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  1. #421
    Join Date
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    Balt-Wash corridor
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    Re: The Lamar disrespect is INSANE.

    Quote Originally Posted by jonboy79 View Post
    Who said they did?
    In both cases 25 teams elected to pass more often.
    If you're going to say "more often", you should really be using attempts-per-game.

    Lamar drops further in Att/G, though still top ⅓. Probably a lot higher, since CFB Reference cuts off the bottom of the passers group (requires a minimum attempts per game). But among passers who qualify, Lamar was in the top ⅓ in Att/G.

    There were three teams around 50 attempts per game in 2016: Cal (Davis Webb), Tex Tech (Mahomes), Wash St (Luke Falk).

    Some of the other QBs with more attempts per game than Lamar that year included:
    Josh Rosen
    Drew Lock
    Cooper Rush
    Mason Rudolph
    Mitch Trubisky

    Other than Josh Rosen, the first-rd picks who went in the same draft as Lamar all had lower attempts-per-game:

    2016 College Stats
    Quarterback Atts/G For With
    Lamar 31.5 #21 Lville James Quick, Cole Hikutini, Jamari Staples, Jaylen Smith
    Sam Darnold 28.2 #3 USC JuJu Smith-Schuster, Deontay Burnett, Darreus Rogers, freshman Michael Pittman Jr
    Baker Mayfield 27.5 #5 Okla Dede Westbrook, Mark Andrews, Joe Mixon
    Josh Allen 26.6 Wyoming no one? Tanner Gentry, Jake Maulhardt

    If I understand your argument correctly, you're saying that total pass attempts (or attempts per game) tells us how committed each coaching staff is to the passing game, and how much they believe in the quarterback's passing ability. Right?

    Then that would mean:

    The Louisville coaching staff was more committed to the passing game and had more belief in Lamar's passing ability than the Oklahoma staff did in Baker Mayfield throwing to Dede Westbrook and Mark Andrews; and more than the Cal staff did in Sam Darnold throwing to JuJu Smith-Schuster.

    Is that what you're trying to say?


    Quote Originally Posted by jonboy79 View Post
    Also your percentages would be correct if each and every starter played every snap of their teamís seasons, which isnít true.
    Eh. It's close enough. Lamar threw 94% of the pass attempts for Lville that year (Kyle Bolin thew 27 passes).

    We can do teams if you'd prefer. Louisville was in the 62nd %ile in pass attempts-per-game. Most D1 teams threw less than they did; 62%.

    Lamar was a 19yo true sophomore that year. He threw more the following season, and Louisville was in the top quartile of pass attempts per game across all of D1.


    Quote Originally Posted by jonboy79 View Post
    And still, not one coach or program decides to build at the WR position and throw a ton with Lamar as their QB. Not one.
    That just isn't true.

    For one thing it's beyond stupid to suggest that Petrino wasn't trying to recruit the very best WRs he could get. College recruiting is not zero-sum the way draft picks are in the NFL: signing a 4-star doesn't use up your 4-star picks. Every college coach is trying to get as many of the best players across all position groups as they can. On the 247 site, WR James Quick (who played with Lamar in 2016) is still listed as the 4th-highest rated recruit Lville has had this century (behind Michael Bush & Brian Brohm; ahead of Teddy Bridge).

    Their 2017 recruiting class had 24 players and was rated #34 in the country. It included 4-star WR Josh Johnson, and 3-stars WR Justin Johnson, WR Corey Reed and slash Malik Cunningham. (All recruiting data from 247.)

    Here's the distribution of LVille's 2017 recruits, a haul Ozzie would approve of:
    DBs 7
    Front7 5
    OL 5
    WR 4
    RB 1
    TE 1
    LS 1
    That looks like a lot more commitment to the WR group than to any other offensive position (besides OL). I've counted Malik with the WRs, so maybe that overstates it; but it would still be 3 WRs + 1 QB.



