Looking Around at Prospect Rankings and Mock Drafts

[Kyle Cactus]

I looked at 6 different prospect rankings and 10 different mock drafts this week to get a sense of who the consensus top players are and which of them have a chance to be there at 14.

First I calculated an average ranking from the 6 prospect rankings:

1	Kayvon Thibodeaux	Edge	2.0	
2	Adian Hutchinson	Edge	2.2	
3	Kyle Hamilton		S	2.3
4	Derek Stingley		CB	4.7
5	Evan Neal		OT	5.5
6	George Karlaftis	Edge	7.5	
7	Tyler Linderbaum	C	9.3	
8	Ikem Ekwonu		OT	11.0
9	Charles Cross		OT	13.3
10	Devin Loyd		LB	15.3
11	Ahmad Gardner		CB	15.3
12	Garrett Wilson		WR	15.5
13	David Ojabo		Edge	15.7
14	Jameson Williams	WR	16.2	
15	DeMarvin Leal		IDL	16.5
16	Kenny Pickett		QB	17.3
17	Andrew Booth		CB	18.2
18	Nakobe Dean		LB	18.2
19	Matt Corral		QB	18.8
20	Kenyon Green		T/G	19.0
21	Chris Olave		WR	19.3

The full list is longer, but you get he idea. To save time on the next step I only looked at he top 15 players and dropped Wilson and Williams since I don't think the Ravens will go WR. I then looked at the 10 mocks to determine what % of the time each player was available at 14.

Kayvon Thibodeaux	Edge	2.0	0%	
Adian Hutchinson	Edge	2.2	0%	
Kyle Hamilton		S	2.3	0%
Derek Stingley		CB	4.7	0%
Evan Neal		OT	5.5	0%
George Karlaftis	Edge	7.5	10%	
Tyler Linderbaum	C	9.3	70%	
Ikem Ekwonu		OT	11.0	10%
Charles Cross		OT	13.3	60%
Devin Loyd		LB	15.3	80%
Ahmad Gardner		CB	15.3	80%
David Ojabo		Edge	15.7	70%
DeMarvin Leal		IDL	16.5	80%

Disclaimers
- A lot will change between now and draft day
- I have no idea how closely the Ravens draft board resembles the online media consensus
- I have no idea how closely the actual draft will track with mock drafts
- The Ravens could trade up or back

So you should take this with a grain of salt. But I thought it was a fun/nerdy way to wrap my ahead around what to expect for the Ravens at 14. Maybe I'll do a more comprehensive version of this closer to the draft.

Observations
The top 5 players, unsurprisingly, never drop to 14.

Karlaftis and Ekwonu are highly regarded prospects that currently feel like a long shot to be there at 14, but at least there's a chance. All 6 sites ranked Karlaftis in their top 10 players, and Edge is a high value position. Ekwonu wasn't universally top 10, but he was top 10 in 4 of 6 of the rankings I looked at. Plus tackle is another high value position.

Linderbaum was also highly regarded in prospect rankings, but center is not as highly valued, so he was usually available at 14.

Cross and Gardner are players at valuable positions that were usually available at 14. Maybe these are likely options for the Ravens?

Ojabo was the top edge player that was usually available for the Ravens.

Loyd and Leal seem like they might not be great value at 14 simply because of positional value. We also recently spent a 1st and a 3rd at LB, so Loyd seems particularly unlikely.

I'm sure a bunch of posters have different preferences. For instance, maybe some like Booth over Gardner at CB. Suffice it to say that players any further down the list were typically available at 14.

Finally, I think the Ravens might be less likely to trade their top pick this year. It's very expensive to move up in this part of the draft. Moving back might also be less appealing since they already have so many picks. But we'll see.

[Kyle Cactus]

Quick methodology note:
To save time I just grabbed the top 25 players from each prospect ranking. If a player was outside the top 25 I just used a value of 30 in the average. The full list of players after 6 top-25 players was 39, but I don't know if there's a massive difference in value from 26 to 39, so picking a number closer to 25 than 39 seemed fair.

[Mmcclend]

I’m really hoping some of the QBs shoot up the draft boards the closer we get to the draft. If that happens, we will have a chance at a top 8-10 talent which would be dope. This is good work though.

[Mmcclend]

I’m 100% on the David Ojabo train. Fingers crossed he will be there. I’m sure Mike Macdonald is giving us some insight on him.

[Kyle Cactus]

I’m really hoping some of the QBs shoot up the draft boards the closer we get to the draft. If that happens, we will have a chance at a top 8-10 talent which would be dope. This is good work though.

Thanks.

I'm definitely hoping the same with QBs. I feel like some mock drafts are conservative with trades, and trades definitely help propel some of the crazy runs on QB early on. So if anything using mock drafts to generate those %'s would underestimate the chance of non-QB players being at 14? That's probably too far in the weeds though. This is a very coarse exercise.

[RevBarnes]

I’m 100% on the David Ojabo train. Fingers crossed he will be there. I’m sure Mike Macdonald is giving us some insight on him.

But how is he in coverage?

[Kyle Cactus]

But how is he in coverage?

[Culex]

Andrew Booth that low good grief. This looks like a good time for a Culex hiatus before this offseason gets any more absurd

[Yards]

I’m really hoping some of the QBs shoot up the draft boards the closer we get to the draft. If that happens, we will have a chance at a top 8-10 talent which would be dope. This is good work though.

This usually does happen! Let's hope the QB hungry teams get itchy

[Mmcclend]

This usually does happen! Let's hope the QB hungry teams get itchy

Fingers crossed. We should be able to snag a superstar if things fall our way.

[omar804]

30.Ahmad Gardner CB Cincinnati

45.Sean Rhyan OT UCLA

62. Brandon Smith LB Penn State

76.Daniel Faalele OT Minnesota

94.Coby Bryant CB Cincinnati

116.Sam LaPorta TE Iowa

121.John Ridgeway DT Arkansas

129.Yusuf Corker S Kentucky

137.Tyler Goodson RB Iowa

138. Siaki Ika DT Baylor

153.Kenderick Duncan Jr. S Louisville

170.Gerard Wheeler OC Tulsa