Debate: Trade Justin Tucker for a first rounder?

[InigoMontoya]

Fair point, however the Ravens have had an above average to great defense for most of Tucker's career. The Ravens have often taken that chance and held when he did miss. The Ravens are a stat crazy team and almost always play the percentages.

I would be shocked if the stats didn't show that with a kicker like Tucker it's more valuable to take a 70% of three points over the downside of giving the other team the ball at their 33 or better.

It also depends on stuff like game situation, etc, which is impossible to tell using raw statistics.

Edit: I looked up the stats. If a drive starts at your own 40 yard line for example, that team has kicks a fg 18% of the time and scores a TD 22% of the time. There is a 60% chance they don't score at all.

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What are the chances a team scores when starting from their own 10? I'm gonna guess it's less than 10%.

[blah3]

Fine! You brought the stat nerd out in me!

So, I looked up every game in 2014 and 2015 for Tucker. In those two seasons, he missed 11 50+ yard field goals. These are the years when Harbaugh thought Tucker was a god. Here's what I found:

- 2 of those 11 were end of the first half (meaning: kick it and the half is over) kicks. Both in 2014. One for 64 yards.

- 2 of them were end of 4th quarter misses. One against Miami was with 2 minutes 47 seconds left for 55 yards. The Ravens lost that game by 2. One was with a minute and 17 seconds left against the Rams. The Ravens got the ball back and Tucker made a 47 yard field goal to win. Still, that's two times where Tucker missed with the game on the line.

- The rest were in places where the other team got the ball back in a close game with time to score. More than half the time the other team either got a field goal or a TD. Most of these instances happened with 1 to 2 minutes left in the first half.

I'm not gonna look up the other 7 misses because that was a lot of work. :)

Tucker has made his last 50 4th quarter field goals.

[TIGERBLOOD]

What are the chances a team scores when starting from their own 10? I'm gonna guess it's less than 10%.

The deeper we go the more variables there are to consider. What are the chances of downing it at the 10 vs a touch back? What are the odds if you just go for it on 4th instead of kicking or punting?

For the sake of this discussion we were talking about a more simple scenario based on your counterpoint about missing a fg and giving the other team field position. I chose the 40 yd line as a baseline, even though that would be a 57 yard attempt.

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[BcRaven]

Tucker has made his last 50 4th quarter field goals.

Really? If so, and I don't doubt your word, why would any Ravens fan want to trade this valuable guy? Especially for an unknown commodity like a 1st round draft choice where so many have failed to live up to expectations. Sadly, several have been Ravens... Bc

[Captain Silver]

Really? If so, and I don't doubt your word, why would any Ravens fan want to trade this valuable guy? Especially for an unknown commodity like a 1st round draft choice where so many have failed to live up to expectations. Sadly, several have been Ravens... Bc

Patrick Queen...

[2bynight]

These kinds of questions come up over the years and they are all moot. He will not be traded period. End of question.

[BcRaven]

Patrick Queen...

Thanks for the reminder ... Bc

[Ortizer]

In close games there are a lot of plays that could've changed the outcome, not just the kick at the end. This argument exaggerates Tucker's influence relative to other players.

How about we stick with Detroit but make the year 2013?

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[QtR Nevermore]

These kinds of questions come up over the years and they are all moot. He will not be traded period. End of question.

We all know he won't be traded period. The question was introduced by the OP as a hypothetical debating point and that's what we're doing. End of response.

For me the question isn't about how many games Tucker has won or how great a kicker he is because, if the Ravens didn't have Tucker, they'd still have an above average NFL kicker. They always find them. eg. Lutz or Hauschka, and those guys win games too. Not as many or as reliably as Tucker, but they mostly step up.

So, for me, it's about whether the difference between Tucker and an above average NFL kicker is worth a first and I just don't think it is.

These days, over two thirds of first round picks become contributors, at more important positions than kicker and that's incredibly valuable with a rookie contract. Add the genuine possibility of finding a star and that makes it quite an easy choice for me.

[Ortizer]

But even if it’s not the sole cause

I see what you did there

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[Kyle Cactus]

How about we stick with Detroit but make the year 2013?

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Q1 5:06 - Art Jones and Daryl Smith combine for a sack that puts the Lions in 3 and 15, effectively killing a drive that was already in our end of the field when we were already down 7 points.

Q1 3:05 - Flacco and Pitta converts 3rd and 7 deep in our own territory to keep the drive alive that leads to Tucker's first field goal.

Q3 10:40 - DeAngelo Tyson intercepts a pass on 3rd and 1 when the Lions were already in field goal range.

Q4 11:12 - Jimmy Smith makes a PD on 3rd and 6 near midfield to force the Lions to punt.

Q4 9:11 - Daryl Smith intercepts a pass in Lions territory to set us up at the Lions 34. This leads to another Tucker field goal.

Q4 2:04 - Flacco and Jacoby Jones convert 3rd and 15 with a 27 yard completion. This keeps the drive alive that leads to the game winning field goal.

Those are just the super obvious examples of plays that show up on the box score play-by-play. Any of those were just as necessary to win that game as each Tucker field goal. And this doesn't include the myriad of critical events that don't show up on a box score.
- The 3rd down stops made possible because of good coverage or a QB pressure.
- The 3rd down stops where someone made a routine tackle (some of Tuck's kicks were routine)
- The critical block on a 3rd down play for our offense.
etc...

This is of course from a game where Tucker was uniquely valuable. He may have been the single most important player in that particular game, but in most games where he hits a game winning kick he probably isn't.

Every field goal attempt is the focal point of that play and lands right on the box score. It's very obvious when a kicker makes or doesn't make that play, but it's less apparent when a block is made or missed, a DB loses a step or sticks like glue to a receiver, a defender takes a good or bad angle, etc... Because FG attempts are so obvious, the bias amongst fans would be to overestimate their relative importance. And these other events happen many more times in a game, so even if on an individual basis they aren't as critical, the cumulative effect of these other types of plays can be significant.

A few other considerations:
- A first round pick is often going to be a game changing player, AND you're getting them well below market value. For 4 years, they can be among the most important players on a roster from a value vs cap perspective.
- Tucker is the best at what he does, but as others on this thread have demonstrated, there are a fair number of active NFL kickers that aren't that far behind.
- The contract Tucker signed indicates that the market doesn't value him the way it does former 1st round picks, and former 1st round picks aren't even worth a 1st round pick once they sign a 2nd contract because they are now consuming cap space commensurate with their value.

For all those reasons, I can't see the argument for why Tucker would be worth multiple 1st round picks. I think those trying to make that case badly underestimate the extent to which football is a complicated game and a team game. If someone wants to argue he's worth a single 1st (and some people are limiting their claim to that), I can at least understand the thinking. Even then I think I disagree.

[BcRaven]

This is not the end-all, be-all, but "ESPN Fantasy football kicker rankings: NFL Week 7" :

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/footbal...-rankings-2021

Hmm, I wonder who's rated #1 by all 6 evaluators... Bc