    For another thing, the Ravens also tried. From 2018 thru 2021 they spent more draft capital on pass-catchers than any other team:

    2018 1st Hayden Hurst
    2018 3rd Mark Andrews
    2018 4th Jaleel Scott
    2018 5th Jordan Lasley
    2019 1st Marquise Brown
    2019 3rd The incomparable Miles Boykin
    2020 3rd Devin Duvernay
    2020 6th James Proche
    2021 1st Rashod Bateman
    2021 4th Tylan Wallace
    A ridiculous amount of draft capital! Three 1sts in four drafts, three 3rds, two 4ths and a couple later-rd picks.
    They absolutely "decided to build at the WR position" (or more broadly the pass-catching positions).
    For various reasons they weren't successful.

    Last year they finally dipped into the free agent pool. I'm sure DeCosta was philosophically opposed to it Ė it's a bad market for "value" Ė but they had to do something. Their WR group was in dire shape.

    The move paid off. Lamar won his second MVP award, and the team made the CCG, with Lamar posting his lowest rushes-per-game as an NFL starter.





  2. #422

    Re: The Lamar disrespect is INSANE.

    Quote Originally Posted by MeadowWoodRaven View Post
    Can anyone here name a QB that successfully changed their game from whatever made them good in college to something entirely different in the pros? Why would a 5 billion dollar company bank on this transition to be successful? Because it would "feel good"?

    Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
    Because that 5 billion dollar company "should' be smart enough to realize that a run heavy approach without some semblance of a capable pass offense won't win a superbowl, and winning superbowls is why they do what they do.

    If you disagree, please feel free to name the last superbowl winner that had a strong run game without having a capable passing game.





  3. #423

    Re: The Lamar disrespect is INSANE.

    Quote Originally Posted by purple_city39 View Post
    Because that 5 billion dollar company "should' be smart enough to realize that a run heavy approach without some semblance of a capable pass offense won't win a superbowl, and winning superbowls is why they do what they do.

    If you disagree, please feel free to name the last superbowl winner that had a strong run game without having a capable passing game.
    I would describe the Ravens as having better then "some semblance" of a pass game.

    Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk





  4. #424

    Re: The Lamar disrespect is INSANE.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Excellector View Post
    It's very much a personnel issue. KC went into the game wanting us to throw, because they knew their CB duo could handle our WRs. We moved the ball at will because our QB was our leading rusher and teams always had to account for that. Not because he was throwing to some Top 5 WR duo. So to give him that type of duo would actually force playoff defenses to back off. You run 12 Personnel with Zay on one side and the newly acquired WR on the other. Likely and Andrews on the field together. Something we actually didn't see much of last year.
    That other WR will be Bateman and he will pretty much show how good he is with healed feets.

    KC challenged both the personnel and coaches. Both failed.





  5. #425

    Re: The Lamar disrespect is INSANE.

    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    If you're going to say "more often", you should really be using attempts-per-game.

    Lamar drops further in Att/G, though still top ⅓. Probably a lot higher, since CFB Reference cuts off the bottom of the passers group (requires a minimum attempts per game). But among passers who qualify, Lamar was in the top ⅓ in Att/G.

    There were three teams around 50 attempts per game in 2016: Cal (Davis Webb), Tex Tech (Mahomes), Wash St (Luke Falk).

    Some of the other QBs with more attempts per game than Lamar that year included:
    Josh Rosen
    Drew Lock
    Cooper Rush
    Mason Rudolph
    Mitch Trubisky

    Other than Josh Rosen, the first-rd picks who went in the same draft as Lamar all had lower attempts-per-game:

    2016 College Stats
    Quarterback Atts/G For With
    Lamar 31.5 #21 Lville James Quick, Cole Hikutini, Jamari Staples, Jaylen Smith
    Sam Darnold 28.2 #3 USC JuJu Smith-Schuster, Deontay Burnett, Darreus Rogers, freshmanMichael Pittman Jr
    Baker Mayfield 27.5 #5 Okla Dede Westbrook, Mark Andrews, Joe Mixon
    Josh Allen 26.6 Wyoming no one? Tanner Gentry, Jake Maulhardt

    If I understand your argument correctly, you're saying that total pass attempts (or attempts per game) tells us how committed each coaching staff is to the passing game, and how much they believe in the quarterback's passing ability. Right?

