Strength of victory update

**bmw600** · 12-04-2011, 10:32 PM

Since the Texans, Patriots,and Ravens all won today, I figured I would give an update on the strength of victory tiebreaker status, as this is what would determine the #1 seed if all teams won out (with the Monday Night game pending):

Ravens: 77-52 (49ers, Steelers x2,Texans, Bengals x2, Jets, Cardinals, Chargers, Browns x2, Rams, Colts), .597 percentage

Patriots: 65-64 (Jets x2, Broncos, Raiders, Cowboys, Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, Redskins, Dolphins x2, Eagles, Colts), .504 percentage, 12 games back

Texans: 59-69 (Steelers, Falcons, Bengals, Titans x2, Panthers, Bucs, Dolphins, Browns, Jaguars x2, Colts x2), .461 percentage, 17.5 games back

Since last week, the Patriots have stayed the same distance behind the Ravens, while the Texans will have either have gained a game (if Jacksonville wins) or lost 3 (if San Diego wins). This is good news for the Ravens, as the fact that there are fewer games remaining helps the Ravens at this point (and I doubt the Texans can catch them). I might see if I can develop an Excel spreadsheet to determine if the Ravens actually have clinched the strength of victory yet or not, but that will probably take some time and I'm not sure if I'll have the motivation to do it.

**Greg** · 12-04-2011, 10:37 PM

There is very little chance the Texans keep pace with the Ravens and Pats. The Ravens should have the tie-breaker with Pats if we win out. We will have the same conference record but win on common oppenents (Steelers and Jets).

**Ravenswintitle** · 12-04-2011, 10:56 PM

hey beamer, did you do this with your own calculations or from a web site? nice work

**lobachevsky** · 12-04-2011, 11:26 PM

Beamer, I ran all the scenarios last week (& would run them again this week if I could find the damn workbook). Even after last Sunday's games, it was mathematically impossible for Houston to finish higher than Baltimore in strength-of-victory. If they & the Pats were to finish 13-3, one of them (not sure which, haven't gotten that deep into the weeds) would be relegated to the #3 seed in the strength-of-victory round, whereupon they start from the first tiebreaker with the Ravens and the other remaining team--& the Ravens hold the 2-team tiebreak on both. Therefore, if the Ravens win out they are the #1 seed. Period.

(PS PM me & if I can dig up the workbook I'll e-mail you a copy.)

**bmw600** · 12-04-2011, 11:55 PM

Originally Posted by Greg

There is very little chance the Texans keep pace with the Ravens and Pats. The Ravens should have the tie-breaker with Pats if we win out. We will have the same conference record but win on common oppenents (Steelers and Jets).

I agree, but I was talking about the hypothetical. Though, after today I feel like there is more of a chance that Houston runs the table.

Originally Posted by Ravenswintitle

hey beamer, did you do this with your own calculations or from a web site? nice work

Just looked at the standings and team schedules and did the math. I also did end up putting some scenarios into Excel tonight as well.

Originally Posted by lobachevsky

Beamer, I ran all the scenarios last week (& would run them again this week if I could find the damn workbook). Even after last Sunday's games, it was mathematically impossible for Houston to finish higher than Baltimore in strength-of-victory. If they & the Pats were to finish 13-3, one of them (not sure which, haven't gotten that deep into the weeds) would be relegated to the #3 seed in the strength-of-victory round, whereupon they start from the first tiebreaker with the Ravens and the other remaining team--& the Ravens hold the 2-team tiebreak on both. Therefore, if the Ravens win out they are the #1 seed. Period.

(PS PM me & if I can dig up the workbook I'll e-mail you a copy.)

Loba, that scenario would only work if the top two teams were exactly tied for strength of victory.

For example (lets use conference record, process is the same), if the Texans finished 9-3 in conference and the Ravens and Pats finished 10-2, the Texans would be bumped and the Ravens-Pats would revert to the 1st tiebreaker.

Now, lets say the Pats had a 10-2 record, and the Ravens and Texans had 9-3 records. In that case, the Pats would win the #1 seed, and Ravens and Texans would revert to the first tiebreaker.

