OBJ Trade offers

[Shas]

But again, if we are all certain he is gone, it’s simply a matter of when, than the asset we can get today is worth far more than we will ever get for him.

Let's start with the common assumption that, "what we will get for him" in the the future, if we do nothing, is a 3rd round comp pick.

A 2023 third round pick is worth at least a second round pick in 2021, maybe more. I've been calling it a late first as the break-even point for a trade.

If that's the best offer they get, then you can argue that the compensation is a wash. But less than that, they what they are getting is certainly not worth "far more" than his future value.

Part of that is the present-value concept, which includes the fact we can't discount the value of him playing one, rather than zero more years at RT for the Ravens. That tips the scale against taking a pick today that is worth exactly the same as a '23 late third round pick

There is also RevBarns' point that they may be able to have their cake and eat it too. That is, they extract that last year of value from him playing RT for them in '21, and then they can tag and still trade him a year from now, which you figure still going to net you more in '22 than that '23 third round pick.

So, you really can't make the argument they he's going to be gone in a year, so we should just trade him now and whatever we get is better than losing him eventually.

A good analogy is car ownership.

Let's say you own a 6 year old car. It's cheap to operate because you've paid off the purchase price. Yet, you know that eventually it won't be serviceable, or could become very expensive to keep running.

So, do you sell it now, and pocket, say, $10,000? If you do, you're going to have to start making payments on another, $30,000 new car. Or maybe you find a really cheap used car you want to gamble on--hey, your six year old car is going to eventually break down--and use the leftover cash to buy a slew of scratchoffs, hoping you win enough to buy an even nicer car. Getting something now is better than running it into the ground, you figure?. Why not get value out of it before it's worth nothing, right?

But then you are risking that cheap used car breaks down quickly and you can't get to work, and you lose your job, the scratch offs are worthless, and now you got a new, bigger problem on your hands.

They answer is, you just keep driving that paid-for car, grateful for the cheap performance you're getting...unless some sucker wants to give you $15,000 for a car only worth $10,000.

That's where the Ravens are with Orlando. If some GM over-values him because he's more than a good right tackle to that team, you accept the generous offer.

Otherwise, you keep driving Orlando and don't fret over the fact that his blue book value will go down after another 12,000 miles a year from now.

[BcRaven]

I think this is what it would take for me to pull the trigger with the Jags:

Jags:

- 1st round pick #25 (via Rams)
- 2nd round pick #45 (via Vikings)


Ravens:

- Orlando Brown Jr.
- 3rd Round Pick (compensatory)

And I would be willing to bet the Jags wouldn't even consider this. No rebuilding team is going to give up two top 50 picks, even with them getting a late 3rd in return.

Since we're only speculating here anyway, I do not agree with Minion. Assuming the Jaguars pick Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson) 1st, which is almost a foregone conclusion, they will want someone to protect their investment @ LT. That "someone" would be O. Brown. An experienced NFL OT is worth it's weight in gold, in this case draft choices. Ergo, their 2nd 1st round pick and their 2nd 2nd round pick. They'd also be getting a late 3rd in the bargain.

Therefore, the Jags would have Lawrence, O. Brown, their original 2nd (#33), 3rd (#65), plus the Ravens Comp Pick (#100?). Still seems like a huge haul to me... Bc

[DeltaRaven]

Exactly. People need to stop inflating his value just because he's on our team. Flip the coin to the other side. Are you okay with giving up two top 50 picks in a rebuild for a guy that you then have to turn around and pay the big bucks? I'm not. I'll take my chances on drafting my own if that's what the cost is. I think there's a point where I'm okay making the trade but it sure as hell is not going to be two prime draft picks.

I think what's really over inflated are 1st round draft picks. Especially beyond the top 10. There's a trend starting to develop where teams are cashing in their 1st round picks for proven NFL talent.

Look at what the Colts did last year. They traded #13 overall for DeForest Buckner and then paid him big money. The alternative was likely Javon Kinlaw who just so happened to be drafted by the team they traded the pick to, and there was a talent drop off. The Bills traded #22 overall for Stefon Diggs because they didn't want to take a chance in the draft on WR, a very volatile position as we know.

If you're a team like the Jags (#25) or even the Colts (#21) again this year, with their cap resources, would you rather have a more proven commodity like OBJ or are you rolling the dice on the 5th or 6th best tackle prospect in this draft? I think it's a pretty easy decision. Especially given the demand and shortage of quality NFL OT's right now.

[jonboy79]

Let's start with the common assumption that, "what we will get for him" in the the future, if we do nothing, is a 3rd round comp pick.

A 2023 third round pick is worth at least a second round pick in 2021, maybe more. I've been calling it a late first as the break-even point for a trade.

If that's the best offer they get, then you can argue that the compensation is a wash. But less than that, they what they are getting is certainly not worth "far more" than his future value.

