HOT / COLD Maps 2021 Season Thread

**WNCRavensFan** · 10-10-2021, 05:39 AM

Hello - I'm going to attempt to make one of these each week moving forward after the final injury report comes out for that week.

I'll be listing my estimated top 13 players by snap count on each side of the ball, based on who is available, for the Ravens opponent. The image file will be somewhat spacially considered - weak side vs strong side, front vs back. Each player will have a color representing how well they're playing leading up to that week, with emphasis placed on the past 4-5 games.

Strong Red - Hot
Dark Red - Warm
Black - Average
Dark Blue - Cool
Strong Blue - Cold

If I have extra time I will make notes on how the offense and defense matches up against the Ravens for that week.

**WNCRavensFan** · 10-10-2021, 05:41 AM

HOT/COLD MAP
Week 5 vs IND

Welp... I can link the URL but having trouble embedding. Any technical help is welcome.

NOTES - IND Offense vs BAL Defense

The Colts have a lot of problems on offense due to injuries and general lack of depth. They have 7 total offensive touchdowns through 4 games played. That's not terrible, but it's not good either.

This starts with Carson Wentz at QB, who played admirably at Miami in spite of two bum ankles and no offensive line help. Through four games he's only thrown 1 INT and lost 1 fumble. If he can't finish a game though, the team is sunk. Jacob Eason or the recently signed Brett Hundley would take over. There are better backups around the NFL.

The strength of Indy's offense is the reliance on stud RB Jonathan Taylor to carry them, pun intended. Between him, Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack (who they are still giving carries to despite his trade request) their RB room is pretty strong. Taylor put up his first 100 yard game against the Dolphins. The Ravens need to be able to corral him - they have to tackle better. They can probably let him get his grind-out yards and win if they limit the chunk plays.

The WRs corp is one of the worst in the NFL, though like the other units they are affected by the OL. Wentz will have a hard time pushing the ball downfield. Michael Pittman is the only WR consistently making plays. Zach Pascal is putting up numbers by default. And Marcus Brady has to keep RB/TEs in for protection so they can't go 4+ wide very often. So, once again, the Ravens need to worry about the TE pair of Moe Allie-Cox and Jack Doyle, as well as the RBs in the passing game.

It's the play of the offensive line that is really hurting the team. Thanks to the injuries of Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith, and the struggles of a hobbled Eric Fisher, there are zero OL playing well right now. 0/5. Even Ryan Kelly is playing beneath his standards. This is a golden opportunity for the front seven (and the occasional blitzing DB) to feast on pressure. It's mainly because of this unit likely being confused by Wink Martindale's scheme that I believe the Colts will have a hard time reaching 20 points in this game.

NOTES - IND Defense vs BAL Offense

Again, injuries and lack of depth are hurting the Colts, the secondary in particular. They have given up 11 TD through the air, 3rd worst in the NFL. The map pretty much spells it out - they have good players up front, and are really struggling in back.

The base 4-3 defense of DC Matt Eberflus starts and ends with DeForest Buckner. He's not quite being his dominant self right now but he could take over any game against a weak opponent. Thankfully the Ravens interior OL is starting to gel, and their best lineman to date is C Bradley Bozeman. Buckner will require attention. NT Grover Stewart has also played well; overall the Colts run defense has been good.

The DE room is missing Kwity Paye but that's okay for now. Tyquan Lewis has been earning more snaps and he and Al-Quadin Muhammad have tied for the most the past two games with 96. Kemoko Turay put in his best performance against Miami subbing for Paye. The defense has a rotation of EDGE players and use them often, including reserves Ben Banogu and Isaac Rochell... but none of them really demand a double team.

Bobby Okereke and Darious Leonard dominate defensive snaps with 100% each - like most teams the Colts play more nickel than base. And there's no real reason to take them off the field either. Leonard, starting his career on a HOF pace, obviously needs to be paid attention to. Greg Roman I am sure is telling Lamar & Friends to find him on every pre-snap read. If the Ravens can take Buckner and Leonard out of most of the game like they did with Von Miller, there's not much else they have to worry about.

