Laquan vs Reed

**duffybr** · 11-14-2011, 01:06 AM

Laquan bobbled one return IIRC and we have not seen him back there since, but Reed gets several chances. Give Laquan a chance he is a gamer and alot of his "drops" are close plays with him and the DB. Cut Reed and move on.

**weezer** · 11-14-2011, 08:27 AM

can't hurt at this point, someone should be able to step up and hold onto the ball....

**MinnesotaRaven** · 11-14-2011, 10:56 AM

Activate Jalen Parmele... lol. Oh wait... How about we just down it and take it at the 20. No fumbles, No injuries, No penalties. Average field position. Wouldn't be bad in hindsight, would it?

**NC Raven** · 11-14-2011, 11:01 AM

Reed's had some good returns this year. Just left his brain at home yesterday.

**MinnesotaRaven** · 11-14-2011, 11:29 AM

Originally Posted by NC Raven

Reed's had some good returns this year. Just left his brain at home yesterday.

No. He fumbled last week too. It would have lost us the game last week too had Leach not jumped on it. You CAN'T turn the ball over on KO returns. Carr did it a few years ago to help spot the PATS 7 points and cost us the game. Better off just taking a knee in the end zone. I know it's conservative, but if Reed did that we win.

Which brings up another point. Why does moving the kick up 5 yards, mean all the conventional rules change about the kick returner running the ball out? When you are 6 yards deep you just take a knee. Not everyone is Joe McKnight or Randall Cobb...

**SC_Raven_Fan** · 11-14-2011, 11:41 AM

Originally Posted by RedSkins Fury

Activate Jalen Parmele... lol. Oh wait... How about we just down it and take it at the 20. No fumbles, No injuries, No penalties. Average field position. Wouldn't be bad in hindsight, would it?

The percentages in the NFL of a team scoring when the ball is past the 20yd line go up enough to make each increased return significant.

On average, an NFL offense needs 3.7 first downs (including the score itself) to score a touchdown. Therefore, the estimated TD rate would be 0.65^3.7 = 0.20 TDs per drive. (Note: The actual share of drives that resulted in touchdowns over the past five years is very close--19%.)

One way to think of those 4 extra yards is that they would typically require 0.4 more first downs to score. The resulting effect on the probability of scoring is 0.65^4.1 = 0.17. The difference is 0.20-0.17 = 0.03.

A difference of only 3% in the chance of scoring a TD on a typical offensive drive may seem very small, but it has a large impact on points. Given a league average of 12.4 drives per game (according to KC Joyner), the effect on two teams with a 4-yd difference in starting field position would be:

0.17 * 12.4 = 2.1 TDs per game (14.7 points)
0.20 * 12.4 = 2.5 TDs per game (17.4 points)

The result is a 0.4 TD per game advantage to a team with a 4-yd field position edge, the equivalent of 2.8 points per game.

**MinnesotaRaven** · 11-14-2011, 11:48 AM

Originally Posted by SC_Raven_Fan

The percentages in the NFL of a team scoring when the ball is past the 20yd line go up enough to make each increased return significant.

MmmmHmmm.... And when you don't have returners that can hold on to the ball... You get 0! In fact you give the other team 6. And I would say that around 30% of good returns by the Ravens get called back by Penalties.

**AmishlandRavenFan** · 11-14-2011, 10:28 PM

Question: Williams or Reed
Answer: Doss:hammer:

**Iscull** · 11-15-2011, 01:25 AM

Yeah I say bench Reed and start Doss. Can't see how it could hurt considering all Reed does is fumble kicks and drop passes. Doss can catch really well and has prior ST experiance. Please put em back there John.