New Source for Stats

[Mark]

I too am unsure is Success Rate is useful when it comes to passing (and I'm hoping to switch to EPA this offseason and leave this question behind for good). In any case, here are the numbers:

target	Targets	Catches	Yards	TD	INT	FD	Success	SR
M.Andrews	98	64	852	10	3	44	53	54.1%
M.Brown	71	46	584	7	0	24	34	47.9%
W.Snead IV	46	31	339	5	2	20	24	52.2%
N.Boyle	43	31	321	2	1	13	24	55.8%
H.Hurst	39	30	349	2	0	16	27	69.2%
S.Roberts	35	21	271	2	1	18	20	57.1%
M.Ingram II	29	26	247	5	0	16	18	62.1%
M.Boykin	22	13	198	3	0	10	13	59.1%
J.Hill	15	8	70	0	0	5	8	53.3%
P.Ricard	11	8	47	1	0	3	6	54.5%
G.Edwards	7	7	45	0	0	2	5	71.4%
C.Moore	5	3	21	0	0	0	1	20.0%
J.Scott	3	1	6	0	0	0	1	33.3%

Oh look! More data suggesting the team should throw to Hayden Hurst more!

39 targets all year to Hurst is a joke,

[edromeo]

39 targets all year to Hurst is a joke,

Its hard to knock one of the best offenses in the NFL.

I get it, some people got targets that arguably would have been better going to someone else...Boykin/Hurst.

[JimZipCode]

They must think Hurst is bad in practice – because he is not used anywhere near enough.

Its hard to knock one of the best offenses in the NFL.

I get it, some people got targets that arguably would have been better going to someone else – Boykin/Hurst.

Ultimately this thing that Ed said is correct. Leading the league in scoring offense, along with #1 in DVOA (both pass & run) and the rushing record and the #1 seed; that's the rebuttal to all criticism. They were awesome, and everything else is just nitpicking.


I don't think the Hurst/Boykin target situation comes down to the coaches. Maybe to the extant that it's the result of how snaps are allocated. But otherwise I think it's Lamar. When things are easy and he has plenty of time, he'll spread the ball around. But when he feels pressure – either objective "pressure" in the form of pass rush, or mental pressure due to a tight spot in the game – Lamar tends to force it to His Boys: Mandrews and Marquise. The guys he has the relationship with. Snead in third place.

I think this is one of the Next Steps for Lamar. Be a little more even-handed with the opportunities; don't play favorites quite so much. He's still so young as a QB! Probably just a smidge more maturity will take care of that. He's got the vision already.

[JimZipCode]

I too am unsure is Success Rate is useful when it comes to passing (and I'm hoping to switch to EPA this offseason and leave this question behind for good). In any case, here are the numbers:

...

Oh look! More data suggesting the team should throw to Hayden Hurst more!

Thanks so much, OC.

[WrongBaldy]

Cream rises to the top

[JimZipCode]

I too am unsure is Success Rate is useful when it comes to passing (and I'm hoping to switch to EPA this offseason and leave this question behind for good). In any case, here are the numbers:

...

Oh look! More data suggesting the team should throw to Hayden Hurst more!

Question about your data:

• For Mark Ingram, you list 5 TD and 16 First Downs; but only 18 "successes". What up with that?
  
• Likewise for Mandrews & Snead, their TDs + First Downs exceeds their successes (but by only one each).

Mistake in your algorithm? Or something I don't understand?

[JimZipCode]

I too am unsure is Success Rate is useful when it comes to passing (and I'm hoping to switch to EPA this offseason and leave this question behind for good). In any case, here are the numbers:

...

One potentially interesting corollary of this data is, what percentage of a receiver's catches qualify as UNsuccessful plays? "Unsuccessful Catch Percentage".

Player	Targets	Catches	TD	INT	FD	Success	SR	UnsuccCatch
Chris Moore	5	3	0	0	0	1	20.0%	66.7%
Mark Ingram*	29	26	5	0	16	18	62.1%	30.8%
Gus Edwards	7	7	0	0	2	5	71.4%	28.6%
Marquise Brown	71	46	7	0	24	34	47.9%	26.1%
Patrick Ricard*	11	8	1	0	3	6	54.5%	25.0%
Nick Boyle	43	31	2	1	13	24	55.8%	22.6%
Willie Snead	46	31	5	2	20	24	52.2%	22.6%
Mark Andrews*	98	64	10	3	44	53	54.1%	17.2%
Hayden Hurst	39	30	2	0	16	27	69.2%	10.0%
Seth Roberts	35	21	2	1	18	20	57.1%	4.8%
Miles Boykin	22	13	3	0	10	13	59.1%	0.0%
Justice Hill	15	8	0	0	5	8	53.3%	0.0%
Jaleel Scott	3	1	0	0	0	1	33.3%	0.0%

I'm not sure what I think this stat tells us. It's nice that every one of Boykin's receptions was a "success", and that Seth Roberts & H Hurst convert their catches into success-plays 90%+ of the time. But at the other end of this table, isn't this merely telling us that the RBs get targeted short; they catch a high % of balls, but get tackled about 25-30% of the time? We knew that already.

Marquise's number surprises me.

Anyway: I thought there might be something here. I'm not convinced there is; I share it with the hope that maybe some of smart guys will notice something worthwhile.

[organizedchaos21]

Question about your data:

• For Mark Ingram, you list 5 TD and 16 First Downs; but only 18 "successes". What up with that?
  
• Likewise for Mandrews & Snead, their TDs + First Downs exceeds their successes (but by only one each).

Mistake in your algorithm? Or something I don't understand?

TDs are always FDs.

[JimZipCode]

TDs are always FDs.

Oh duh. I thought they were separate.

Thanks!

[Mark]

Ultimately this thing that Ed said is correct. Leading the league in scoring offense, along with #1 in DVOA (both pass & run) and the rushing record and the #1 seed; that's the rebuttal to all criticism. They were awesome, and everything else is just nitpicking.


I don't think the Hurst/Boykin target situation comes down to the coaches. Maybe to the extant that it's the result of how snaps are allocated. But otherwise I think it's Lamar. When things are easy and he has plenty of time, he'll spread the ball around. But when he feels pressure – either objective "pressure" in the form of pass rush, or mental pressure due to a tight spot in the game – Lamar tends to force it to His Boys: Mandrews and Marquise. The guys he has the relationship with. Snead in third place.

I think this is one of the Next Steps for Lamar. Be a little more even-handed with the opportunities; don't play favorites quite so much. He's still so young as a QB! Probably just a smidge more maturity will take care of that. He's got the vision already.

Coaching and playcalling determine both the snaps and who are the primary reads on passing plays.I would be interested in knowing how many passing routes each TE ran and how many were blocking snaps. I agree that LJ seems to have his favorites but we have no way of knowing whether he is or isn't going through his progressions as the play is designed. If someone has broken down film showing who was open when the ball was "forced" somewhere else, we might know a little more. Whether it is the coaches or LJ, Boyle getting more targets than Hurst does not seem to maximize what Hurst can do as a playmaker to force the defense to account for him.

[edromeo]

I think it’s pretty clear the coaches design the offense to feature Hollywood.

An easy way to tell is to look at who is the target on plays where the #1 WR is clearly the only read (screens) or clearly the primary like drags and go routes. I bet the numbers would bare this out.

[edromeo]

Looking to find out the % of screen passes in the top 5 QB's offense (Mahomes, Russ, Wentz, Dak)