Part of that is the present-value concept, which includes the fact we can't discount the value of him playing one, rather than zero more years at RT for the Ravens. That tips the scale against taking a pick today that is worth exactly the same as a '23 late third round pick

There is also RevBarns' point that they may be able to have their cake and eat it too. That is, they extract that last year of value from him playing RT for them in '21, and then they can tag and still trade him a year from now, which you figure still going to net you more in '22 than that '23 third round pick.

So, you really can't make the argument they he's going to be gone in a year, so we should just trade him now and whatever we get is better than losing him eventually.

A good analogy is car ownership.

Let's say you own a 6 year old car. It's cheap to operate because you've paid off the purchase price. Yet, you know that eventually it won't be serviceable, or could become very expensive to keep running.

So, do you sell it now, and pocket, say, $10,000? If you do, you're going to have to start making payments on another, $30,000 new car. Or maybe you find a really cheap used car you want to gamble on--hey, your six year old car is going to eventually break down--and use the leftover cash to buy a slew of scratchoffs, hoping you win enough to buy an even nicer car. Getting something now is better than running it into the ground, you figure?. Why not get value out of it before it's worth nothing, right?

But then you are risking that cheap used car breaks down quickly and you can't get to work, and you lose your job, the scratch offs are worthless, and now you got a new, bigger problem on your hands.

They answer is, you just keep driving that paid-for car, grateful for the cheap performance you're getting...unless some sucker wants to give you $15,000 for a car only worth $10,000.

That's where the Ravens are with Orlando. If some GM over-values him because he's more than a good right tackle to that team, you accept the generous offer.

Otherwise, you keep driving Orlando and don't fret over the fact that his blue book value will go down after another 12,000 miles a year from now.

Why would a 2023 3rd(0pick 100ish, so barely a third, and not guaranteed) be worth a late first, buoy have that backwards every year in the future downgrades it a round. That’s basically a 6th round pick today.

The car you are talking about will never be worth more than it is today. If you can get $10k for it now, you will never get more for it. You can get that $10k and put it down on a car, or wait until next year, and get a $5k tax and write off the following years taxes. Effectively, saving you $1800 or so two years from now.

That is a now you are either buying a $30k car this year, or a $34k car next year, so accelerating this timeline does have a cost, but as you mention it, there are still pros and cons to that.


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[moose10101]

Not everyone shares the same opinion of Brown as some in this fan base. Paul Alexander who was the Bengals offensive line coach for almost 25 years was on 105.7 and said that not in a million years would he want Brown playing LT for him. This is a guy that coached in the league for a long time and knows OL play saying that, not Vinny Cerrato or some other talking head.

He wouldn't want a guy who played the position in college at a high level, transitioned well enough to RT to make the Pro Bowl, and then transitioned back to LT in the middle of a season and did a decent job?

Lots of teams will want that guy, for the right price.

[Minion]

Jamal Adams went for two 1sts

Jalen Ramsey went for two 1sts and a 4th

It's not like the concept of trading multiple 1sts for a premiere player was just some bonehead Bill O'Brien concept, we've seen it happen multiple times recently

With that said, Orlando isn't on the level of an Adams or Ramsey at his position, those guys were considered A+ players. I think Orlando is more in the area of a B+ player. But LT has outstanding positional value which also goes in his favor. I really think a late 1st and 3rd is absolutely fair when you stack it up against other trades from the last few years.

I would argue this absolutely was a Bill O'Brien boneheaded concept. You put Tunsil back on the market 2 years ago sans BOB making an offer, I'd venture to guess that he would have struggled to garner one 1st rounder, let alone two plus more. That's how bad that trade was.

[Minion]

I think what's really over inflated are 1st round draft picks. Especially beyond the top 10. There's a trend starting to develop where teams are cashing in their 1st round picks for proven NFL talent.

Look at what the Colts did last year. They traded #13 overall for DeForest Buckner and then paid him big money. The alternative was likely Javon Kinlaw who just so happened to be drafted by the team they traded the pick to, and there was a talent drop off. The Bills traded #22 overall for Stefon Diggs because they didn't want to take a chance in the draft on WR, a very volatile position as we know.

If you're a team like the Jags (#25) or even the Colts (#21) again this year, with their cap resources, would you rather have a more proven commodity like OBJ or are you rolling the dice on the 5th or 6th best tackle prospect in this draft? I think it's a pretty easy decision. Especially given the demand and shortage of quality NFL OT's right now.

But those are different situations. Indy was a team that had just invested in a veteran QB and was going for it. They found a way to add a true premier player and chose to do so in an effort to win it all. Did it work? No. But the situations aren't exactly comparable. Buffalo was also an ascending team making a push and found a way to add a premier player. Jacksonville is in a total rebuild. Lawrence is a top prospect but they need a lot of help on that team. Indy could be a good match for something similar this time around but they also just traded a few picks for Wentz so they might not match up.

