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  1. #1

    Defensive Notes vs. Bears 12/20/09

    Defensive Analysis 12/20/09 vs. Bears

    There are 3 conditions for a successful application of “I told you so!” You have to be A) right, B) right for the right reasons, and C) the reasoning must have future value (or you are better off preserving your marriage by keeping your mouth shut). Allow me to demonstrate by example:

    • A useless I told you so: “I told you not to bet so much on that hand!” (Babe, I had aces and had already committed 45% of my stack pre-flop. She happened to be right as judged by the outcome, but not for the right reasons, 1 for 3 and very annoying)
    • Another bad one: “I told you not to stick your arm in that machinery!” (Whatever the outcome, it sounds like this guy learned his lesson. That’s 2 out of 3, which contrary to some old songs, is bad)
    • A correct application of I told you so: I told you “Given the Ravens’ depth at corner, I wonder if the Ravens have considered removing both he [Foxworth] and Webb from special teams.”

    The loss of Webb is about as serious as the Ravens could have suffered given the dropoff in talent to the backup. That needs to be a consideration in terms of who is on the field for special teams. Do you play Troy Smith on special teams? How about having Ray Rice return kicks? Joe Flacco could be your holder and add a dangerous new dimension to fakes that might also reduce the number of blocked kicks, but do you do that?

    Looking forward, the Ravens will need to find an answer for some dangerous quarterbacks in whatever games remain to them this season. It’s not time to give up. Zbikowski has done well stepping in for Reed and the 2008 team showed amazing heart in the playoff win at Tennessee and AFCC without a number of injured players.

    The Ravens’ defensive statistics (excluding 1 kneel):

    Overall: 63 plays, 221 yards, 3.5 YPPA

    Vs. the Run: 29 carries, 123 yards, 4.2 YPC

    Vs. the Pass: 34 pass plays, 98 yards, 2.9 YPP

    By number of Pass Rushers:
    3: None
    4: 21/80, 3.8 YPP, 1 TO
    5: 11/19, 1.7 YPP, 1 sack, 3 TO
    6: 2/-1, -0.5 YPP, 1 sack
    7: None

    By number of Defensive Backs:
    3: 2/0, 0.0 YPPA
    4: 29/101, 3.5 YPPA, 1 sack, 2 TO
    5: 28/117, 4.2 YPPA, 2 TO
    6: 4/3, 0.8 YPPA, 1 sack, 1 TO
    7: None

    Individual notes:

    • The most unusual starter of the year award goes to…Cary Williams. No, I’m not talking about next week. He was in for the first snap of the game only versus the Bears, playing LCB in the nickel as Cutler completed to Bennett for a gain of 30. Williams crossed the field and was credited with pushing Bennett out of bounds. Why was Williams out there? Carr played nickel the remainder of the game, so I thought it might be an equipment issue a la Thurman Thomas. That does not appear to be the case as Chris was in for the kickoff and didn’t take a hit. Is it possible that Harbaugh gave the start to Williams as a reward for some effort during the week or denied it to Carr for some transgression?

    • While we’re doing awards, the most unrecognized debut goes to Marcus Paschal, who played 3 snaps Sunday, but appears as DNP in the Gamebook and NFL stats. He played 3 games (or was it 4? I’m using the same source) for the Eagles in 2007, so at least he didn’t miss his NFL debut. Paschal’s 3 snaps were all successful 3rd-down stops as a safety in the dime.

    • It may take several weeks for the Ravens to feel the loss of Lardarius Webb. He turned in a fine rookie season in less than 400 defensive snaps. He also was one of the most dangerous kick returners and made an impact in punt coverage. He literally forced his way onto the field with play that seemed to improve each game from just a few snaps to every-down corner. Walking back to the car, in blissful ignorance of Webb’s injury, it was difficult not to be optimistic about the Ravens’ post-season chances:

    • The Ravens have a number of high-variance playmakers who appear to be peaking (Rice, Williams, Webb, Flacco)
    • The Ravens’ defense has played well since the bye despite injuries to Reed and Suggs
    • The other AFC Wild Card contenders have all shown themselves to have serious flaws
    • Of the other AFC division leaders and based on recent play, San Diego appears to be the most dominant team despite Indy’s 14-0 record. I would say there is tremendous parity in the playoff field with no team as good as last year’s Titans or Steelers.
    • The Ravens had a good chance to play the weakest of the division leaders, the Bengals, in the first round
    • The Ravens are well rested after consecutive home blowouts and heading to face a Pittsburgh team that was in a scrap for their playoff life

    Once we heard the news on Webb and had dispensed with the obligatory expletives, the depth of the fall began to set in. Considering only the in-house options:

    • I don’t have anything to go on with Cary Williams. I suspect he’s not the answer on the outside based on his late-season availability, but he started at LCB in the nickel for some reason. If he was a real liability there, I would guess Mattison would have moved Webb outside.
    • Frank Walker played reasonably well down the stretch last season, but was benched for 3 games after being torched at Minnesota. Excepting a bad PI at GB, he’s played decently in very sparse (and usually in mop up time) duty. He may be the best option the Ravens have on the outside.
    • Chris Carr has played primarily on the outside in the nickel the past few weeks as the Ravens have kept Webb on the slot receiver. He’s played meaningful snaps and he has not played terribly. What I don’t like about Carr’s play, however, is that he has not fared well against better competition (Cincinnati, Green Bay).

