ZOGBY: Scotus ruling hurting Obama

**AirFlacco** · 07-11-2012, 09:54 AM

Zogby is the famous DEM poll that got the Clinton election right. He now says that the
SCOTUS ruling on OBAMA CARE has thwarted the rise OBY was making in the polls, especially amongst Independents who want to punish him by 45-20%.

This also coincides with a steady rise for Romney in the battle ground polls.

However, Zogby says Romney still has to convince his own party he's the right man and doesn't have full support of all the conservatives but OBY should be worried about being this low in the polls and his approval rating dropped to 44% as the incumbent.

Zogby gives Mitt a +1 lead as does Rasmussen.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...easures-of-po/

**NCRAVEN** · 07-11-2012, 10:26 AM

I have a problem believing any poll nowadays.

Looking at the specifics of the polls.

IN almost EVERY single area Obama's numbers are in the negatives.
Economy
Job approval
Unemployment
Direction of the Country
Healthcare
Insert other issues here.

Yet he still leads in the polls???? Something ain't right. Either the lead in the polls are wrong or the negative numbers on the issues are wrong.

**HoustonRaven** · 07-11-2012, 10:38 AM

I believe the "Likely Voter" polls 100%.

Mittens has been absent by and large. He totally squandered the SCOTUS ruling. That was the perfect time to gin up the base but he wouldn't strike. He gave a speech and that was it. He went right back to his vacation.

And never underestimate the media in this. The number of stories they are simply ignoring is sad and blatant. They would have NEVER given W a pass if the unemployment numbers crept up, yet very few stories about that very topic were run last week.

**AirFlacco** · 07-11-2012, 11:12 AM

I'd say they both squandered the scotus ruling. OBY got a quick bump but it evaporated. The reason it's so close in the polls now is because the conservatives still aren't voting for Romney - that's the 2/3 Christians that aren't voting at all because he's a Mormon and they see it as a cult.

NC - we discussed your comment on another board about the polls and most agreed with me that Rasmussen was about the only accurate poll because he polls registered or likely voters while the others don't. That's why Quinnepec has OBY up by +8.

Then there is Dick Morris who says don't forget the un-decideds that never vote for the incumbent. As posted, Zogby says OBY should be worried about being at this point. Morris says it's gonna be a landslide because of the un-decideds.

I'm not sure about that because the 2/3 of Christians that aren't voting for Mitt. They only have themselves to blame if Mitt loses or we don't get full control back of the Congress.

I still can't make up my mind Mitt he seems so cold and awkward, another reason he's not higher in the polls. The country doesn't think he relates to the middle class, but as Rush says not voting is a vote for Obama.

**AirFlacco** · 07-11-2012, 11:14 AM

Speaking of Rush, he made the same point as NC about the polls. He pointed to the Carter election where on the eve of the election Carter actually led Reagan by 7% - 39-32%. Anderson, the 3rd party candidate had 21%.

Reagan won by a land slide. No one called it as it was the days before Rasmussen and Zogby. Carter actually conceded before the polling booths closed in California.

So maybe Morris is right afterall about those
undecideds but right now the 2 most reliable polls - Zogby and Rasmussen have Mitt up by
+1.

**HoustonRaven** · 07-11-2012, 11:24 AM

Being up one means it's a tie.

And the GOP is really wetting the bed on this as a whole as well. They have the repeal in motion but have nothing in terms of an alternative. Mittens is running his campaign on Repeal AND Replace. Any repeal attempt is going to fall on deaf ears if you don't have an alternative.

**NCRAVEN** · 07-11-2012, 11:53 AM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

Being up one means it's a tie.

And the GOP is really wetting the bed on this as a whole as well. They have the repeal in motion but have nothing in terms of an alternative. Mittens is running his campaign on Repeal AND Replace. Any repeal attempt is going to fall on deaf ears if you don't have an alternative.

I agree, I think right now they are trying to hard to just bank on anti-obamacare and anit-obama with out giving the Dem's/media a plan to use to gin up there base. I get that approach, but they gotta be more specific than just replace.

**NCRAVEN** · 07-11-2012, 11:57 AM

Wanna see something funny. View all these polls, in every single case after Romney gets a lead or tie in a swing state, here comes PPP(D) with a lead for Obama.

And THIS, is why I have a hard time believing polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1871.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1774.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1784.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1860.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-2023.html

**AirFlacco** · 07-11-2012, 12:43 PM

But again, Rasmussen who polls the registered voters gives lead or tie to Mitt in all those states. OBY had a double digit lead in VA at one point.

Wisconsin, VA and NC are battleground states where Mitt is ahead or tied but not ahead by much - no more than +3.

The margin of error is +3 points. That means it's a tie. If just 3M of those Christians vote, Mitt wins by a land slide.Anything over that is a lead and Quinnipec has OBY up by +8, which is totally ridiculous.

**StingerNLG** · 07-11-2012, 08:35 PM

Originally Posted by HoustonRaven

I believe the "Likely Voter" polls 100%.

Mittens has been absent by and large. He totally squandered the SCOTUS ruling. That was the perfect time to gin up the base but he wouldn't strike. He gave a speech and that was it. He went right back to his vacation.

And never underestimate the media in this. The number of stories they are simply ignoring is sad and blatant. They would have NEVER given W a pass if the unemployment numbers crept up, yet very few stories about that very topic were run last week.

Its not absent by being inept. Remember we are in July. The race is going to start in September. And while Obama is out there squandering money on ads that apparently no one cares about because the polls aren't moving. In the meantime Mitt is amassing his funds.

Trust me on this, I have people in the know and I'm not just saying that to sound important. Romney will be unleashing a campaign not seen by a Republican in a long time come the Convention.

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**HoustonRaven** · 07-11-2012, 10:12 PM

If that's true, it's a monumental miscalculation, IMO.

Elections are won and lost in June, not September. Ask any political science guru. People (i.e. the majority of voters not as connected to the process) formulate their choice in the spring and it's tougher than anything to get them to switch.

Mittens can unleash a torrent of whatever and it won't matter in September.

**AirFlacco** · 07-11-2012, 11:20 PM

That's not entirely true. You never know what catastrophy will happen in Sept or Oct to sway the election.

For instance, McCain was ahead by 2 pts when the market crashed in October 08. Had the market waited one month to crash he might have won, so you just don't know.

Besides, both conventions are at the end of the summer. Mitt will get his bounce in August and OBY will get his bump in the polls in Sep. That's when things really heat up.

I was just reading that McGovern's campaign was so bad that Nixon was supposed to be slightly ahead and won by 30%.

All in all, this is gonna be a tight race. The polls won't change much depending on a catastrophy like 08 or unless those conservatives are galvanized for Mitt.

That said, Palin was saying just today Mitt better start galvanizing the conservatives now.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012...es-no-mention/