When did player evaluations start to go south?

[Laxdad24]

First lemme say WNC and Greenwave...great post! Dilly Dilly to you both!
Now ..I posted over in the draft thread this same thing ..I think the FO “outsmarts itself”. Or like has been said here gets too cute. The other thread I used the 16 draft as an example ( much to Baldy’s remorse) with the players they could have drafted had they not traded down and taken Correa who made everyone scratch their heads. It was kinda sad. Then i did the same for the rest of that draft. As of today the Ravens passed on 3 Pro Bowlers from that draft and all where taken either when we shoulda drafted ( Correa) or after we did in later rounds. The other guys they missed are average to better than. I really think Oz and Co started to believe their own hype and they’ve missed greatly


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[DarthSizzle55]

2012. You still had a good amount of starters before that like Jimmy Smith, Pitta, Torrey, McPhee, Arthur Jones, Oher, Kruger etc.. 2012 is KO and a marginal Upshaw. Then you get into Elam Arthur Brown the year after. 2012 was the start of drafts heading south.

Ray Rice killed us. In turns of cap.

[horus13]

First lemme say WNC and Greenwave...great post! Dilly Dilly to you both!
Now ..I posted over in the draft thread this same thing ..I think the FO “outsmarts itself”. Or like has been said here gets too cute. The other thread I used the 16 draft as an example ( much to Baldy’s remorse) with the players they could have drafted had they not traded down and taken Correa who made everyone scratch their heads. It was kinda sad. Then i did the same for the rest of that draft. As of today the Ravens passed on 3 Pro Bowlers from that draft and all where taken either when we shoulda drafted ( Correa) or after we did in later rounds. The other guys they missed are average to better than. I really think Oz and Co started to believe their own hype and they’ve missed greatly


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you saying this, reminded me that Eric "guesses" every year what 2-3 players will be there when Ravens will pick and are high on our board. They're working the analytics, have got info from within the other teams, look at other's needs etc and can muster a judgement call. Some drafts they came out and said their board got depleted by the time we had to pick, for respective rounds. So, yes, I do also believe they're out-working themselves too much lately and throw that "having a feel for a player" out the window - which was the case when they took Ogden, Ray, Ed...

[rhapsody]

How stupid is it to tell Ozzie to draft more Pro Bowl players? The coaches, players, and fans vote for that, and since there are relatively few fans in the Baltimore market, we are always going to get short-changed by that process. Is that your marker for the FO? – what a great fanbase! Tell him to get quality players, if you really have to open your mouth. Btw, he knows that; that’s what he and Eric have been doing. Compare the roster now with what we had in 2013.

Stop whining about Correa and Kaufusi. Rather, look at the context of the long list of good players in the 2016 haul. It also would not surprise me if we are the best in the league at finding useful UDFAs, an effort which seems to keep improving.

If you don’t like Ozzie and Eric’s work, then John Idzik, former GM of the Jets might appeal to you. I am sure he sat down with his staff – which he included in the draft decisions, so that everybody’s fingerprints were on it (as if that protected him) – and said the equivalent of “Let’s pick just Pro Bowlers”! Such a committee approach is going to yield compromise candidates, and that may be what happened with Perriman. “I know he needs work – but he is so big and fast!”

The problem with evaluation lies mainly with the coaches.

In 2015, late in a season of losses, Daryl Smith went into a game with an injury, and played the whole game, not very well. When a reporter asked DC Pees about Daryl’s poor performance, Pees only replied that Daryl was nursing an injury, that was why. The question then should have been “Well, why (in God’s name) didn’t Arthur Brown get an extended look that day?” The answer was that Pees would get blamed if Brown stunk, but not if Daryl Smith played hurt. Oh no, the coaches had to keep Arthur in the doghouse. So, we hold onto to Arthur Brown for extra years, and quietly push him out the back door, rather than letting him get real experience, and making something of himself. If he played and stunk, we would have gotten rid of him after two years instead of more. But he never played. He took up roster space and a second round salary for extra years with zero production.

Bowser and T Williams can play, but are already underdeveloped – Harbaugh and Wink better get them on the field on D.

