Josh Jacobs vs your top WR

[cleaver]

Let’s say the Ravens trade down 3-5 picks, all the pass rushers and o linemen they like are off the board, and they’re dead set on helping Lamar. I’d prefer Jacobs because that would do more to get defense’s focus off Lamar and it’d be a surprise for a WR to get more than 65 targets.

[Mmcclend]

Okay cool......

[Culex]

I think theres value to be had in the third round for a running back. Miles Sanders is a good receiving back that will be available in the third and Mike Weber might be available too and I've been on the Weber train since day zero

[jonboy79]

I liked This idea... before Free Agency.

[NC Raven]

I've been clamoring for a legit game breaker at RB since we foolishly signed Justin Forsett to a 3 year deal despite the film showing that even in his big breakout season, he only got the yards that were blocked and went down on the slightest contact. A legit back would have run for near 2,000 yards that year.

Fast forward and after... 10 years of dumpster diving at RB the Ravens FO is finally starting to at least make a few grudging noises about a "home run hitter" at RB. Well ABOUT fucking time, guys.

Having said that, I'm not going all in on Jacobs. Yes he was lightly used in college --- hey, just like Alvin Kamara!!! That means... he must be just as good as Alvin Kamara right? (so goes the poorly thought-out thought process). Other than that, I really am not seeing where all this hype comes from. He reminds me a lot of CJ Spiller the way he can reel in long throws off wheel routes. Hes got some wiggle and powers through more than his share of tackles. Looks more like a receiving back to me though; his route running and receiving skills set him apart. He's very good downfield.

But on his running plays he could be anybody we've watched on tape over the years. Go watch some Buck Allen USC film. Just looking at handoffs only, if you didn't know who was who, could you really tell the difference? Really? And I see way too many plays where he gets run down from behind -- the worst being a demoralized Ole Miss special teams unit, down 49-7, bringing him down from behind on a kickoff return.

So I'm sticking with the nasty, bad-ass NKeal Harry. He may not be the fastest or most polished guy, but he's elusive (how many 6'4 punt returners do you see actually taking 'em to the house? GTFO with that!!!), battles hard on contested catches, commits to his blocking assignments. I think he'll be a terrific chain mover but with enough wiggle and strength to break the occasional tackle one-on-one on the outside and give us a few big plays. By Ravens standards thats a godsend. And a godsend is what you want in the first round. -- even if the draft boards say its not a "good value." If they can trade back and still get him, super. I would also take Marquise Brown over him, and AJ Brown, and probably a couple other guys. So in this case it's not even close.

[one eyed bird]

I don’t believe Sanders will get out of the 2nd round, have even herd some draft talk that he maybe the first back selected

I think theres value to be had in the third round for a running back. Miles Sanders is a good receiving back that will be available in the third and Mike Weber might be available too and I've been on the Weber train since day zero

[wickedsolo]

First, signing Mark Ingram changes things in terms of "need" at RB.

I like Josh Jacobs, but there are several other backs in this draft that I think could be effective players for Baltimore.

Benny Snell is a guy I (and others on the board, namely GOTA) have been high on for a while. He's powerful, he's got above avg speed, and he'd be an every down back. I think he'll be around in rounds 3 and 4.

Miles Sanders out of Penn State is a guy that is flying under the radar, but he's a really good back. I feel the same way about Mike Weber from Ohio State.

Bryce Love would also be an intriguing option in the mid-rounds. At one point, he was considered the best back in this draft.

Justice Hill is intriguing and would be a very different type of back than Ingram, Edwards, and Dixon.

David Montgomery and Damien Harris are also backs that would look really good in Baltimore. Montgomery isn't a speedster, but he's got such nice vision and balance.


Point is, as much as I like Josh Jacobs, if they took Jacobs and passed on someone like N'Keal Harry, DK Metcalf, JJAW, Parris Campbell, or AJ Brown...I think I would be a little annoyed.

[Bhcforlife]

I have no problem with drafting a back in the first - I've wanted one in the first since the Zeke Elliott year, and they need one, as Ingram is old for a RB and Dixon/Edwards are both JAGs - but as wicked said, I would be a little annoyed if they passed on the top 1-2 receivers in the draft for them. You have to weigh need and WR is just way higher on the priority list than RB.

[wickedsolo]

I have no problem with drafting a back in the first - I've wanted one in the first since the Zeke Elliott year, and they need one, as Ingram is old for a RB and Dixon/Edwards are both JAGs - but as wicked said, I would be a little annoyed if they passed on the top 1-2 receivers in the draft for them. You have to weigh need and WR is just way higher on the priority list than RB.

I agree.

Lamar is a force multiplier for basically any RB we put in the backfield. The threat of him running makes other backs get more favorable looks.

[edromeo]

Mike Weber

[Shas]

I'm NO on this one for so many reasons.

First of all, to what degree do dominant running backs exist in the NFL anymore?

If you look at the rushing leaders over the last five seasons, very few appear multiple times in the the top five:

2018

E. Elliott
S. Barkley
T. Gurley
J. Mixon
A. Peterson

2017

K. Hunt
T. Gurley
L. Bell
L. McCoy
J. Howard

2016

E. Elliott
L. Blount
D. Johnson
D. Murray
T. Gurley

2015

A. Peterson
D. Martin
L. Murray
D. Freeman
F. Gore

2014

D. Murray
L. McCoy
L. Bell
M. Lynch
M. Forte

So, can you really expect consistent greatness at the position?

If they were to draft Jacobs I have to ask, will he become a game changer, and if so, for how many seasons is he going to sustain that level?

If I look at the top running back in each draft across this period, half appear on this list, half don't. So finding an Elliott or Gurley isn't exactly a sure bet--Is Jacobs that guy, or is he a Trent Richardson / Leonard Fournette type?

So it's not like it's a safer pick than WR. (Statistically, a greater percentage of drafted WRs bust than RBs, but that's looking at the entire draft. If you just look at first round receivers and running backs taken, I don't believe one is a "safer" pick than the other).

Also, if you scan the list, above, how many of these "game changer" running backs played for teams who went deep into the playoffs.

For me, there are just too many other ways to get production out of the position and better ways to build a dominant offense. You can call Justin Forsett or Gus Edwards or Alex Collins a fluke, but the Ravens have done well enough with these types, and in Ingram they have even better.

During this same time period, the list of game changing top receivers is much more consistent, with names like A. Brown, J. Jones, L. Fitzgerald, D. Hopkins, D. Thomas, J. Landry appearing frequently.

So, once you find a top WR, you can reasonably expect consistently high production. The same can't be said for top running backs.

You don't need to find an elite running back to be a successful offense. You do need to find an elite wide receiver to be a successful offense.

[JAB1985]

Benny Snell is a guy I (and others on the board, namely GOTA) have been high on for a while. He's powerful, he's got above avg speed, and he'd be an every down back. I think he'll be around in rounds 3 and 4.

Ive started watching some tape of Benny. I like what I see. Kind of reminds me of the conversations we had about David Johnson a few years back. the knock on him was the same as benny, short area quickness or wiggle, but they run hard and do everything well. Hes not the most explosive guy, but he has some moves, and hes got the power hell need to compensate for the lack of wiggle/burst. honestly, the similarities with him and Montgomery are there and thats the difference between the 2nd ranked RB and a guy projected on day 3. Thats huge value.

I think this just proves how needless it is to use a high pick on a RB in this draft. IMO there isnt an elite prospect at RB this year.