AND LET'S STOP TREATING OBJ AS SOME SURE THING. That's my final point here. He's a good player, yes. He had a good run at LT for a brief period, yes. But he's not some guaranteed franchise LT and I think that's where people are continually overrating him. Could he be that guy? Absolutely, and I hope he does become that guy. But there are serious questions here about how he transitions to a more traditional offense where he has to pass block a lot more. His pass blocking numbers were good in his stint but it's a short sample size. That's why I think it's hard to expect a team to give up a top 15 pick, and I'd be floored if it happens. He's good... probably worth a late round 1 and a sweetener, but he's not premier player level just yet.

[DeltaRaven]

But those are different situations. Indy was a team that had just invested in a veteran QB and was going for it. They found a way to add a true premier player and chose to do so in an effort to win it all. Did it work? No. But the situations aren't exactly comparable. Buffalo was also an ascending team making a push and found a way to add a premier player. Jacksonville is in a total rebuild. Lawrence is a top prospect but they need a lot of help on that team. Indy could be a good match for something similar this time around but they also just traded a few picks for Wentz so they might not match up.

AND LET'S STOP TREATING OBJ AS SOME SURE THING. That's my final point here. He's a good player, yes. He had a good run at LT for a brief period, yes. But he's not some guaranteed franchise LT and I think that's where people are continually overrating him. Could he be that guy? Absolutely, and I hope he does become that guy. But there are serious questions here about how he transitions to a more traditional offense where he has to pass block a lot more. His pass blocking numbers were good in his stint but it's a short sample size. That's why I think it's hard to expect a team to give up a top 15 pick, and I'd be floored if it happens. He's good... probably worth a late round 1 and a sweetener, but he's not premier player level just yet.

Man, every situation is different. You can nit pick anything to that degree to disqualify the comparison.

Let’s not act like Tunsil was some consensus top 3 LT in the league at that point either. Most though of him as good but not great. I’d put OBJ in a similar light at this point, especially as a LT.

[jonboy79]

Man, every situation is different. You can nit pick anything to that degree to disqualify the comparison.

Let’s not act like Tunsil was some consensus top 3 LT in the league at that point either. Most though of him as good but not great. I’d put OBJ in a similar light at this point, especially as a LT.

Three full seasons in a traditional offense vs 12 games in a “gimmick” system.


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[Minion]

Man, every situation is different. You can nit pick anything to that degree to disqualify the comparison.

Let’s not act like Tunsil was some consensus top 3 LT in the league at that point either. Most though of him as good but not great. I’d put OBJ in a similar light at this point, especially as a LT.

You're just proving my point. Tunsil was not a top 3 LT so the fact that he garnered what he did is inexcusable and continues to show how pointless that comparison was. Nobody but BOB was offering that much. Let's just stop comparing this OBJ deal to that one completely because it has absolutely no bearing on what will happen. That's one of the most egregious trades in NFL history.

And it's not nitpicking. It's reality. The Buckner deal and Diggs deal are completely different situations with teams at completely different points.

[Jazz1988]

I think what's really over inflated are 1st round draft picks. Especially beyond the top 10. There's a trend starting to develop where teams are cashing in their 1st round picks for proven NFL talent.

Look at what the Colts did last year. They traded #13 overall for DeForest Buckner and then paid him big money. The alternative was likely Javon Kinlaw who just so happened to be drafted by the team they traded the pick to, and there was a talent drop off. The Bills traded #22 overall for Stefon Diggs because they didn't want to take a chance in the draft on WR, a very volatile position as we know.

If you're a team like the Jags (#25) or even the Colts (#21) again this year, with their cap resources, would you rather have a more proven commodity like OBJ or are you rolling the dice on the 5th or 6th best tackle prospect in this draft? I think it's a pretty easy decision. Especially given the demand and shortage of quality NFL OT's right now.

I think another key thing to mention when talking about The Colts and The Bills is that both those teams were in win now mode. I'm not sure if that's ultimately the case with a team like The Jaguars whom just hired a former college head coach to be their head coach. No team should want to have a losing season but i'm not sure if The Jaguars are in a position to be a considered a super bowl or bust team. They also have needs beyound just needing a quarterback and left tackle. If anything they probably should be smart to use their picks to gain more picks to help rebuild their team if they feel like the talent in this year draft can help them instead of giving up picks for one player.

[Minion]

Three full seasons in a traditional offense vs 12 games in a “gimmick” system.


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I wouldn't go as far as to say it's a gimmick system, but every OL is going to look better when they get to run block more. Every OL in the league would rather put their hat down and pull or push forward over pass protection. Why? Because it's much easier to win. OBJ's pass blocking numbers were very good in his stint at LT but it's absolutely no sure thing that it translates over to a more traditional offense.