MM is another one who is afraid to evaluate. Why does Joe have 15 receivers getting the ball in a game, Wallace getting about 6 targets and everybody else getting 2 or 3? How is Joe supposed to know the guy he is throwing to and get into any sort of rhythm? After it became abundantly clear that Perriman doesn’t have it, why didn’t Chris Moore get more snaps? Moore is finally starting to show something as a WR, but how is he supposed to develop with 2 or 3 targets a game? The same applies to Campanaro, who was finally relatively healthy for a season. What if he stayed healthy again – what do we have in this guy? He gets open and catches, and runs – why doesn’t he get the ball? MM took the easy way out, just rotated the players. That way he cannot be blamed for making a commitment to a guy who did not pan out. However, in the setup we have now, nobody looks very good – but several young players are underdeveloped for the time they have been in a Ravens uniform.

Spineless coaching.

[GOTA]

Ray Rice killed us. In turns of cap.

That was part of it but there were many other cap misses. Monroe cost a huge amount of cap space and only played about half the games after he signed his deal. He then retired creating another big cap hit. Flacco's contract which was kept cheap in the early years at the expensive of massive cap numbers down the road. Even smaller dumb deals like extending Forsett and then cutting him and then bringing him back and then cutting him again cost more that $3 million against the cap.

Ray Rice is definitely part of it but if anything that and these other dumb cap decisions are why you need to do better in the draft because those players are cheap. Drafting well is how you overcome cap mistakes.

[rhapsody]

That was part of it but there were many other cap misses. Monroe cost a huge amount of cap space and only played about half the games after he signed his deal. He then retired creating another big cap hit. Flacco's contract which was kept cheap in the early years at the expensive of massive cap numbers down the road. Even smaller dumb deals like extending Forsett and then cutting him and then bringing him back and then cutting him again cost more that $3 million against the cap.

Ray Rice is definitely part of it but if anything that and these other dumb cap decisions are why you need to do better in the draft because those players are cheap. Drafting well is how you overcome cap mistakes.

Very true. That is why the flood of new players in the 2016 draft + UDFAs will continue to help. And in this very rich RB draft, why we should pick one, and avoid the temptation to sign a vet like, say, Frank Gore.

[Trackmaster]

2008: Flacco and Rice were home run picks. Any time you get a Superbowl MVP who's won 7 road playoff games at QB, that's a home run, elite or not. Rice topped 2000 yps twice. Everything else was pretty bad though. Tom Zbikowski and Haruki Nakamura were nice backup safeties / ST players but that's it. This draft more than any points to the imprtance of hitting on your top picks.

2009: Oher was a solid single, so was Kruger. Webb was a very good 3rd round pick. Cedric Peerman was another (pro bowl) special teamer but for other teams. Again, nearly no returns past day 2, but the top three picks contributed to the Superbowl team.

2010: Do we start with the Kindle/Cody season? Not really. No first round pick, and despite the disastrous Round 2, the later picks of Ed Dickson, Dennis Pitta and Arthur Jones turned out well, especially Pitta.

2011: Jimmy Smith is the best 1st round talent since Haloti Ngata. It's sad that injuries have withheld him from an All Pro selection. Smith a solid Round 2 pick, and McPhee/Taylor very good picks for round 5/6. This was overall a good draft.

2012: Upshaw was ok for Round 2 and Osemele was a home run taken away by free agency. Bernard Pierce had a good rookie season and helped in the playoff run (and then ???). DeAngelo Tyson was a good round 7 pick that moved on. This draft arguably has the best Round 2 and Round 7 picks in team history, albeit the bar for Round 7 is not high.

2013: Here's the one we keep referring to with the horrible picks of Elam and Brown in rounds 1/2. But after round 2, this is probably the best the Ravens have ever done. Williams in Rd 3, Simon and Juszczyk in round 4, Wagner in round 5 and Jensen in round 6. That is rare to hit on a player in four straight rounds.

2014: Mosley is almost a home run in Rd 1 -- I don't care if he's overrated and struggles vs TEs, he's a perennial award candidate. Jernigan is showing in Philly why he was a Rd 2 pick. Past that, we really start getting into guys that get hurt all the time. The string of Brooks-Gilmore-Urban-Taliaferro-Urshel-Campanaro picks have given us many, many games inactive or on IR.

2015: Here's the doozy. Perriman, Williams, Davis, Smith, Allen, Walker (RIP), Boyle, Myers, Waller. I think this is the worst draft ever for the Ravens. Only Buck Allen has avoided missing significant time for one reason or another.

2016: This draft still shows a lot of promise but it may not bear fruit. Stanley is a good pick especially when you see the drop off after the top seven. Correa/Kaufusi look like bad picks but their time is not yet done. Rounds 4-6 have a mix of developing players and people on IR. Moore, Henry, Judon and Canady are the former... Young, Lewis and Dixon the latter.

