Advanced Stats and Lamar

**darb72** · 12-10-2022, 11:34 PM

Originally Posted by JonAB

Devin Duvernay is a bad WR because he can not win one on one and is a very poor route runner. Nothing to do with his numbers or Lamar or whatever else. He is not good. Calling him as good as MVS, a guy whose consistently put up very high yards per receptions every year in the league and is on pace for nearly a thousand yards as the number 3 option in an offense is fucking hair brained, plain and simple. But anyway I’m moving on. The no ball knowing and purple patrol shit here is crazy. Duvernay as good as MVS. Give me a fuckin break.

They're completely different types of receivers. Duv is a slot guy while DVS is a wide-out which shows in their catch/target stats. Duv is 35 of 45. MVS is 33 of 58.

**JonAB** · 12-10-2022, 11:53 PM

Originally Posted by WrongBaldy

Duv should be utilized as gadget player in the NFL.
Backfield, screens, tosses, sweeps. As a pure WR he is a decent 3. He’s good straight line runner and is good with ball in his hands

Ya. That seems his best use.

And to Darb, ya Im not the one saying they were. Others in the thread said MVS is Duv with worse hands. That said, Duv isn’t really a slot receiver either. Not shifty enough. He’s ran 362 routes out wide versus 182 in the slot per PFF. My ideal preference for Duv is he comes out as a Z on 3 WR sets and then is used in his gadget role with regularity and not forgotten weeks at a time. It should take two WR injuries for Duv to be forced into a starting role, not one.

**RavenXbio** · 12-11-2022, 12:35 AM

Originally Posted by JonAB

Ya. That seems his best use.

And to Darb, ya Im not the one saying they were. Others in the thread said MVS is Duv with worse hands. That said, Duv isn’t really a slot receiver either. Not shifty enough. He’s ran 362 routes out wide versus 182 in the slot per PFF. My ideal preference for Duv is he comes out as a Z on 3 WR sets and then is used in his gadget role with regularity and not forgotten weeks at a time. It should take two WR injuries for Duv to be forced into a starting role, not one.

Agreed but dub doesn’t really get to say where he runs routes lol

**darb72** · 12-11-2022, 12:44 AM

Originally Posted by JonAB

Ya. That seems his best use.

And to Darb, ya Im not the one saying they were. Others in the thread said MVS is Duv with worse hands. That said, Duv isn’t really a slot receiver either. Not shifty enough. He’s ran 362 routes out wide versus 182 in the slot per PFF. My ideal preference for Duv is he comes out as a Z on 3 WR sets and then is used in his gadget role with regularity and not forgotten weeks at a time. It should take two WR injuries for Duv to be forced into a starting role, not one.

Duv does have better hands than MVS. I think he only had one drop his last year in college. Keeping with the way-back machine here on his college tape, he didn't have great hips then either so I think most of us expected him to be a number 3 receiver with gadget use. In a more, let's say conventional, offense, he'd be a YAC beast. Here that's not likely to happen because our scheme sucks.

The fact Duv is starting is not good. I was really hoping Wallace would take that leap this year, but I had also forgotten who our OC is. So now the guy who should not be lined up outside regardless of scheme is out there at a 2-to-1 ratio.

**xiao_ke** · 12-11-2022, 01:33 AM

Originally Posted by WrongBaldy

Duv should be utilized as gadget player in the NFL.
Backfield, screens, tosses, sweeps. As a pure WR he is a decent 3. He’s good straight line runner and is good with ball in his hands

Exactly and it seemed like after the Bucs game the coaches might have understood how to best use Duvernay. They didn't and he's not getting enough touches. Duvernay should be getting 5 to 10 touches a game either in catches or running the ball.

**darb72** · 12-11-2022, 03:11 AM

Originally Posted by xiao_ke

Exactly and it seemed like after the Bucs game the coaches might have understood how to best use Duvernay. They didn't and he's not getting enough touches. Duvernay should be getting 5 to 10 touches a game either in catches or running the ball.

I was thinking the exact same thing. Given the quality of Duv's touches, this would provide fifty to a hundred yards of offense a game from a third/fourth option. We shouldn't discount that kind of weapon. And that the touches come in a variety of ways would keep the defense on their toes.

**Kyle Cactus** · 12-11-2022, 07:36 PM

Originally Posted by ClericBlackDave

you're still missing it. He, or some intern, has to JUDGE whether a block is made or not. That process isn't transparent and is opinion laden. Even if he laid how how he does is very clearly, without knowing they play, you dont know a Player's RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE PLAY. Its guess work. So saying a guy "missed a block" is still very subjective without knowing if his responsibility was to make the block or go elsewhere. Or if it was to quickly make a block before moving to the 2nd level.

No intern. If you paid any attention to Ken you would know that. I'm not saying you need to pay attentionto him, but if you don't, then your critiquing something you have basically no knowledge of.

I agree that there is subjectivity, but that's not the same as lacking transparency. The process is presented transparently. Anyone consuming his analysis who knows anything about football will know that there is still some subjectivity. I've heard Ken point out the subjectivity himself. So I don't see where transparency is an issue.

I think we all know that there's no perfect football analysis. But there's clear value added if someone understands the game, puts many hours of study in, and has a well thought out system.

**Kyle Cactus** · 12-11-2022, 08:05 PM

Originally Posted by Kyle Cactus

No intern. If you paid any attention to Ken you would know that. I'm not saying you need to pay attentionto him, but if you don't, then your critiquing something you have basically no knowledge of.

I agree that there is subjectivity, but that's not the same as lacking transparency. The process is presented transparently. Anyone consuming his analysis who knows anything about football will know that there is still some subjectivity. I've heard Ken point out the subjectivity himself. So I don't see where transparency is an issue.

I think we all know that there's no perfect football analysis. But there's clear value added if someone understands the game, puts many hours of study in, and has a well thought out system.

I also think it's a mistake to get too hung up on subjectivity. Any stat in football is subjective at some level, because events on the field are affected by the subjective judgements of referees. So the direct stats like catches, completion percentage, or, to a lesser degree, sacks, are only less subjective than the analysis you're critiquing.

Those less subjective stats have a massive flaw though: they completely lack context. I'd rather see an analysis that's more subjective but at least attempts to account for some of the context if game state, quality of opponent, quality of team mates, etc...

I agree with you (CBD) that if something is largely proprietary you can't judge if it has any worth. It could be complete nonsense. But if someone has detailed their method then I can understand it's strengths and weaknesses and can still learn something from it.