Picking on one aspect - Flacco and Deep Ball

[YouGotNgata92]

Has anyone else noticed that Joe and the deep ball don't mesh well accuracy wise? This is the second time I can clearly remember Torrey Smith being wide open and him having to totally change/stall his route to catch the ball. You have to hit the man in stride and score a TD. You don't get many chances to score especially when you're wide open. Also, it's either under or over thrown (i.e. Bengals game when Torrey had to fall while running). Again, this isn't the only issue but I think this is a huge opportunity to correct.

(Joe did have a nice pass to Jones in the last game. I give him credit on that.)

[pslholder96]

Has anyone else noticed that Joe and the deep ball don't mesh well accuracy wise? This is the second time I can clearly remember Torrey Smith being wide open and him having to totally change/stall his route to catch the ball. You have to hit the man in stride and score a TD. You don't get many chances to score especially when you're wide open. Also, it's either under or over thrown (i.e. Bengals game when Torrey had to fall while running). Again, this isn't the only issue but I think this is a huge opportunity to correct.

(Joe did have a nice pass to Jones in the last game. I give him credit on that.)

Two times hardly qualifies as a disturbing trend of any kind. I'm not making excuses for Joe's performance yesterday but he did suffer a rib injury at the beginning of the 3rd quarter so this lead to some accuracy issues for sure. I don't recall if that pass to Torrey occurred before or after the injury though.

[Ravens420]

This happened a bunch last year as well. Joe needs to hit that pass if he wants to consider himself elite because elite quarterbacks hit torrey in stride.

[Carey]

His TD to Boldin last week and the 52 yarder to Torrey were perfectly thrown balls...jus saying. He had a bad half, he had 3 outstanding halfs before that one, lets not over analyze here.

[JAB1985]

there is so much involved in a deep pass. people act like its a simple pass. hardly. between WRs getting caught up in traffic, and/or the pass rush getting to Flacco its not exactly a high percentage pass. most of those he passes a lob before the play even develops and expects his WR to make a play. Thats not all on Flacco, as much as some like to make it about him.

[bmorecareful]

This happened a bunch last year as well. Joe needs to hit that pass if he wants to consider himself elite because elite quarterbacks hit torrey in stride.

I'm not sure how many are explained by this, but Torrey himself said that last year he had trouble pulling routes up short and just generally not maintaining his timing on the deep routes.

A lot of what looks like overthrows and underthrows are on the WR, not the QB. When you're throwing to a spot on the field instead of directly to an open receiver, it's a matter of timing and chemistry, not accuracy.

I expect them to continue to improve in this respect. Joe has thrown a number of spectacular balls already this season, including deep passes that were placed perfectly, like the Jones catch vs. Asomugha last game. He clearly has the capability to do it.

[YouGotNgata92]

I'm not sure how many are explained by this, but Torrey himself said that last year he had trouble pulling routes up short and just generally not maintaining his timing on the deep routes.

A lot of what looks like overthrows and underthrows are on the WR, not the QB. When you're throwing to a spot on the field instead of directly to an open receiver, it's a matter of timing and chemistry, not accuracy.

I expect them to continue to improve in this respect. Joe has thrown a number of spectacular balls already this season, including deep passes that were placed perfectly, like the Jones catch vs. Asomugha last game. He clearly has the capability to do it.

I know what everyone is saying, and he defintiely has passes that are on point. My issue is that any chance you have for an easy TD has to be completed. I was upset that Ray Rice didn't make it to the end zone when it looked like he head plenty of field in front of him.

I'm glad Joe's our QB, but maybe everyone needs to stop talking about "elite." He has to be consistent because he controls this team on offense.

On a side note, I can't believe Cam called passing plays especially on the last 2 downs. Where the F was Ray Rice the entire second half? 6 times the ravens were 3rd and two, and 6 times the offense went with a passing play. The stats are right there. When Ray touches the ball less than 20+ time we lose. We can see by the time of possession how badly not capitalizing on the passing plays can be.

[Jayc00]

:word

there is so much involved in a deep pass. people act like its a simple pass. hardly. between WRs getting caught up in traffic, and/or the pass rush getting to Flacco its not exactly a high percentage pass. most of those he passes a lob before the play even develops and expects his WR to make a play. Thats not all on Flacco, as much as some like to make it about him.