2017: just too early to tell... but Humphrey looks like another good Round 1 pick.
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So in conclusion, what's really hurting the team are the 2014-2016 drafts and all the injuries to those young players. They either suck up roster spots being inactive, or they are put on IR. They have caused cap problems as well, necessitating restructures the team would rather not have to do. A guy like say John Simon gets cut -- he doesn't help the team but he doesn't cost the team resources either. A guy like Crockett Gilmore pokes a hole in the team design and bleeds resources out a little. Too many of those and the team is bleeding too much.

Next season will be the third for the 2016 draft class. It is paramount that the Rounds 4-6 picks (along with Stanley) continue to improve. They would form a large part of team success.

The way that you've put it, it really doesn't sound as bad people as making it out to be. It really just sounds like its taken 2-3 years for these guys to develop, and then we lose them to free agency. So maybe the problem is just that we're so cap strapped that we haven't been able to hold onto guys who have good cogs for us. And, the 2011 CBA that only gives you four years for draftees instead of five years probably hurts too. So then it can come back to us overpaying for Flacco being a problem.

[HbgPARavenfan]

First lemme say WNC and Greenwave...great post! Dilly Dilly to you both!
Now ..I posted over in the draft thread this same thing ..I think the FO “outsmarts itself”. Or like has been said here gets too cute. The other thread I used the 16 draft as an example ( much to Baldy’s remorse) with the players they could have drafted had they not traded down and taken Correa who made everyone scratch their heads. It was kinda sad. Then i did the same for the rest of that draft. As of today the Ravens passed on 3 Pro Bowlers from that draft and all where taken either when we shoulda drafted ( Correa) or after we did in later rounds. The other guys they missed are average to better than. I really think Oz and Co started to believe their own hype and they’ve missed greatly


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We started to covet picks more than actual talent.... The obsession over comp picks is ridiculous to me. The front office would rather collect 3 picks at the end of rounds 4-6 than spend draft capital to get playmakers.


Somewhere along the way we really did think we were smarter than everyone else. Picks are more valuable than the players themselves. We think we're the Hoody when we arent.

Interestingly it seems the league has flipped and been more willing to part with picks to acquire players recently....another example of us falling behind the times IMO

[Laxdad24]

We started to covet picks more than actual talent.... The obsession over comp picks is ridiculous to me. The front office would rather collect 3 picks at the end of rounds 4-6 than spend draft capital to get playmakers.


Somewhere along the way we really did think we were smarter than everyone else. Picks are more valuable than the players themselves. We think we're the Hoody when we arent.

Interestingly it seems the league has flipped and been more willing to part with picks to acquire players recently....another example of us falling behind the times IMO

Yes sir. My point exactly. Picks are a tool not an investment. Use those tools to better your team. Who really cares if you had 7,8,11 or whatever picks if all the guys you get are barely JAGS. Gimme 4 or 5 solid picks of guys who are contributors and I think the fan base would be ecstatic!


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[GOTA]

Very true. That is why the flood of new players in the 2016 draft + UDFAs will continue to help. And in this very rich RB draft, why we should pick one, and avoid the temptation to sign a vet like, say, Frank Gore.

If they wanted a vet they could bring back West for cheap. I would also draft a RB and see who does what in camp

[reedfanatic]

I thought I heard a lot of our talented scouts have been getting poached, Philly to name one club, and look how they're doing

[BcRaven]

The Ravens stopped drafting great players (which was part skill but also had a lot of luck involved) and started drafting good ones instead. Most classes are still pretty deep with solid contributors/starters, but the superstars are no longer there.

It's hard to find any class this decade that would be in the bottom 1/4 of the league outside of 2015, but it's also hard to find any that would be in the top 1/4.

I beg to differ with your assessment. I think by over dwelling on defense, and having several busts, the Ravens have not over-all drafted wisely these last several years. Since the super bowl : Elam (1st - 2013), Arthur Brown (2nd - 2013), Simon (4th - 2013, let go in 2014), K.L-M (6th - 2013), Urban (4th - 2014), Correa (2nd - 2016), Kaufusi (3rd - 2016); 2017 under-used = Bowser (2nd), Wormley (3a), Tim Wms (3b). Offense = Perriman (1st - 2015)/ Maxx Williams (2nd - 2015)... 'nuff said... Bc