The secondary, like the OL on offense, is the weak link. The losses of CB Rock Ya-Sin and probably S Khari Willis are huge here, because the team carries only 10 DB to begin with. All of their other CB are being abused. This is another game where the Ravens WR corp can make some noise. Julian Blackmon is their most talented DB but he's suffering too. And then there's our old buddy Andrew Sendejo who is filling in for Willis. Hopefully Lamar will continue to spread the ball around.

This is a winning formula proven many times - torch the Colts through the air, build a lead, then run the ball to gas them out while the defense forces sacks and INTs on the other side trying to play catch up. That should be the outcome here. But will it?

**organizedchaos21** · 10-10-2021, 08:48 AM

Originally Posted by WNCRavensFan

HOT/COLD MAP
Week 5 vs IND
Welp... I can link the URL but having trouble embedding. Any technical help is welcome.
[B]

It's not clear to me that you can embed an image from Google Drive here. My suggestion would be to download the image and then upload it to a site like imgbb.com, like so:

This would also resolve another potential issue that I addressed in your DMs.

**blueridgemtnman** · 10-10-2021, 09:44 AM

Originally Posted by WNCRavensFan

Hello - I'm going to attempt to make one of these each week moving forward after the final injury report comes out for that week.

I'll be listing my estimated top 13 players by snap count on each side of the ball, based on who is available, for the Ravens opponent. The image file will be somewhat spacially considered - weak side vs strong side, front vs back. Each player will have a color representing how well they're playing leading up to that week, with emphasis placed on the past 4-5 games.

Strong Red - Hot
Dark Red - Warm
Black - Average
Dark Blue - Cool
Strong Blue - Cold

If I have extra time I will make notes on how the offense and defense matches up against the Ravens for that week.

Thanks for putting these together. Much appreciated.

**sailorsam** · 10-10-2021, 11:26 AM

thanks for info WNC
looks like winning in the NFL is about 1) playmakers, and 2) whoever has the most healthy roster

**mmi16** · 10-10-2021, 10:41 PM

Originally Posted by sailorsam

thanks for info WNC
looks like winning in the NFL is about 1) playmakers, and 2) whoever has the most healthy roster

As it has always been!

**WNCRavensFan** · 10-16-2021, 10:24 AM

HOT/COLD MAP
Week 6 vs LAC

Notes - LAC Offense vs BAL Defense

The Ravens defense that has frankly been lackluster so far this season gets yet another high powered offense in the Chargers and another QB with Superbowl and MVP aspirations in Justin Herbert. Herbert is the epitome of the classic NFL QB - tall, big arm, accurate, takes charge of the offense - and he also has enough athleticism to keep up with today's game. It's not a question of stopping him so much as slowing him down enough to win the contest.

That said, Herbert doesn't approach these heights without a good supporting cast. The team doesn't run the ball terribly much but they do okay and keep defenses like the Ravens honest. Austin Ekeler, their primary RB, is a weapon in the passing game however. He's caught 23 of 25 targets, that's 92% of his passes, and already has 3 receiving TD. He could have a huge day carving up the weak spot for the Ravens - we're going to see more bad coverage and missed tackles. Joshua Kelley is back from injury and is the primary backup.

I'm sure you've heard this before - the Chargers primarily run 11 and 12 personnel and though there is a FB on the roster they don't use him (27 snaps in 5 games). Almost every NFL team does it these days. LA has a superlative pair of WR in Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, with Williams as the X and Allen as the Big Slot. Williams leads the NFL with 6 receiving TD. He is listed as questionable and has not practiced at all this week, so it's extremely important to keep your eye on this. If he doesn't go Sunday, Jalen Guyton will get more targets and rookie Josh Palmer will play more snaps.

What we do know is that the starting right side of the OL is not playing. Michael Schofield, yes that Michael Schofield (sorry for the spelling error) will replace Oday Aboushi at RG for the rest of the season (torn ACL), while Storm Norton has been filling in for the injured Bryan Bulaga. Wink will need to take advantage of this, because the left side may feature three Pro Bowlers in prized free agent Corey Linsley, T-G convert Matt Fieler and dominant rookie Rashawn Slater. If Odafe Oweh is put on Slater it will be quite the matchup of powerhouse freshmen.

