Good Article: What could the Baltimore Ravens offense look like in 2023? (Gordon McGuinness)

[edromeo]

Ravenswintitle referenced this article in another thread:
https://forum.russellstreetreport.co...19#post2501619

Great article, good read:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-what-co...k-like-in-2023

What could the Baltimore Ravens offense look like in 2023?

...Former offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who masterminded a 2019 offense that was almost unstoppable with Jackson at the helm, is gone, and the pair combined to see the then-second-year quarterback lead the league in touchdown passes while breaking the single-season rushing yardage record at the position.

He is replaced by Todd Monken, who spent time as the offensive coordinator with the Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers before winning back-to-back national championships with the Georgia Bulldogs during a three-year stint in Athens.

The Ravens return most of their offensive personnel but made big splashes at wide receiver, adding Odell Beckham Jr. in free agency and Zay Flowers in the first round of the NFL draft, drastically overhauling arguably the worst group in the NFL from last season...

[GreatWhiteNorthRaven]

One of the cool things about Todd Monken is there's not really any tendencies.

He's definitely going to lean toward zone running, but Georgia used a ton of duo too so it's going to be a mixed bag (every team runs a mixed run scheme nowadays anyway), but the shift to Under C zone is going to unlock the PA Boot for Lamar which is nice.

Recently, teams have charged the mesh point and it's made those pistol/shotgun PAs tough. Zone boots will put that backside defender in a bind and should give Lamar more time.

In terms of usage, it's going to be a lot of 12 and 11, which is good. I think you'll see some 21, but mroe with Ricard playing an F or H role rather than a true FB. He's really only used Alan Cross as a FB in his past and he was a versatile H-back/FB piece.
016:
inline - 54
backfield - 69
other - 15

2017:
inline - 81
backfield - 21
other - 15

I think you'll see Ricard's snaps drop SIGNIFICANTLY, but he'll still be used.

I'm expecting more 12 than 11 though tbh. I think they'll be able to work Zay in slowly and keep OBJ fresh, while capitalizing on the TE group.

[wickedsolo]

I think Isaiah Likely could really blossom in this offense.

[Ravenswintitle]

Like how he is touted for evolving to the player's strengths everywhere he's coached. rather than square peg round hole

[Captain Silver]

Like how he is touted for evolving to the player's strengths everywhere he's coached. rather than square peg round hole

Thank the gods... or the universe, or any extraterrestrial zombie lords....

[Rxdoxx]

I think Isaiah Likely could really blossom in this offense.

Agree, and I think we will be even more grateful the squeelers snagged Austin away before us

[JimZipCode]

I'm expecting more 12 than 11 though tbh. I think they'll be able to work Zay in slowly and keep OBJ fresh, while capitalizing on the TE group.

Funny, I expect the opposite.

What you said makes a ton of sense. Esp using Zay to manage Odell's snaps: it would be great to keep Odell on a snap count, after his rehab.

It just seems to me that the "investment" in the WRs will make it unrealistic not to play them. Two of them cost 1st-rd picks, the other has a $15M contract for this year. That's a lot of capital – any one of them is – to leave on the bench for much more than a quick blow or a short-yardage situation.

I also think each of the WRs is better than Likely (whom I like). Bigger-impact players; field-stretchers, and threats to take it to the house.

But – maybe what's more likely (heh) is that both of us are sort of wrong. Like what you point out here:

One of the cool things about Todd Monken is there's not really any tendencies.

It'll probably be matchup driven. If Monken thinks the opponent has a weakness in the secondary, he'll go more 1-1. If he thinks their coverage LBs are vulnerable, he'll go more 1-2. If he thinks their secondary is solid but they're weak up front, he'll run it down their throats. Whatever it takes.

Flexible. That's what I'm picturing, anyway.

[Goode05]

Funny, I expect the opposite.

What you said makes a ton of sense. Esp using Zay to manage Odell's snaps: it would be great to keep Odell on a snap count, after his rehab.

It just seems to me that the "investment" in the WRs will make it unrealistic not to play them. Two of them cost 1st-rd picks, the other has a $15M contract for this year. That's a lot of capital – any one of them is – to leave on the bench for much more than a quick blow or a short-yardage situation.

I also think each of the WRs is better than Likely (whom I like). Bigger-impact players; field-stretchers, and threats to take it to the house.

But – maybe what's more likely (heh) is that both of us are sort of wrong. Like what you point out here:

It'll probably be matchup driven. If Monken thinks the opponent has a weakness in the secondary, he'll go more 1-1. If he thinks their coverage LBs are vulnerable, he'll go more 1-2. If he thinks their secondary is solid but they're weak up front, he'll run it down their throats. Whatever it takes.

Flexible. That's what I'm picturing, anyway.

I still think the TE group is better then the wr group. Beckham isn’t Beckham from 4 years ago. Flowers (I don’t think he would have been a first rounder the previous couple of years) has never played a snap and Bateman hasn’t played a total of 16 games and seems to be heading more towards Perryman then a true 1.

[JimZipCode]

I still think the TE group is better then the wr group. Beckham isn’t Beckham from 4 years ago.

