"No Falling Skies In Baltimore" - Don Banks @ SI

**lobachevsky** · 10-16-2012, 11:00 PM

The forecast for Monday in Baltimore called for falling sky, but the forecast was considerably wrong. The Ravens may have lost a Hall of Fame-bound inside linebacker and their premier cover man to season-ending injuries -- a double whammy no team could absorb without flinching -- but that doesn't mean they lost any chance of ending this season in the big confetti shower scheduled for the New Orleans Superdome next February. Far from it.

The Ravens' reputation for being a defensive-driven team is a perception that's at least a year out of date any way, and if nothing else, the loss of Ray Lewis (torn triceps) and Lardarius Webb (torn ACL) only hastens the full and utter transition to an offensive-first mentality. Monday's news wasn't good, but it wasn't the killer blow that losing a Ray Rice, Joe Flacco or even a Torrey Smith would be for the Ravens' Super Bowl hopes. The offense drives the train now in Baltimore, and it's not stopping, even with the subtraction of the team's top cornerback and its longtime on-field leader in Lewis.

Even Billick & Dilfer have good things to say about the Crow O. Read the whole thing, it'll lift your spirits.

**grandraven** · 10-16-2012, 11:10 PM

Great article. I feel good about our chances this season.

Sent from my PH44100 using Tapatalk 2

**ThisGirlBleedsPurple** · 10-16-2012, 11:38 PM

Loved the article! Other people are recognizing that the sky is not falling in Baltimore. We as fans need to believe that too.

**Corvus Corax** · 10-16-2012, 11:50 PM

When it comes to understanding the Ravens, Don Banks is one of the very best - if not the best - national NFL writers. "Situational defense" (i.e, 'bends but doesn't break') has been very much on display this season in Baltimore.

**alienrace** · 10-17-2012, 12:35 AM

Great article!

**ballhawk** · 10-17-2012, 01:10 AM

Great article and spot on. The team has been in transition from a defensive team to an offensive team for the last couple years. Losing Webb will certainly hasten that process but losing Ray Lewis seals the deal, both symbolically and practically. On the field Ray has been a shell of his former self. He knows where he needs to be but he just cant get there like he used to. It is possible that Ellerbe could be an upgrade in that respect. As far as the leadership goes, we do still have Reed out there and hopefully Suggs soon. This also opes up the opportunity for Flacco to take the reigns of this team and look for Rice to become the vocal leader.

I think we have the pieces to do it, though i think we might be a year away before they become a dominant unit consistantly. We have seen flashes the last couple years, much more so this year. The key will be the offensive line, imo. If they can become more consistsnt and improve as the season wears on, the ravens have as good a shot as anybody.

And call me crazy, but i think another one of the bigger factors this year will be Jacoby Jones. He has surpassed all expectations in his role as #3 wr, imo, and the speed he brings opposite torrey has really opened things up.

**Ravenous1** · 10-17-2012, 01:17 AM

As I said in another thread the reality is that we lost Webb but will be starting a guy who was a first round pick and played well last week against some decent receivers. We lost Lewis and as much as I love Ray, the drop off from him to the other MLB is not what it once was. Ray will still be around and will likely still be a leader just in a different way. Add in the fact that if Suggs can bring anything to the table, that would be huge and suddenly the sky does not seem to be falling after all.

Maybe the biggest concern is that losing two guys like that does decrease your ability to absorb other injuries on the defensive side of the ball but one can only hope that we can get through the rest of the season with most the other guys in reasonable health.

**lobachevsky** · 10-17-2012, 06:40 AM

Originally Posted by Ravenous1

Maybe the biggest concern is that losing two guys like that does decrease your ability to absorb other injuries on the defensive side of the ball but one can only hope that we can get through the rest of the season with most the other guys in reasonable health.

This. The probability that another key player will incur a season-ending injury is the same as it was before Ray & Webbie went down. Ravens fans who thought that "the law of averages" would kick in after Suggs' injury got a rude awakening last Sunday. The universe doesn't care how much bad luck you've already had--it's perfectly ready, willing & able to dish you out some more.

Originally Posted by Ex-Instructor N. I. Lobachevsky

When I was teaching elementary statistics I'd ask the class, Suppose I flip a coin 10 times and it lands heads every time. How would you bet it's going to land if I flip it again? I could always find at least one student who'd answer, "Tails." Why do you think that? "Law of averages."

Then I'd explain the concept of independent events, that the probability of a heads would be the same for the 11th flip as for the first. And I'd ask, So what's the smart bet for how the coin will land? And the consensus would be that you couldn't say. Why? I'd ask, & someone would splutter, "Butbutbut you just told us that the coin flips are independent events!" And I would agree.

Then we'd work out the probability that a fair coin would land heads 10 times in a row [1 in 1,024]. So if the coin really landed heads up 10 times in a row, something really unlikely has happened--right? Right? [Pause] Or is there another possibility?

At this point most of the class would look thoroughly confused,

Either it was an unlikely occurrence--in which case the probability of either heads or tails on the next flip is 1/2--or that coin is biased in favor of landing heads up. If all we know about that coin's behavior is seeing it come up heads on the first 10 flips, the evidence is pretty strong that it will be more likely to come up heads again on the next flip.

I never said it was a "fair" coin, did I? And (handing the coin to someone in the front row) I never even said it had a "tails" side, did I?

[I never actually did this last part, because I never went to the trouble of digging up a 2-headed coin, but I damn well should have.]

(NB there's an ongoing game of chance in Tom Stoppard's play Rosenkrantz & Gildenstern Are Dead in which one of them flips a coin & the other calls it & it comes up the same every time. My English instructor claimed it meant that normal rules of probability didn't apply in the universe where the play was set. Horsecrap--it meant the game was rigged. [Which FWIW is a much more incisive reading in terms of the play's meaning, for the game really is rigged against R&G.] Spare us from people who know just enough about a subject to be hazards to themselves & others...)

Sorry, I couldn't sleep & felt like blathering...

**wickedsolo** · 10-17-2012, 08:38 AM

I'm glad someone in the media finally gets it.

I'm sure some media pundits will still claim "vaunted Ravens Defense" and how this team is "old".

**Ravenswintitle** · 10-17-2012, 08:38 AM

Great article and some really good points being made. In Cam we trust?

I do agree that it's been a long process to get the offense where they want it, and it's still ongoing.

"I think this is [Ravens offensive coordinator] Cam Cameron's finest coaching job to this point, because they're playing this thing like a full-tilt offensive team,'' Dilfer said. "With the different personnel groups they're running in there, the multiplicity in their passing game, and how they're incorporating Ray Rice into their passing game more than just the checkdowns. They've fully got it now."

**BigPlayReceiver** · 10-17-2012, 09:03 AM

*whispers* The password is...consistency.

(for the older crowd)

**srobert96** · 10-17-2012, 09:30 AM

The Ravens have historically performed better when their backs are against the wall. Losing Ray may not be all bad. This way they can put players who are better in coverage on obvious passing plays and bigger players on obvious running plays. They lose his knowledge and leadership which hurts but can be better situationally. Losing Webb is a big loss. It is time for Jimmy to step up. Cary has actually gotten better last few weeks. We will see how Chykie holds up.