year replenishment cycle like a Strad is going to be a crucial part of keeping the Crows in contention; got to have at least competent play around #8 if he's gonna earn his payday.

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[QtR Nevermore]

3) Keep the draft magic going. In the most expensive years of Lamar's deal, he will have to be supplemented by inexpensive over-producers. We will have to have a young, cheap FS to step in for Earl, for example. (Is the Eliot? If not, we need to draft somebody.) And btw, this is why I disagree with those who believe we should be trading a lot of draft capital to move up and get a stud who can immediately contribute to our win-now window. The guys we get in the 2nd-4th rounds this year will be needed to be key cheap cogs for your 2023 Ravens.

I completely agree. I hate the idea of trading up in the draft when there are so many players in rounds 2 - 4 who could help us.

[QtR Nevermore]

This franchise is not approaching this as a two-season window to win a championship.

2) Prepare for the contract. They are already doing this. Many of the contracts they are paying out now will be finishing at the same time that Lamar gets expensive. We will be able to let expensive veterans walk (e.g. Earl Thomas) and make decisions on younger players like Tavon Young and Marcus Peters.

I think the contracts EDC is giving out show that we are approaching the next few years as a Superbowl window. We're just doing it smarter than the Rams. He's giving the team quality players and continuity in the short term but also giving us the flexibility to choose who to resign/release so we can remain competitive after Lamar gets paid.

[HotInHere]

I think the contracts EDC is giving out show that we are approaching the next few years as a Superbowl window. We're just doing it smarter than the Rams. He's giving the team quality players and continuity in the short term but also giving us the flexibility to choose who to resign/release so we can remain competitive after Lamar gets paid.

This seems like contradictory statements. A Super Bowl 'window' is a period of a few years where we need to win a Super Bowl because we will not be able to be competitive after that window closes.

But then you're saying, unlike the Rams, we plan to remain competitive after Lamar gets paid, which means there is no specific window of a few years. It's just the recognition that we will have to reconfigure the team once the percentage of cap cost shifts heavily to the QB position.

[ChattanoogaCrow]

It really comes down to what kind of career does Lamar and the guys that man the higher paid positions want to have. If Ed and the talent he brings in want to build a sustainable winner and Super Bowl contender they need only decide look to the example north of us set in Foxboro. New England rarely if ever breaks the bank or sets any records when it comes to the contracts they hand out. It's almost an unspoken understanding that a player would take a little less than what they could get on the open market in order to have a shot at winning a Super Bowl ... and New England has proven that they know how to win Super Bowls if they can get the right players at the right price. It's been fairly common knowledge throughout the years that Tom Brady has left money on the table in order be a ring collector. Competitive hunger and winning have to be the primary moving factor permeating the entire organization, from top to bottom all the way down to the waterboy.

Lamar and every other player on the roster need to decide what kind of career they want to have as a Raven. Does Lamar want to set the pay scale for NFL quarterbacks or collect rings? Does Lamar want to make 42 million a year or 37 with a shot at a Superbowl? All the noise coming out of Dallas says that Dak seems to think he's a 40 million dollar a year QB, so will that make Lamar a 50 million dollar a year QB? I'm going to say it right now, if Jones gives Dak 40 per they'll never sniff an NFC Championship. Personally, I don't see a lot of difference between hitting the Lotto for 37 or 42 million. Either way, I just got really FAT. In the end, it comes down to the rings. You can blow your wad, win a Superbowl, hold your team hostage to reset the market for QBs, or stay hungry and see how many fingers you can get a ring on. When you're making NFL quarterback money does a few million dollars change your life so much more than adding another ring to your bling collection? I know what I'd do, but every man has his own choices to make.

[QtR Nevermore]

This seems like contradictory statements. A Super Bowl 'window' is a period of a few years where we need to win a Super Bowl because we will not be able to be competitive after that window closes.

Though I'm not sure there is an agreed upon definition of the phrase, I've always assumed a Superbowl Window was a window of opportunity when a team has a better chance to win a superbowl. I've never thought it implied such a definite ending as you suggest.

That's not how windows work, is it? Once they're closed they can never open again until you rebuild the house around them? If we want that degree of finality we should talk about a superbowl portcullis or drawbridge or something.

[HotInHere]

Though I'm not sure there is an agreed upon definition of the phrase, I've always assumed a Superbowl Window was a window of opportunity when a team has a better chance to win a superbowl. I've never thought it implied such a definite ending as you suggest.

That's not how windows work, is it? Once they're closed they can never open again until you rebuild the house around them? If we want that degree of finality we should talk about a superbowl portcullis or drawbridge or something.

Perhaps the window metaphor does not refer to its functionality, i.e. its ability to open and close. Rather, it refers to an opening, a space in impenetrable wall. Or, if you want to think of it functionally, the Ravens idea would be to have a window that just stays open, while the Rams (for example) have an open window that is going to slam shut on them very soon, and then they will have to work very hard and take many years to open it again.

Either way, it is better to remain competitive every year and always have a chance at the Super Bowl, rather than take the Rams’ path of setting up a certain finite window to win a championship with the knowledge that once you’ve missed that window, you’ve got to blow it all up and start over.


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[mmi16]

It really comes down to what kind of career does Lamar and the guys that man the higher paid positions want to have. If Ed and the talent he brings in want to build a sustainable winner and Super Bowl contender they need only decide look to the example north of us set in Foxboro. New England rarely if ever breaks the bank or sets any records when it comes to the contracts they hand out. It's almost an unspoken understanding that a player would take a little less than what they could get on the open market in order to have a shot at winning a Super Bowl ... and New England has proven that they know how to win Super Bowls if they can get the right players at the right price. It's been fairly common knowledge throughout the years that Tom Brady has left money on the table in order be a ring collector. Competitive hunger and winning have to be the primary moving factor permeating the entire organization, from top to bottom all the way down to the waterboy.

Lamar and every other player on the roster need to decide what kind of career they want to have as a Raven. Does Lamar want to set the pay scale for NFL quarterbacks or collect rings? Does Lamar want to make 42 million a year or 37 with a shot at a Superbowl? All the noise coming out of Dallas says that Dak seems to think he's a 40 million dollar a year QB, so will that make Lamar a 50 million dollar a year QB? I'm going to say it right now, if Jones gives Dak 40 per they'll never sniff an NFC Championship. Personally, I don't see a lot of difference between hitting the Lotto for 37 or 42 million. Either way, I just got really FAT. In the end, it comes down to the rings. You can blow your wad, win a Superbowl, hold your team hostage to reset the market for QBs, or stay hungry and see how many fingers you can get a ring on. When you're making NFL quarterback money does a few million dollars change your life so much more than adding another ring to your bling collection? I know what I'd do, but every man has his own choices to make.

For a rookie, you nailed it. Do you want to get PAID or do you want to show off the winning Super Bowl jewelry. As a team both cannot be accomplished at the same time. Football is the ultimate TEAM game and it takes every player on the TEAM to bring home the winning jewelry.