Home Playoff Game Scenarios 12/02/2008

**Galen Sevinne** · 12-02-2008, 09:41 AM

As we all start receiving our playoff ticket invoices in the mail this week, what are the chances of actually having a home playoff game? There are a couple scenarios but they mostly hinge on the Ravens beating Pittsburgh in the division. If we lose to Pittsburgh at home, it is really difficult to have a home playoff game.

SCENARIO ONE

How the Ravens get the #2 seed which like 2006, gives us the bye week and playofff week #2 at home. Certainly the ideal situation.

1. We beat Pittsburgh

2. We win the rest of our games

3. Pittsburgh must lose one more game with Dallas, this weekend, being the best opportunity. If Dallas loses this week in Pittsburgh, Dallas becomes the 7th seed in the NFC and will then need help to even back in as a wildcard team. They have been playing well and need the win. It should be a great game. Pittsburgh also has in addition to the Ravens and Dallas, Cleveland which Pittsburgh will win seeing that Cleveland has no QB now and everyone is throwing everyone else under the bus on that team, and Tennessee but this game is the 2nd to last game of the season and I am sure Tennessee will be resting players making it an easier win for Pittsburgh. Basically, Pittsburgh has to lose this Sunday to Dallas.

If the Ravens beat Pittsburgh and both teams win the remaining games. Pittsburgh wins the tiebreaker by tiebreaker rule #5….”strength of victory” which as of today they hold a one game lead but by nature of Pittsburgh winning the remaining games, they would have to beat Tennessee which would certainly seal #5 tiebreaker for them.

4. If the Ravens win out, Pittsburgh loses one more game (Dallas) and the Jets win out and end with the same record as the Ravens 12-4, the Ravens win the tie breaker rule #2….”conference record”.

If we beat Pittsburgh but lose another game, Pittsburgh must lose two more games (Dallas +1 more) and the Jets would have to lose one more game (we still win the tiebreaker), we would also beat Denver in a tiebreaker as well if we only have 5 losses.

SCENARIO TWO

We could get a home playoff game as a 3 or 4 seed but still need to win the division against Pittsburgh but the scenario of winning the division against Pittsburgh but allowing the Jets or Broncos to become the #2 seed really requires us to lose 2 games which requires Pittsburgh to lose three games which I just don't see happening.

SCENARIO #3 - WILDCARD

Yes we could win a wildcard seed but this doesn't allow for a home game unless we win our wild card game as the #5 seed AND our second round playoff game against the #1 (Titans) all on the road. The Colts who would have to be the #6 seed and then they would have to win their 1st round playoff game and their second round playoff game against the #2 seed. We would then face the Colts at home in the AFC Championship game.

This would be tough and it would be tough to override the Colts for the #5 seed. The Ravens would have to win out and the Colts would have to lose one more game since they win in a head to head tiebreaker against us for the #5 seed. So the Colts would have to lose to either Cincy, Detroit, Jax or Tennessee in the last game of the season where Tennessee will be resting players. I don’t see that happening.

So in review, the best way for the Ravens to get a home playoff game is for the Ravens to win out and Pittsburgh lose to Dallas. In that case, we are the second seed.

So when get ready to pay for those playoff tickets (or float the Ravens an interest free loan for four months) keep these scenarios in mind.
Anyone wanting to correct my analysis, please feel free. This kind of stuff is not my strong point.

**SHORTTRACK** · 12-02-2008, 02:19 PM

GS-

great scenarios...to me they look correct. It seems that really everything hinges on Dallas this weekend.

**crazyraven** · 12-02-2008, 02:45 PM

We Just need to keep winning. All the other things will work itself out.

I'd love to have a home playoff game preferably with a bye week.

**ravenfever_com** · 12-02-2008, 05:04 PM

The only thing that matters now is to WIN out all the WAY !!! We hold our cards that way!

**Beerracuda** · 12-02-2008, 05:28 PM

If we have to lose another game this season, hopefully it will be against one of the two remaining NFC teams (Washington or Dallas). That way, we won't lose our tiebreaker edge for the wildcard. At least that's how I see it. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

**SHORTTRACK** · 12-02-2008, 05:35 PM

For the division, those games would be involved in the common opponent tie-breaker which is the 3rd tie breaker.

As far as the Wildcard goes yes losing to either of the NFC teams would be better than either of the AFC games

Basically for the Division Pitt really needs to lose this Sunday v Dallas

**riprulz8** · 12-02-2008, 05:35 PM

The crazy thing about how things are playing out is that even if we win out and finish at 12-4 we could still be the #6 seed.

If we win out (beating Pitt) and Pitt wins 3 out of 4, we both finish at 12-4 but, as Galen said, Pittsburgh would win the division on account of their higher strength of schedule.

Without winning the division, we would be relegated to grabbing one of the two wildcard spots. However, with Indy's weak schedule, it looks as though they could easily win out, finishing at 12-4 and since they beat us head to head, would get the #5 seed which leaves us with the #6 seed and no way of getting a home playoff game.

Do you guys recall a time where a 12-4 team has received the last spot in either conference (after the merger of course)?

**norfolkraven** · 12-02-2008, 11:26 PM

Originally Posted by riprulz8

The crazy thing about how things are playing out is that even if we win out and finish at 12-4 we could still be the #6 seed.