Ah, but is Beckham the Beckham from the 2021 playoff run with the Rams?
THAT player (not 2021 reg-season Beckham) is a WR1.

Flowers (I don’t think he would have been a first rounder the previous couple of years) has never played a snap

I think he's a better prospect than Marquise Brown (more complete player) and Marquise was a first-rounder, so I dunno.
Comparing with the last couple drafts might be stacking the deck. The 2021 & 22 drafts look historic for WRs. Ja'Marr, Waddle, Davonte Smith; Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Olave. It's possible for a WR not to be good enough to get picked in the first in 2021-22, but still be good enough to be a "first round WR" in a normal draft year.
That's what I see Flowers as. Not Chase; but a standard, normal first-rd WR.

and Bateman hasn’t played a total of 16 games and seems to be heading more towards Perryman then a true 1.

If we're going to compare, Bateman has played more games, and has a lot more catches & yards, than Isaiah Likely.
Using Perriman as a comp is absurd. Perriman tipped passes to defenders – routinely! When Bateman is targeted, good things generally happen.

* * *

I think the TE group has far less questions about health than the WR group has. Maybe that means the TE group has a higher floor.
I think the WR group has higher upside. Now, what percent of that they'll achieve given health questions, well I dunno.

The other thing is that a typical WR is more productive than a typical (non- Mark Andrews) TE. More yards, more TDs, higher yards-per-target on average. If the TE group is only a little better than the WR group, then the offense would be better overall by utilizing the WRs more.

Having three good TEs – I think Kolar is being overlooked, I think he'll be excellent – is very unwieldy. It's basically impossible to realize good value by using them all. I'm not bitching, it's a good problem to have. But it's a helluva lot easier to use three good WRs.

[Goode05]

Ah, but is Beckham the Beckham from the 2021 playoff run with the Rams?
THAT player (not 2021 reg-season Beckham) is a WR1.


I think he's a better prospect than Marquise Brown (more complete player) and Marquise was a first-rounder, so I dunno.
Comparing with the last couple drafts might be stacking the deck. The 2021 & 22 drafts look historic for WRs. Ja'Marr, Waddle, Davonte Smith; Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Olave. It's possible for a WR not to be good enough to get picked in the first in 2021-22, but still be good enough to be a "first round WR" in a normal draft year.
That's what I see Flowers as. Not Chase; but a standard, normal first-rd WR.


If we're going to compare, Bateman has played more games, and has a lot more catches & yards, than Isaiah Likely.
Using Perriman as a comp is absurd. Perriman tipped passes to defenders – routinely! When Bateman is targeted, good things generally happen.

* * *

I think the TE group has far less questions about health than the WR group has. Maybe that means the TE group has a higher floor.
I think the WR group has higher upside. Now, what percent of that they'll achieve given health questions, well I dunno.

The other thing is that a typical WR is more productive than a typical (non- Mark Andrews) TE. More yards, more TDs, higher yards-per-target on average. If the TE group is only a little better than the WR group, then the offense would be better overall by utilizing the WRs more.

Having three good TEs – I think Kolar is being overlooked, I think he'll be excellent – is very unwieldy. It's basically impossible to realize good value by using them all. I'm not bitching, it's a good problem to have. But it's a helluva lot easier to use three good WRs.

. I think he’s (Jackson) is better at throwing in between the numbers then outside the numbers and it’s also more helpful to have 6’6” receivers in the middle for him then sub 6 on the outside. Time will tell

[balbomb]

One of the cool things about Todd Monken is there's not really any tendencies.

He's definitely going to lean toward zone running, but Georgia used a ton of duo too so it's going to be a mixed bag (every team runs a mixed run scheme nowadays anyway), but the shift to Under C zone is going to unlock the PA Boot for Lamar which is nice.

Recently, teams have charged the mesh point and it's made those pistol/shotgun PAs tough. Zone boots will put that backside defender in a bind and should give Lamar more time.

In terms of usage, it's going to be a lot of 12 and 11, which is good. I think you'll see some 21, but mroe with Ricard playing an F or H role rather than a true FB. He's really only used Alan Cross as a FB in his past and he was a versatile H-back/FB piece.
016:
inline - 54
backfield - 69
other - 15

2017:
inline - 81
backfield - 21
other - 15

I think you'll see Ricard's snaps drop SIGNIFICANTLY, but he'll still be used.

I'm expecting more 12 than 11 though tbh. I think they'll be able to work Zay in slowly and keep OBJ fresh, while capitalizing on the TE group.

Good post GreatWhite. I think utilizing the boot is a potential game changer. I wanted Lamar out of town more than anyone, but this is one of the clear things if you are looking for massive upside that has somehow not even been touched in the first contract. Also in regards to Ricard, I do expect a dip in snaps for him, but at the same time he has already shown a remarkable ability to adapt to become a valued NFL player. I would not put it past him to force himself into more sets than he was planned for at the beginning of the season. Ultimately it seems like Monken fits the mold of adaptation, both to the defenses he is playing against and the strengths of his players, and that is all you can ask for in a coach.

[jonboy79]

So while i like the boot, it cuts the field in half, which was one of the biggest complaints of Roman.

So I’m a sense, it feels like we are praising Monken for doing what “we disliked” about Roman.


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