Ravens tiebreak scenarios

[VermontRaven]

OK, it is now clear that the Ravens are going to be in a dogfight for division with Bengals, and very well could fall out of division lead with the way both teams are playing. So, I decided to take an initial look at where the Ravens stand with tiebreak scenarios with Bengals, then with other AFC Wildcard contenders.

RAVENS TIEBREAK LOOKOUT
Division Tiebreak:
Bengals
–1st tiebreak h2h. Ravens win if they beat Cincy week 18.
-2nd tiebreak is division record. Ravens currently 2-0, Bengals 1-3. Ravens clinch division tiebreak if they go 2-2 in remaining division games or if they go 1-3 and Bengals lose to Browns
-3rd tiebreak is record in “common games” Easiest way to look at this is “uncommon” games outside division. Worst record in uncommon games=best record in common games, Ravens are 1-2 uncommon games (W vs. Denver, Ls vs NYG and Jax), Bengals are 1-2 (Ws vs Tenn, KC, L vs. Dallas)
SO, RAVENS will win a tiebreak with Bengals if they win 1 of the remaining 4 division games
RAVENS ARE IN GREAT SHAPE FOR TIEBREAK SCENARIOS IF THEY END UP TIED WITH BENGALS


WILDCARD TIEBREAKS
Dolphins
–1st tiebreak is h2. Ravens lose 2-way tiebreak.
--2nd tiebreak is conference record. More NFC losses=less AFC losses Ravens 1 NFC loss (NYG) with Atl left to play Miami have 2 NFC losses (Minn, SF) with GB left to play. Miami wins tiebreak unless Ravens lose to ATL and Miami beats GB


Jets
—1st tiebreak is h2h. Ravens win tiebreak if 2-way tie (or 3-way tie with Ravens, Jets, Pats)

Patriots
—1st tiebreak is h2h. Ravens win tiebreak if 2-way tie (or 3-way tie with Ravens, Jets, Pats)

Chargers
–1st tiebreak h2h. Not applicable
--2nd tiebreak is conference record. More NFC losses=less AFC losses
Ravens 1 NFC loss (NYG) with Atl left to play LAC have 2 NFC losses (Seat, SF) with LAR left to play. LAC wins tiebreak unless Ravens lose to ATL and LAC beats LAR


[B]3+way tiebreaks
[/B]Ravens, Jets, Patriots
—Ravens win with h2h sweep.
Any other 3-way tiebreak involving Patriots
–Patriots win (have 3 current NFC losses)
Chargers also likely ahead of Ravens in 3-way tiebreak based on conference record. Jets have 1 NFC loss currently with games left vs. Detroit, Seattle.

Ravens win 2 or 3 way tiebreak among Ravens, Jets, Patriots.

Ravens likely to lose 2 way tiebreak vs. Dolphins, Chargers.

Ravens likely to lose any 3 way tiebreak other than with Jets, Patriots




Browns/Steelers division tiebreak if needed (unlikely—both these teams would probably have to win out to be in tiebreak with Ravens that has playoff implications)
Browns
–1st tiebreak h2h. Ravens win if they beat Cleveland Sat, Dec. 17
-2nd tiebreak is division record. Ravens 2-0 (with PittX2, at Clev, at Cincy left) Browns 2-1 (with at Cincy, Balt, and Pitt left) Since Browns probably have to win out for this scenario to play out, Browns would probably win the tiebreak with 5-1 division record. Ravens would have to lose at least 3 games and they only have 1 non-division opponent left (Atl)
-3rd tiebreak is record in “common games” Easiest way to look at this is “uncommon” games outside division. Worst record in uncommon games=best record in common games, Ravens are 1-2 uncommon games (W vs. Denver, Ls vs NYG and Jax), Browns are 1-1 (W vs. Hous, L vs. LAC, Wash left to play)
-4th tiebreak is conference record. Ravens have 1 NFC loss w/Atl left. Browns have 1 NFC loss with NO and Wash left to play

Steelers
-1st tiebreak h2h. They haven’t played yet. Play twice (Sunday and Week 17) Since Steelers probably have to win out for this scenario to play out, Pitt would probably win tiebreak with sweep of h2h.

[Jsmoove]

https://youtu.be/U7fjDS0jKiE

[NOLARavenFAN]

It's going to take a miracle for this to be a January team..... but I want to see what Ojabo and Williams can bring to the defense, and when Stanley can come back

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[blah3]

Ravens are currently 5-3 in conference. Chargers are 4-4.
Ravens look good in most tiebreaker scenarios.