The last scenario has the Pats 10-2, Ravens 9-3, and Texans 8-4. In this scenario, the Pats would still be the #1 seed, with Ravens/Texans reverting to the first tiebreaker. What you suggested was that, essentially, the Texans in this scenario would bump out,and Ravens and Pats would go to a tiebreaker, but that is not the case.

In any event, I ran the simulation in Excel today, and there is no way the Pats can catch the Ravens. The worst case for the Ravens is that they end with 94 opponent wins to the Pats 92. So, for the first time, we can GUARANTEE that if the Ravens win out, they will be the #1 seed.

**myfavoriteboxer** · 12-05-2011, 12:10 AM

Originally Posted by bmw600

I agree, but I was talking about the hypothetical. Though, after today I feel like there is more of a chance that Houston runs the table.

They're at Cincinnati next week, although perhaps that matchup is less scary tonight than it was yesterday. Cincinnati's at pretty high risk of flunking out of the wild-card hunt if they lose again.

**Tyrian** · 12-05-2011, 07:30 AM

Well, if you guys are right, SoV tiebreaker is clinched (or will be). Which certainly helps.

**ravenfever** · 12-05-2011, 10:32 AM

Originally Posted by lobachevsky

Beamer, I ran all the scenarios last week (& would run them again this week if I could find the damn workbook). Even after last Sunday's games, it was mathematically impossible for Houston to finish higher than Baltimore in strength-of-victory. If they & the Pats were to finish 13-3, one of them (not sure which, haven't gotten that deep into the weeds) would be relegated to the #3 seed in the strength-of-victory round, whereupon they start from the first tiebreaker with the Ravens and the other remaining team--& the Ravens hold the 2-team tiebreak on both. Therefore, if the Ravens win out they are the #1 seed. Period.

(PS PM me & if I can dig up the workbook I'll e-mail you a copy.)

In the famous words of the late Al Davis "Just Win Baby, Just Win" then you would not have to worry about these freaking scenarios.

**York** · 12-05-2011, 11:56 AM

Originally Posted by bmw600

Since the Texans, Patriots,and Ravens all won today, I figured I would give an update on the strength of victory tiebreaker status, as this is what would determine the #1 seed if all teams won out (with the Monday Night game pending):

Ravens: 77-52 (49ers, Steelers x2,Texans, Bengals x2, Jets, Cardinals, Chargers, Browns x2, Rams, Colts), .597 percentage

Patriots: 65-64 (Jets x2, Broncos, Raiders, Cowboys, Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, Redskins, Dolphins x2, Eagles, Colts), .504 percentage, 12 games back

Texans: 59-69 (Steelers, Falcons, Bengals, Titans x2, Panthers, Bucs, Dolphins, Browns, Jaguars x2, Colts x2), .461 percentage, 17.5 games back

Since last week, the Patriots have stayed the same distance behind the Ravens, while the Texans will have either have gained a game (if Jacksonville wins) or lost 3 (if San Diego wins). This is good news for the Ravens, as the fact that there are fewer games remaining helps the Ravens at this point (and I doubt the Texans can catch them). I might see if I can develop an Excel spreadsheet to determine if the Ravens actually have clinched the strength of victory yet or not, but that will probably take some time and I'm not sure if I'll have the motivation to do it.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffs...thm=WinningPct
Try this website, it's a good one to fool around with.

**lobachevsky** · 12-05-2011, 12:24 PM

Originally Posted by bmw600

Loba, that scenario would only work if the top two teams were exactly tied for strength of victory.

Sorry, beamer, but you are simply misinformed (as was I before someone pointed this out to me):

Here's the NFL tiebreaking procedures page. Note the following under "Other Tiebreaking Procedures"):

1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild Card tie-breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to Step 1 of the two-club format to determine the winner.

3. To determine home-field priority among division-titlists, apply Wild Card tie-breakers.

Now note the following under "To Break a Tie for the Wild-Card Team", subsection "Three or More Clubs":

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

So in a BAL-HOU-NE tie at 13-3, the team with the worst strength-of-victory is eliminated (probably HOU), then the tiebreakers start over at step 1 of the 2-team procedure; HOU would be eliminated vs BAL at step 1 (head-to-head) and NE would be eliminated vs BAL at step 3 (common opponents).