Great article on the deep ball

**52decleetzu** · 12-06-2011, 01:54 PM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...oQDO_blog.html

....There are a few more than three things that can happen when you throw the football deep, and most of them are good. To the obvious three outcomes of complete, incomplete, and interception, we should add pass interference, defensive holding, and illegal contact. Coach Royal wasn’t coaching in the flag-happy NFL of 2011.

Since 2006, deep passes in the NFL (classified as deeper than 15 yards through the air) drew defensive pass interference calls at a 2.8 percent rate. Defensive holding was called on slightly under 1 percent and illegal contact was called on slightly over another 1 percent. One of the three penalties were called almost 5 percent of the time. The NFL doesn’t classify passes any deeper than 15 yds, but I would expect those rates to be even higher for very deep pass attempts.

On the other hand, there’s offensive pass interference. But that’s has been called on only 0.7 percent of deep attempts since 2006. Defensive pass interference is four times more common than its offensive counterpart, and defensive passing penalties are seven times more common. The consequences are asymmetric, as well. Defensive interference is a spot foul, while offensive interference is a 10-yard penalty and a replay of the down.

Deep attempts are naturally completed less frequently than shorter attempts. According to the NFL’s classification, deep passes are only completed 45 percent of the time, and the type of very deep attempts I’m discussing are completed even less frequently. It’s understandable for offensive coordinators to shy away from low-probability calls, but what are the other options? A typical 2-yard run into a brick wall, setting up a 2nd and 8 or 3rd and 4?

The interception rate is high for deep attempts—7 percent. But that’s misleading because so many deep attempts are the product of end-game desperation or end-of-half Hail Mary-style plays. Interceptions on 40-yard pass attempts aren’t as costly as they seem. More often than not, the ultimate effect is not much different than a fairly good punt. Third down interceptions are not as costly as first down interceptions because a punt is that much more likely. Thanks in part to an alert tackle by Santana Moss, Grossman’s interception in the third quarter was really no worse than a 3-and-out followed by a 37-yard punt. Not good, but not exactly cataclysmic either.

All things considered, with one exception I’ll discuss below, deep pass attempts net just over 0.4 EPA per attempt, while short attempts are only slightly better than break-even at 0.01 EPA. I realize those numbers are abstract, but they mean that deep attempts are well-worth the risks.

The one consideration I haven’t mentioned is sacks. Sacks are obviously more likely on deep attempts, but it’s impossible to measure how much more likely. When a pass play ends in a sack, we never know what the primary route or read was supposed to be. However, even if we assumed all sacks were the product of a deep pass play, the numbers still favor airing it out.

Just goes to show you that wile the success rate might not be that high, it is well worth it to air it out deep when you can. I really wish they would classify the deep passes more than "over 15 yards" that is a ridiculously wide rang when you have passes being thrown up to 60 yards in some cases. Those 15-20 yard passes might be completed around 50%, but a 50 yarder is nowhere close.

This I why I hate when people talk about how "we don't complete the deep ball enough" or Joe's deep ball accuracy is not good". The reality is when a 50 yard bomb is thrown from any QB the likelihood of it being complete is probably in the 25% range. No QB hits those passes regularly, just like a 55 yard field goal. Anyway I was always wondering what some specific numbers were and there they are.