30+ points on the Ravens (again) is a real possibility here. Baltimore is going to give up yards, it's just going to happen. They need to keep the Chargers out of the end zone and perhaps get a couple fortuitous turnovers.

Notes - LAC Defense vs BAL Offense

DC Renaldo Hill runs a base 3-4 that morphs into nickel and dime defenses as usual. The key here is the news LB Drue Tranquill is not playing. This means the front seven is all about Joey Bosa. Nobody else is approaching his level of play and whoever draws him, whether Villanueva, Mekari or dare I say Andre Smith, will need help. Not only does Bosa have to carry the pass rush but he also apparently has to carry the run defense.

LA is 32nd in the NFL in rushing yards given up (788), and 32nd in rushing yards per attempt (5.6). Their D-Line of Linval Joseph, Christian Covington and Jerry Tillery aren't getting the job done. Analytics people are probably happy that this 4-1 team reinforces their idea that run defense doesn't matter. So the interior OL of Ben Powers, Bradley Bozeman and Kevin Zeitler need to win their matchups Sunday.

Remember Kenneth Murray is already not playing, so losing Tranquill leaves a vacuum in the middle of the field with a rookie sixth round pick starting in his place. So you know what that means: another big day for Mark Andrews. It should and better happen. Unless the Chargers double/triple team him, but that will leave the WRs wide open.

Derwin James headlines the secondary but has given up some plays this season. Another key player listed as questionable in this game is his S partner Nasir Adderley, who is playing well and has at least some practice in this week. Those two are first and second on the team in tackles and have to do a lot of cleanup work for the front seven. If Adderley doesn't play, dime back Alohi Gilman will take his place. Slot corner Tevaughn Campbell has a very high grade but a small sample size.

The more I look at this, the more I see that without Bosa, Lamar and Friends would have their way with this defense. So you'd like to think they can scheme Bosa out of the game. But we know that sometimes it just doesn't matter.

I see another high scoring, competitive game. Take your antacids.

**Desert Raven** · 10-16-2021, 10:30 AM

Yikes that’s a lot of red. Hopefully Oweh can blow up that weak right side. Someone might have to help on Bosa.

**WNCRavensFan** · 10-17-2021, 01:23 PM

bump for game day

**WNCRavensFan** · 10-23-2021, 08:06 AM

HOT/COLD MAP
Week 7 vs CIN

The strong red/ strong blue doesn't seem to be contrasting very well so I'll work on that. But anyway, here it is.

Notes - CIN Offense vs BAL Defense

The Bengals under OC Brian Callahan run what most teams run these days, and that is a lot of 11 and 12 personnel looks. These two groupings account for 89% of their offensive snaps. That is above the NFL average of 81%.

QB Joe Burrow appears to have gotten over his pre season concerns and is currently one of the better performing QBs in the NFL, throwing 14 passing TD and sitting at 7th in passer rating. Most impressively, he is 3rd in the league in YPA (Yds/Pass Att) with a robust 8.9, behind only Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford and slightly ahead of Lamar Jackson. He's not known for being a deep thrower, but he's taking advantage of the weapons he has and pushing the ball down field. If the Ravens pass D can take care of Justin Herbert, they can take care of Joe Burrow... but other factors in the match up may mean Cincy will be a tougher task for Wink.

The run game for example is much better than last week's. Joe Mixon may be the best RB in the league that people don't talk about all that much. He has the second most rushing attempts in the league (behind Derrick Henry by a mile) and has a respectable 2.1 YAC for someone used that much, especially considering he is 28th in YBC with 2.2. He has more broken tackles per rush attempt than Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb and a host of other top flight RBs. So once again, stopping the Cincy offense starts with containing Mixon. Samaje Perine is the primary backup but likely won't see all that much action unless Mixon is banged up.

