Barstool Sports: Pats and Ravens in Trade Talks re Hayden Hurst

**GreatWhiteNorthRaven** · 02-25-2020, 02:29 PM

Originally Posted by Jazz1988

That's not happening. Hurst has been productive but I don't think he's been that productive for The Jaguars to want to trade down 8 spots in the first round and give up a conditional third round pick.

Lol no way I'd give up Hurst to make that trade. The Jags should be excited to get that deal.

**GOTA** · 02-25-2020, 02:31 PM

Originally Posted by JimZipCode

You're talking about volume status. Hurst's efficiency stats are better than Boyle's.

Hurst had 39 targets. Boyle had 43. That's not much of a difference.

Boyle had a lot more offensive snaps because of his blocking. Both Hurst and Andrews had the exact same number which was 457

**Mark** · 02-25-2020, 02:56 PM

Originally Posted by xiao_ke

This is where I'm at and I'm not going to just trust that the wide receivers will vastly improve in 2020. Hurst could be a real weapon if Roman would work him more into the offense. Pats made it work with Gronk and Aaron Hernandez, and they both were going to be a part of the Pats for years if Hernandez wasn't a murderer.

If Roman wouldn't work HH into a playoff game plan even with an injured Andrews, it's not happening. I love Hurst but absent an injury to Andrews, he's a blocker first and receiver second on this team. If that is the reality, I sadly think we should trade him.

**GreatWhiteNorthRaven** · 02-25-2020, 02:58 PM

Originally Posted by Mark

If Roman wouldn't work HH into a playoff game plan even with an injured Andrews, it's not happening. I love Hurst but absent an injury to Andrews, he's a blocker first and receiver second on this team. If that is the reality, I sadly think we should trade him.

TBF - Hurst's highest number of targets in a game (6) came in the playoff game.4 catches for 53 yards 1 TD

If he catches that TD that he wasn't looking for the ball and it went off his chest this would be a different conversation.

**GOTA** · 02-25-2020, 03:00 PM

Originally Posted by GreatWhiteNorthRaven

TBF - Hurst's highest number of targets in a game (6) came in the playoff game.4 catches for 53 yards 1 TD

If he catches that TD that he wasn't looking for the ball and it went off his chest this would be a different conversation.

Great point. That was one of those plays that clearly sticks in everyone's mind

**GreatWhiteNorthRaven** · 02-25-2020, 03:04 PM

Originally Posted by GOTA

Great point. That was one of those plays that clearly sticks in everyone's mind

If he catches it will be "Fuck no, he came up big in his opportunity for us" instead of "welllllllllll, we have depth and we may get a good return".

Every opportunity isn't created equal.

**Valhain** · 02-25-2020, 03:05 PM

Originally Posted by Bufflehead

Exactly. He will be a huge, known, part of the offense next year.

That's the bit that seems hard to gauge, really. You have basically Roberts and Sneads' targets to give to Hurst because Andrews, Hollywood and Boykin are seeing as many if not more targets next year. On top of maybe Hill and any other WRs we might draft.

**GreatWhiteNorthRaven** · 02-25-2020, 03:11 PM

Barstool Sports breaking news and TMZ breaking Kobe's death. WTF is this world coming to,.

**NC Raven** · 02-25-2020, 03:18 PM

The bigger play -- and maybe the only kind worth it for us to go into the season with no legit backup to Andrews -- would be if we got a mid round 2 (worth approx. 400 pts on the trade chart) for HH.

We could trade that along with pick #28 to get to the 11-13 range in the event a guy like Kinlaw drops out of the top 10.

In that kind of scenario, I could see the move. The gain would be obvious. The downside would be the passing game getting seriously impacted every time Andrews isn't 100%.

Naturally some team has to accept those terms. It isn't certain anyone would give us a mid-2 for HH, nor is it certain anybody sitting at picks 11-13 would want to drop back to 28, not take Kinlaw (or whoever) but pickup a mid round second. We likely would have to sweeten the pot with a 3rd or something. But the values involved would fit, per the trade chart anyway.

**tnsmith90** · 02-25-2020, 03:28 PM

Originally Posted by GreatWhiteNorthRaven

Hurst + 28 + 60

20 + 42

Done. 2 trade ups.

20 = Chaisson
42 = Blacklock

This seems fair. That would be roughly the equivalent of pick 53, assuming my mental math isn't off lol. I would think a mid/late 2nd rounder is about the value where the intersection of what's fair to another team, and what's worth it for us to move a talented player, meet.

It's important to remember that, as our third TE, he is replaceable. It's also important to remember that he is a talented player, and a former first rounder that hasn't done anything to suggest he won't be able to produce if given opportunities. Lastly, it's important to remember that FA, & apparently even the draft, are weak at TE this year. All in all, I think you're on the money with the value we should expect.

**Culex** · 02-25-2020, 03:29 PM

Originally Posted by GOTA

Boyle and Hurst had almost identical receiving stats last year. Hurst had 1 less catch 20 more yards and both caught 2 TDs. If Boyle is doing the same thing in the passing game and is a great blocker then he's a lot more valuable.

Never have I seen a player so overrated for having done virtually nothing until now with Hurst.

It's like saying the browns look great and they're loaded with talent but the results aren't there.

**JimZipCode** · 02-25-2020, 03:59 PM

Originally Posted by GOTA

Hurst had 39 targets. Boyle had 43. That's not much of a difference.

Not much in gross numbers, but Hurst converted more yards on less targets than Boyle. Much higher DVOA, from which I infer more first downs and stuff. Eyeball test confirms Boyle is a plodding pass-catcher and Hurst is more viable downfield.

I think the thing with Hurst, that makes him difficult to place, is that while he's the best all-around player of our TEs, he's not the best at any one thing. He's our second-best blocking TE; Boyle is clearly better. Andrews has made more of a case for himself as a pass-catcher; it's not clear to me that Andrews really is a better receiver, but he did establish himself while Hurst was injured in 2018.

It's weird: if we were in a lot of single-TE formations, then Hurst's versatility would be more valuable. Trotting him out there would tip our hand less to the D, than the other guys. But with 2 TEs on the field almost all the time, if one of them is the blocker and one of them the mover, you can see how Hurst could get leapfrogged. There's a guy better or more established than him in both roles.

Strange situation.

The foot injury in '18 really set him back.