If we win out (beating Pitt) and Pitt wins 3 out of 4, we both finish at 12-4 but, as Galen said, Pittsburgh would win the division on account of their higher strength of schedule.

Without winning the division, we would be relegated to grabbing one of the two wildcard spots. However, with Indy's weak schedule, it looks as though they could easily win out, finishing at 12-4 and since they beat us head to head, would get the #5 seed which leaves us with the #6 seed and no way of getting a home playoff game.

Do you guys recall a time where a 12-4 team has received the last spot in either conference (after the merger of course)?

I was just having this exact same thought the other night. I still don't believe it'll happen, but it is certainly plausible.

**FredGrau** · 12-03-2008, 10:09 AM

Lets make the following assumptions:
-We win out except we lose at Dallas.
-Pissburgh beats Dallas, loses to us, and loses at Tennessee.

Both teams finish 11-5. Here's the tie-breaker scenario.

1. Head-to-head. Both are 1-1. Tie.

2. Division. Both are 5-1. Tie.

3. Common opponents. There are only 2 uncommon opponents. We beat both Miami and Oakland. Pissburgh beat both New England and San Diego. Tie.

4. Conference record. Whoever has the worst record against the NFC East has the better AFC conference record. If Pissburgh beats Dallas and we lose at Dallas, both teams are 2-2 against the NFC East. Tie.

5. Strength of Victory. I have absolutely no clue, but we must keep an eye on this. The tie breaker can come to this. I think we may be in trouble here - we may have to root for Miami and Oakland, and against New England and San Diego.

6. Strength of schedule. See above.

**SHORTTRACK** · 12-03-2008, 11:04 AM

Fred-

I would rather assume Pitt loses to Dallas this weekend... more than likely Tenn will have their seeding wrapped up by Week 16 when they play Pitt if so the game won't mean anything to them and Fischer could pull starters early and/or rest some of them altogether.

Tie breaker # 3 is Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.

The only way for the Ravens to win with this TB is for them to win at least 2/3 (I agree I think they will lose in Dallas) and for Pitt to lose the 2 remaining then the Ravens would be 4-4 and Pitt would be 3-5.

If Pitt wins 1/2 and the Ravens win 2/3 its a tie

If Pitt wins both its over

Pitt:
Won: Wash, Hou, Jax
Lost: Philly, Indy, NYG

to play: Dallas,Tenn

Baltimore:
Won: Philly, Hous,
Lost: Tenn, NYG, Indy

to play: Wash, Dallas, Jax

Tie-Breaker # 4 is Conference record (AFC) the NFC doesn't matter

if both teams win Sunday they will be

Steelers 10-3 Div 4-0 AFC 8-1
Ravens 9-4 Div 4-1 AFC 7-3

if the Ravens then beat the Steelers

Steelers 10-4 Div 4-1 AFC 8-2
Ravens 10-4 Div 5-1 AFC 8-3

they both lose the following week (Balt to Dallas and Pitt to Tenn-although if Tenn has nothing to play for they may pull some starters early)

Steelers 10-5 Div 4-1 AFC 8-3
Ravens 10-5 Div 5-1 AFC 8-3

they both win the following week (Pitt over Clev, Balt over Jax)

Steelers 11-5 Div 5-1 AFC 9-3
Ravens 11-5 Div 5-1 AFC 9-3

Unfortunately for the Division (unless the Ravens win out and the Steelers lose to the Ravens + 1 other remaining game) the Dall & Tenn outcomes loom large as far as the Tie-breakers are concerned.

**Galen Sevinne** · 12-03-2008, 11:54 AM

I just don't see Tennessee being in a position when they play the Steelers to need the win. Titans will beat Cleveland meaning at worst they can only lose 4 games this season. We have to beat Pittsburgh to make any of this matter so assume Steelers lose to us.

That puts four other teams that can also make it through the season with only four losses; jets, ravens, steelers and colts.

The good thing is that Titans have to play the Colts and Steelers and the Jets have the tiebreaker advantage over the Titans if both lose 4. If the Titans beat Houston, they win the #1 seed assuming the Ravens beat the Steelers (which this entire argument is predicated on anyway).

So if Titans lose to Houston, they go into the pittsburgh game still able to lose 4 games which as long as the colts and jets are still at only 4 losses will make that Pitt-Titans game meaningful. Tennessee losing to Houston in Houston would be possible but they have to see that as their best chance to clinch #1 seed and I imagine they will be up to the task.

The ravens have tough sledding ahead to ge the #2 seed...beat D.C., Pitt, Dallas on road in their final game at the their stadium. But that is what Super Bowl teams do. We need the game in Dallas.

**PurplePill** · 12-03-2008, 01:45 PM

Originally Posted by Galen Sevinne

SCENARIO TWO

We could get a home playoff game as a 3 or 4 seed but still need to win the division against Pittsburgh but the scenario of winning the division against Pittsburgh but allowing the Jets or Broncos to become the #2 seed really requires us to lose 2 games which requires Pittsburgh to lose three games which I just don't see happening.

I don't understand this part. If we are a 3 or 4 seed that means we are a division winner right? I thought all four division winners are guaranteed a home playoff game regardless of the wild card teams' records???