The rest of the offense is all geared towards giving Burrow options in the passing game. The Bengals may have the 2nd best WR corps in the league behind Tampa Bay. Top draft pick Ja'Marr Chase is simply a stud. He may even give Marlon Humphrey trouble. If they do stick Humphrey on Chase all game it will be one heck of a match up to follow, and probably very physical. Tee Higgins on the other side has been banged up a bit but is one of the better #2 WR in the league, and Tyler Boyd is a superb slot WR that has killed the Ravens before (who can forget...). Even Auden Tate is a guy a lot of other teams would love to have and on the rare occasion the Bengals have gone 4-wide they've been very successful.

The TE room is nothing special but #1 TE CJ Uzomah does what's asked of him. Certainly with the soft middle of Baltimore's D he can do some damage. No surprise - Chuck Clark and DeShon Elliott are big factors for the Ravens in all phases of defense.

The OL continues to be the weak spot of this unit. LT Jonah Williams has been healthy to date, and that is enormous for the Bengals. Next to him at LG, veteran Quinton Spain has been a pleasant surprise. And at RT, Riley Reiff has admirably held the line. So it is an improved squad, but rookie RG Jackson Carman and C Trey Hopkins are among the worst rated players at their position.

All this means that this match up highly depends on the Ravens interior DL winning or losing their match against the Bengals interior OL. Calais Campbell needs to show up again, and I wouldn't mind Justin Madubuike having a good game. The rest will come down to whether the pass defense can confuse Joe Burrow, who isn't immune to throwing INT. The depth of the Ravens D, and in particular the secondary, will be tested.

Notes - CIN Defense vs BAL Offense

DC Lou Anarumo employs a 4-2 nickel with a heavy rotation of defensive linemen. They are 5th in the league in points allowed and 8th in yards. This is finally an improved unit after toiling for so many years.

This improvement starts up front. FA pickup D.J. Reader missed most of last season due to injury - he is back and healthy and is one of the top run defenders in the league. Top reserve B.J. Hill is also performing at a top level. These two make it extremely hard for teams to run inside. Another big acquisition, Trey Hendrickson, sets the edge along with Sam Hubbard. The result is, Cincy's defense is top ten in all Rushing D categories. If Bradley Bozeman can't play, that will just add to the issue.

There isn't much depth on the edge behind Hendrickson and Hubbard. Rookie Cameron Sample sees some time but more as a pass-down DT. The emphasis on D appears to be focused on stopping the run and covering well. Hendrickson has almost half the team's sacks.

Logan Wilson is one of the few young LBs that seems to actually be playing well in all phases. Germaine Pratt next to him has rounded into a pretty good MIKE. Akeem Davis-Gaither sometimes rotates in, but overall the team uses fewer than 2 ILB per play and Wilson leads the unit and the team with 4 INT. If Lamar makes the same mistake he did last week, it'll be Wilson with the pick.

In the secondary, CB Chidobe Awuzie is currently playing at an All-Pro level. Dallas made a big mistake giving him up - they could've had both him and Trevon Diggs - but oh well, Bengals gain. If Awuzie is put on Hollywood Brown it'll be much like Chase/Humphrey - a must see match up. FS Jessie Bates continues to be a top defensive back and SS Von Bell is putting in one of this best seasons. Between Wilson, Bates and Bell, this may spell struggles for the Lamar-to-Andrews connection. Mike Hilton, formerly of the Steelers, is doing an admirable job as the Nickel and the return of Ricardo Allen may mean we even see some dime.

If your D is only as strong as your weakest link, it's hard to find one on the Bengals but it would have to be CB2 Eli Apple, who has never played up to his first round billing. Whether Greg Roman puts Hollywood on him, or Bateman, this is the match up the Ravens offense must exploit. Lamar will probably have some time to do so, unless Reader, Hill and Larry Ogunjobi push through the middle of the OL.

Last week surprisingly turned out to be no-contest. I don't see that happening again. The Bengals appear to match up with the Ravens pretty well - and it makes sense because they're trying to build a team that can beat their division opponents. We'll just have to see!

**WNCRavensFan** · 11-07-2021, 02:05 PM

HOT/COLD MAP
Week 9 vs MIN

Sorry, no time for analysis this week. Bradbury, Hunter and Pierce not playing for the Vikings will play into things.