    Then that would mean:

    The Louisville coaching staff was more committed to the passing game and had more belief in Lamar's passing ability than the Oklahoma staff did in Baker Mayfield throwing to Dede Westbrook and Mark Andrews; and more than the Cal staff did in Sam Darnold throwing to JuJu Smith-Schuster.

    Is that what you're trying to say?


    Eh. It's close enough. Lamar threw 94% of the pass attempts for Lville that year (Kyle Bolin thew 27 passes).

    We can do teams if you'd prefer. Louisville was in the 62nd %ile in pass attempts-per-game. Most D1 teams threw less than they did; 62%.

    Lamar was a 19yo true sophomore that year. He threw more the following season, and Louisville was in the top quartile of pass attempts per game across all of D1.


    That just isn't true.

    For one thing it's beyond stupid to suggest that Petrino wasn't trying to recruit the very best WRs he could get. College recruiting is not zero-sum the way draft picks are in the NFL: signing a 4-star doesn't use up your 4-star picks. Every college coach is trying to get as many of the best players across all position groups as they can. On the 247 site, WR James Quick (who played with Lamar in 2016) is still listed as the 4th-highest rated recruit Lville has had this century (behind Michael Bush & Brian Brohm; ahead of Teddy Bridge).

    Their 2017 recruiting class had 24 players and was rated #34 in the country. It included 4-star WR Josh Johnson, and 3-stars WR Justin Johnson, WR Corey Reed and slash Malik Cunningham. (All recruiting data from 247.)

    Here's the distribution of LVille's 2017 recruits, a haul Ozzie would approve of:
    DBs 7
    Front7 5
    OL 5
    WR 4
    RB 1
    TE 1
    LS 1
    That looks like a lot more commitment to the WR group than to any other offensive position (besides OL). I've counted Malik with the WRs, so maybe that overstates it; but it would still be 3 WRs + 1 QB.



    For another thing, the Ravens also tried. From 2018 thru 2021 they spent more draft capital on pass-catchers than any other team:

    2018 1st Hayden Hurst
    2018 3rd Mark Andrews
    2018 4th Jaleel Scott
    2018 5th Jordan Lasley
    2019 1st Marquise Brown
    2019 3rd The incomparable Miles Boykin
    2020 3rd Devin Duvernay
    2020 6th James Proche
    2021 1st Rashod Bateman
    2021 4th Tylan Wallace
    A ridiculous amount of draft capital! Three 1sts in four drafts, three 3rds, two 4ths and a couple later-rd picks.
    They absolutely "decided to build at the WR position" (or more broadly the pass-catching positions).
    For various reasons they weren't successful.

    Last year they finally dipped into the free agent pool. I'm sure DeCosta was philosophically opposed to it Ė it's a bad market for "value" Ė but they had to do something. Their WR group was in dire shape.

    The move paid off. Lamar won his second MVP award, and the team made the CCG, with Lamar posting his lowest rushes-per-game as an NFL starter.
    So every college football team had a starter throw for 97% of their passes?

    Also, Louisville drops to 55th is pass/run ratio.

    They ran a lot of plays.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk





  6. #426

    Re: The Lamar disrespect is INSANE.

    I believe that the perception of Lamar has been skewed by his usually having a world class defense and special teams year in year out. Lamar completes the puzzle by being the guaranteed yards and time of possession he creates. And the TD's. All the TD's. Until we have a new Head Coach I don't see the big picture changing. It shouldn't, it's already working.

    Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk





  7. #427

    Re: The Lamar disrespect is INSANE.

    So much of run to pass ratio is dictated by the game situation. I donít think our coaching staff necessarily thinks of us as run heavy. I think they see us as balanced. And game scenario dictates how much weíre throwing the ball.

    Last year we lead almost every game. Time of possession with a lead set some kind of all time mark. We absolutely blew out some really good teams who were practically never in the game. All that contributed to how much we ran vs passed. And stats, other than wins and losses, will never be a factor in our game planning or play calling.

    So Iím not really worried about how much we pass. Iím expecting our run game to be more dominating than last year too. Henry and an improved O Line is what we were promised.