    One other player I had hoped was available was Evan Oglesby. Unfortunately, the fact that he was picked up by the Dolphins prior to 12/13 tells you something about the pool of available talent at corner.

    • Once again the defense was able to rest in the 4th quarter with Johnson, Lewis, and Suggs all taking a break. What I’d like to know if why the Ravens did not give more snaps to Cary Williams in cleanup time. Walker needed more reps on the outside, but Foxworth has played almost every snap. Regardless of what his detractors say now, he is by far the Ravens’ best corner now. Williams, on the other hand, needed a trial by fire, however brief. There were 21 defensive snaps after Webb’s injury, which would have been ideal.

    • Foxworth had the best afternoon of his 14-game Ravens career with 2 picks, another PD, and 4 tackles. He was the single biggest reason why the Ravens held 2 separate QBs to ratings less than 10 (Cutler 7.9, Hanie 8.3). If you look at the Gamebook or other box score, you’ll notice the Bears’ aggregate QB rating was 7.0 which seems odd, but is accurate. Finishing below the minimum standard for any of 3 categories (excluding TDs) is sometimes called “digging a hole” for your QB rating (when aggregated with other results, it creates an even bigger negative effect) and the dynamic duo each brought a shovel. It was the worst game (by rating) of Cutler’s career, surpassing the previous low of 32.7 on 12/24/07 vs. the Chargers.

    • The game reminded me of the 2001 opener in Baltimore. In that game, the Bears first drive featured a number of WR screens, just like Sunday. Grbac had a huge day (24 of 30, 262 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT) on 9/9/01 and was instantly proclaimed “the quarterback we’ve always needed”. The Ravens finally took the lead in the 3rd quarter and won 17-6 on touchdowns by Sam Gash and Terry Allen. In another journey of tangential football history, that was the 15th and final TD of Gash’s 12-year career. Of those 15 TDs, 13 came as a receiver.

    • The Ravens did not line up with any down linemen (Q2, 15:00) on 3rd and 6. They rushed 4 with Ellerbe dropping to coverage. Jameel McClain had a free run at Cutler, but the ball was out and complete to Knox who was tackled by Webb. The Browns rushed from a similar defensive formation in their week 14 win versus the Steelers and consistently baffled the Steelers who would use up much of the play clock waiting for the Browns to get down so they could set their blocking assignments.

    • While Cutler’s interception total does not convey a high level of stat consciousness, he refused to slide and take a sack (Q2, 1:38) when he was going to go down 4 yards short of the 1st down on 3rd and 5. It wasn’t a career extending move.

    • Devin Aromashodu, who had 8 of his previous 17 career catches in week 14, was targeted 10 times by Cutler but made just 2 catches. That was primarily a function of Foxworth.

    • Until relieved midway through Q3, Suggs played every snap. Kruger then replaced Suggs and played the remainder of the game. JJ. Barnes relieved Johnson for 3 3rd down plays in the first half, then replaced Jarret when he was pulled late in the 3rd period. McClain played 3 snaps in the 1st half, then replaced Ray when he departed in Q4. Ellerbe played the entire game with Gooden inactive. What’s the point? The Ravens, more than any other time this season, played a set lineup with very little substitution for rest. Sure, the down linemen rotated, but the linebackers and base DBs were the same for all but a handful of plays.

    • The Ravens 3 biggest defensive plays:

    • Foxworth’s first interception (Q1, 13:43). The Ravens would score 5 plays later and never relinquished the lead.
    • Johnson’s interception (Q1, 5:36). It stalled an 11-play drive in the red zone and the Ravens would then drive 81 yards to go up 14-0.
    • The Ravens 4th-down stop at the 1-yard line. Foxworth had coverage on Olsen and Suggs hit Cutler as he overthrew. The play ended the Bears’ 19-play drive.





  2. #2

    Re: Defensive Notes vs. Bears 12/20/09

    Carr was announced as the starter yesterday.





  3. #3
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    Re: Defensive Notes vs. Bears 12/20/09

    Quote Originally Posted by Filmstudy View Post
    • The most unusual starter of the year award goes to…Cary Williams. No, I’m not talking about next week. He was in for the first snap of the game only versus the Bears, playing LCB in the nickel as Cutler completed to Bennett for a gain of 30. Williams crossed the field and was credited with pushing Bennett out of bounds. Why was Williams out there? Carr played nickel the remainder of the game, so I thought it might be an equipment issue a la Thurman Thomas. That does not appear to be the case as Chris was in for the kickoff and didn’t take a hit. Is it possible that Harbaugh gave the start to Williams as a reward for some effort during the week or denied it to Carr for some transgression?
    Great info as always, thanks Filmstudy

    I'd guess it was equipment. not Thomas losing his helmet, but maybe a broken shoestring (or twisted jock ;) ), that caused a little delay in Carr getting back, otherwise you are right, it doesn't make any real sense.
    Great pickup, I had totally missed that.
    at one point of my life I was exactly Pi years old





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