**WNCRavensFan** · 11-10-2021, 10:41 PM

HOT/COLD MAP
Week 10 @ MIA

Notes - MIA Offense vs BAL Defense

This is what a bad team looks like, and we start with having two offensive coordinators (George Godsey, Eric Studesville). Yeah.....

I don't know if there's a QB in the league being treated worse right now than Tua Tagovailoa. He hasn't been deplorable, which is admirable considering the situation he's thrust into. He is listed as questionable, so Jacoby Brissett might play, but it's basically the same QB except Brissett is taller.

Myles Gaskin is the workhorse RB - his workload was increased in the win over Houston. He's nothing special, but he does have 3 TD receiving. Salvon Ahmed is the backup, and the team does not employ a FB. As you may expect from this, the team is dead last in the NFL in rushing yards, 31st in rushing attempts and 30th in yards per attempt. If the Ravens give up over 100 yards tomorrow night it's on them.

The team I suppose was going to employ a lot of 4 WR sets but the WR room is in shambles. DeVante Parker is on IR again, Will Fuller has gone full flake, Jakeem Grant was traded and Preston Williams was inactive last week. So you've got Jaylen Waddle... and Jaylen Waddle. Mack Hollins will get snaps and beyond that it's anyone's guess between Albert Wilson, Isaiah Ford and maybe even practice squad pickup Travis Fulgham.

All this necessitates a lot of TE on the field. Miami's top offensive weapon is currently TE Mike Gesicki who leads the team in yards - he doesn't block so he's basically a large WR with an impressive 8.4 YPT. Durham Smythe and Adam Shaheen also see their fair share of snaps and more often than not there are 2+ TE on the field.

One common thread among the NFL dregs is a deplorable offensive line, and the Dolphins are no exception. Rookie LT Liam Eichenberg is struggling. Former LT Austin Jackson was moved to guard where he's improved a bit. C Greg Mancz won't play and is replaced by FA pickup Austin Reiter. Robert Hunt is a guy that I thought would be better - draft whiff on my part. And the RT is Jesse Davis. Altogether it's hard for anything to get going on offense.

I know this is a road game, but if Don Martindale can't limit this offense to under 24 points, the Ravens defense is just flat out bad.

Notes - MIA Defense vs BAL Offense

Not much better so far this season, though you wonder how much is their fault. DC Josh Boyer had a good season in 2020 running a Ravens-esque hybrid defense with lots of nickel and dime. This season a good chunk of it has regressed.

The DL is the bright spot for the team. Emmanuel Ogbah is aging well and Christian Wilkins has surprisingly good grades. Adam Butler rotates at NT with Raekwon Davis. This line leads a run defense limiting teams to 4.3 YPC (14th best) and Ogbah leads the team with 5 sacks and 15 QB hits.

LB Jerome Baker was a full participant in practice today and leads an otherwise pretty bad LB unit. Elandon Roberts is not having a good year and can be picked on. Jaelen Phillips is going through rookie pains but getting his reps and still has talent. The Ravens have an opportunity to exploit the Dolphins on the edge, but with who? Lamar I guess. He'll probably lead the team in rushing again.

CB Xavien Howard is another player having a down season so far. Perhaps that's why the Dolphins were in trade talks with the Ravens. Byron Jones is having a down year as well. With the team spending a full quarter of their snaps in dime, they're not defending the pass well at all. Second round pick Jevon Holland is playing 100% of their snaps now and does look like the future at FS for them.

The Dolphins blitz a lot and you wonder if it's costing Howard and Jones. They are 30th in passing yards given and have surrendered 17 passing TD. They're 22nd in YPA. So the story of Lamar & friends vs this defense is whether they handle the blitz. Lamar has been much worse this season vs the blitz than before, but, before, he was one of the best in the league vs the blitz. So what's it going to be? I would like to see plenty of blitz-beaters to Hollywood Brown and Rashod Bateman. Throw in Duvernay and Proche and of course Mark Andrews. Lamar can go for 300+ in this game with multiple TD especially if Howard and Jones don't show up.

I'm going to guess the Ravens hang 30 or more on the Dolphins and win this game by two scores.