    Harbs also spoke directly to the idea that we need to make teams pay for trying to man us up on the outside and load up against the run. So itís a team goal to be able to win in that situation. The team, to this point, has identified Bateman as a key piece to making that happen. Heís the most upgradable piece of our offense, like pass rusher is to our defense. The whole key is who is actually available as an upgrade, and what will it cost. In theory, if there was really a true X out there, I wouldnít be opposed to making the move. Itís gonna cost a lot of cap dollars, and draft picks too in a trade. Much more resource effective to work all offseason to get Bate able to beat man coverage from a good pressed corner. I think he can do it. And we have enough solid eligible receivers that we should be able to continue moving the ball against such a defense. More than anything last year against the Chiefs, we needed better play from our QB. Scheme wise it was there. We just threw too many balls high and wide. Having a Justin Jefferson or Davonte Adams out there would certainly be an upgrade, but they just donít seem in the realm of possibility at this point. Draft picks and cap dollars. Just get the timing worked out with Bateman and find ways to hurt defenses that way.





  8. #428

    Re: The Lamar disrespect is INSANE.

    Quote Originally Posted by jimjim5 View Post
    That other WR will be Bateman and he will pretty much show how good he is with healed feets.

    KC challenged both the personnel and coaches. Both failed.
    Feet is already plural.





  9. #429
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Balt-Wash corridor
    Posts
    25,401

    Re: The Lamar disrespect is INSANE.

    Quote Originally Posted by jonboy79 View Post
    They ran a lot of plays.
    That's indicative of a successful offense.





  10. #430

    Re: The Lamar disrespect is INSANE.

    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    That's indicative of a successful offense.
    Correct.
    An offense that featured Lamarís legs more than Roman EVER did was so successful that Lamar finished top 20% in pass attempts despite Louisville being top 50% in propensity to call a pass play.

    His pass attempt volume was a product of the success of the offense not some imaginary pass-heavy nature of this offense that did not actually exist.

    2019 Roman offense is really the best comp for Lamarís 3 years at Louisville. Roman added more RB Carries and ran a simpler passing scheme, where as Petrino relied significantly more on Lamarís legs.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk





  11. #431

    Re: The Lamar disrespect is INSANE.

    Quote Originally Posted by MeadowWoodRaven View Post
    I would describe the Ravens as having better then "some semblance" of a pass game.

    Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
    This past year, no question. The 4 years prior to 2023, not so much.

    The Ravens transitioned from an offense that ran to score points to one that threw to score points. In doing so, their QB had his overall best season as a passer. With no changes made to the run game, it stayed #1. In fact, they lost two RBs and stayed #1.

    Now they added Derrick Henry, so the run game should be fine, right? So why are people so defensive when others say they should try and improve the pass game?





  12. #432

    Re: The Lamar disrespect is INSANE.

    Quote Originally Posted by purple_city39 View Post
    This past year, no question. The 4 years prior to 2023, not so much.

    The Ravens transitioned from an offense that ran to score points to one that threw to score points. In doing so, their QB had his overall best season as a passer. With no changes made to the run game, it stayed #1. In fact, they lost two RBs and stayed #1.

    Now they added Derrick Henry, so the run game should be fine, right? So why are people so defensive when others say they should try and improve the pass game?
    Itís all comes down to the how. How do we improve the passing game? Some people here just love to argue each little thing. But I donít think anyone argues against any aspect of our team improving. Passing game specific, some posters see how much the passing game can improve just with Lamar. No additional dollars spent or players traded. Just Lamar getting better as a consistent thrower of the ball, all passes, but particularly the deep third. Now it would be wonderful to give Lamar a stud X receiver, someone to just trust throw with on third down and let the stud be a playmaker. But how rare are those players, and how do you actually aquire one outside of drafting him? They havenít even been available as free agents, and how much do we wanna trade away? Those are all real questions that make the WR market difficult. And man it would be great if we could just get some decent production from Bateman. Let him turn guys inside out with comeback timing routes on 3rd down, and let Lamar hit him with an accurate pass too. Maybe thereís still a low priced camp casualty receiver we can add, really to challenge Agolor or allow Bate to play in the slot. This offense could be very potent with a solid O line and a decent Bateman. Just gotta make it happen with him.





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