I've watched EVERY QB overthrow or underthrow their receivers. No QB is perfect. It's at least two or three times that I've seen Rogers miss this year alone, as well as P Manning. If anyone remembers Brady over threw Gonk for a wide open TD in last year's AFCCG.

No QB is perfect, and nobody's going to connect perfeclty on every deep pass. It's so much that goes into it, including taking into account that the QB could be getting hit as he's throwing it (as he did with the opening pass to Torrey last game).

[alienrace]

Didn't Torrey misplay that ball? I could have sworn it was thrown to his right, and for some reason he turned and looked left after the ball was already in the air, and then adjusted back to his right. I think that was on Torrey.

[BigPlayReceiver]

I've criticized Joe quite a bit over the years on his deep ball accuracy...specifically, that I thought it was the most noticeable part of his game that hasn't improved.

So I thought I'd poke around a bit, do some math, and see if I knew what the hell I was talking about.
Here's what I found for passes that have traveled 20 or more yards in the air...
(all QBRs are the classic nfl stat, not the ESPN stat)


2008 - 18/64 703y 7 TD 3 INTs 28% 88.8 qbr
(percent of total yards, TDs and INTs): 24%_50%_25%

2009 - 22/71 648y 7 TD 6 INTs 31% 71.1 qbr
(percent of total yards, TDs and INTs): 18%_33%_50%

2010 - 29/83 931y 12 TD 5 INTs 35% 96.4 qbr
(percent of total yards, TDs and INTs): 26%_48%_50% <in 2010 Joe had a career high in total yards (3,622), TDs (25), and a career low INTs (10)>

2011 - 25/88 816y 8 TDs 3 INTs 28% 76.7 qbr
(percent of total yards, TDs and INTs): 22%_40%_25%


Conclusion? Joe should have asked for a new contract after 2010 ...so unfortunate, that lock-out.

Seriously though, Joe's hovering around 30% deep ball accuracy. That's ~15% better than I thought he had (25% was what it felt like to me). Yet, in a vacuum, these numbers don't say much, so I will compare him to his contemporaries as well (Sanchez, Ryan, Fitzpatrick, ASmith, Rodgers, Schaub) to see how he shakes out. Of course, each QB has a different set of factors that contribute to his success (system, WR talent, OL, running game, etc.).

At any rate, this seasons numbers compared with Joe's history will go a long way in painting a better picture...certainly, it has and will factor into his contract...and maybe Cammie's too.

[Brtnder81]

Idk if you could tell on TV but it was pretty windy at the game at times. sometimes there was no wind but at others it was probably 25-30mph and the throw to Smith was right into the wind

[BigPlayReceiver]

Update through 3 games played is below the quote...

Here's what I found for passes that have traveled 20 or more yards in the air...
(all QBRs are the classic nfl stat, not the ESPN stat)


2008 - 18/64 703y 7 TD 3 INTs 28% 88.8 qbr
(percent of total yards, TDs and INTs): 24%_50%_25%

2009 - 22/71 648y 7 TD 6 INTs 31% 71.1 qbr
(percent of total yards, TDs and INTs): 18%_33%_50%

2010 - 29/83 931y 12 TD 5 INTs 35% 96.4 qbr
(percent of total yards, TDs and INTs): 26%_48%_50% <in 2010 Joe had a career high in total yards (3,622), TDs (25), and a career low INTs (10)>

2011 - 25/88 816y 8 TDs 3 INTs 28% 76.7 qbr
(percent of total yards, TDs and INTs): 22%_40%_25%

2012 thru week #3
Flacco - 9/22 290y 3 TDs 0 INT 41 comp% 127.8 qbr
That's 32% of total yards to-date, 50% of TDs to-date, and he hasn't thrown any INTs over 20 yards downfield.


Vs others (total yds / pct / rating over 20 yds / overall rating):
E. Manning - 271 / 55% / 139.2 / 97.1
Flacco - 290 / 41% / 127.8 / 101.1
Schaub - 141 / 33% / 121.5 / 102.4
Rodgers - 134 / 40% / 120.8 / 87.0
Brady - 170 / 38% / 111.9 / 97.0
Stafford - 72 / 25% / 64.6 / 83.5
Ryan - 29 / 20% / 51.3 / 114.0