How many passes in 2021?

[Jfoh]

We will still be a run first team this year. I do think we will be going much faster in getting plays off with time still left on the play clock. So far LJ has been told to run the play clock to almost zero on every snap. I expect him to snap the ball with ten or more seconds left this year. That should give him 6-8 more plays a game which can be passing plays without reducing the number of running plays. He is an excellent up tempo qb and a faster game tempo works very well for him. Think about two td drives against Cleveland in under two minutes at the end of a half or several drives to get into FG range with very little time on the clock, like the "cramp" game against the Browns.

As to people who think we are going to be a pass happy team, it is not going to happen. LJ had 376 attempts last year in 15 games. Ravens as a team had 406 attempts. Big Ben had 608, Joe Burrows had 404 in ten games, Baker had 486. LJ had 401 in 15 games in 2019 so it was down year for him in 2020. I considered the target goal as 450 pass attempts for this year which will be 27-28 a game. 30 a game would be 510. So he goes from 22 to 27-28 passes a game. Last year pass total attempts were Hollywood 100, Andrews 88, Snead 48, Boykin 33, Duvernay 26, Boyle 17 in 9 games, Edwards, Hill, Dobbins and Ingram 50, Richards 12 Porche 3, others 14. That was 406 total but LJ missed one game and several quarters in blowouts. His total attempts were 376. Snead numbers will go to Bateman. That 44 more passes to go from 406 to 450 is not that many extra passes and when you spread them across what each should get this year. I see Hollywood 100, Andrews 80, Bateman 60, Watkins 40, Duvernay 40, Boykin 40, Boyle 35, RB 45, then Porche, Wallace or others might split 5-10 between them. 450 total. If one goes up ten somebody else will go down. 406 goes to 450 or about 44 more passes, less than 5 more a game more. Easy way to get 5 more passes a game is to just go faster. You can still call the same number of running plays and again LJ is a very good up tempo QB.

But will that be enough passes? That, 450, would have been good enough for 30-th last year in passing attempts in a 16 game season. and this year is a 17 game season. So add another 50 to get us up to 500, 28-29/ game. The real goal will be to up the average per pass attempt from 7.2 in 2020 to 7.6 2019 average with a final goal of 8.0 yards per pass attempt on more passes without reducing the running game. Point is we might be looking at about 44 more passes just to get to 450 but might need to go up to 94 to get up to 500 total attempts. Some fans seem to think we will throw 200-250 more passes but I just do not see than happening this year.

Be fun to start a contest to see who gets the right number of attempts. My guess is 450 for 3600 yards or 8.0 per attempt. What is your guess?

[Ortizer]

We will still be a run first team this year. I do think we will be going much faster in getting plays off with time still left on the play clock. So far LJ has been told to run the play clock to almost zero on every snap. I expect him to snap the ball with ten or more seconds left this year. That should give him 6-8 more plays a game which can be passing plays without reducing the number of running plays. He is an excellent up tempo qb and a faster game tempo works very well for him. Think about two td drives against Cleveland in under two minutes at the end of a half or several drives to get into FG range with very little time on the clock, like the "cramp" game against the Browns.

As to people who think we are going to be a pass happy team, it is not going to happen. LJ had 376 attempts last year in 15 games. Ravens as a team had 406 attempts. Big Ben had 608, Joe Burrows had 404 in ten games, Baker had 486. LJ had 401 in 15 games in 2019 so it was down year for him in 2020. I considered the target goal as 450 pass attempts for this year which will be 27-28 a game. 30 a game would be 510. So he goes from 22 to 27-28 passes a game. Last year pass total attempts were Hollywood 100, Andrews 88, Snead 48, Boykin 33, Duvernay 26, Boyle 17 in 9 games, Edwards, Hill, Dobbins and Ingram 50, Richards 12 Porche 3, others 14. That was 406 total but LJ missed one game and several quarters in blowouts. His total attempts were 376. Snead numbers will go to Bateman. That 44 more passes to go from 406 to 450 is not that many extra passes and when you spread them across what each should get this year. I see Hollywood 100, Andrews 80, Bateman 60, Watkins 40, Duvernay 40, Boykin 40, Boyle 35, RB 45, then Porche, Wallace or others might split 5-10 between them. 450 total. If one goes up ten somebody else will go down. 406 goes to 450 or about 44 more passes, less than 5 more a game more. Easy way to get 5 more passes a game is to just go faster. You can still call the same number of running plays and again LJ is a very good up tempo QB.

But will that be enough passes? That, 450, would have been good enough for 30-th last year in passing attempts in a 16 game season. and this year is a 17 game season. So add another 50 to get us up to 500, 28-29/ game. The real goal will be to up the average per pass attempt from 7.2 in 2020 to 7.6 2019 average with a final goal of 8.0 yards per pass attempt on more passes without reducing the running game. Point is we might be looking at about 44 more passes just to get to 450 but might need to go up to 94 to get up to 500 total attempts. Some fans seem to think we will throw 200-250 more passes but I just do not see than happening this year.

Be fun to start a contest to see who gets the right number of attempts. My guess is 450 for 3600 yards or 8.0 per attempt. What is your guess?

In your breakdown, are you protecting 40 for Watkins due to injury or that he'll be the third wr?

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[s.r.genovese]

I’m more concerned about the amount of passes on first down than the amount of overall passes. We should increase our overall volume slightly but we should run much much more 1st down PA than we have previously.

[Ravenswintitle]

I also think when they get a decent lead, they're going to run run run, which will affect the stats but that's ok...

[Rygar64]

I also think when they get a decent lead, they're going to run run run, which will affect the stats but that's ok...

That's probably the most basic yet most overlooked point when discussing the Ravens passing volume. Since Lamar took over as starter, they play most of their games with a lead. Once they have the lead, especially a sizeable one, our coaching staff takes the air out of the ball. I'm not saying it's a good thing or a bad thing - it's just how we roll. The fact that they don't play from behind very often is the main reason they are not good at playing from behind, lol.

[HotInHere]

We will still be a run first team this year. I do think we will be going much faster in getting plays off with time still left on the play clock. So far LJ has been told to run the play clock to almost zero on every snap. I expect him to snap the ball with ten or more seconds left this year. ...

That's a very interesting point. I am hoping that this is the year that Lamar takes more control at the LoS. It would be great if they got to the line quicker, but I could also see many times when Lamar uses those ten seconds to change the play and exploit the defense. That's my dream anyway.

As RWT and Rygar point out, it's all moot once we have a decent lead. They are going to run the playclock down in those situations, and let's hope that's a regular occurrence.

To your overall question, I'm going to say 500 for 3600 -- about 7.2 YPA. (8 YPA would have been second in the NFL last year, and I don't see that happening. 7.2 is still in the top 10.) A couple factors:
-- I expect more passes to running backs this year. I really think they are going to try to use Dobbins in the passing game, as they should. It opens up some exciting possibilities.
-- I expect more pass attempts because I don't think we are going to be playing as many fourth quarters with a 20 point lead. Most of the games on our schedule are very winnable, but we don't have the cakewalks we had last year, with a very bad Bengals team, the horrible NFC East, plus the Jags and Texans. Games will be more competitive this year.
-- You mention LJ had 401 in 15 games in 2019. But remember, he got pulled early because of blowouts a lot that year. He really only effectively played about 14 games. So that really projects to about 460 over a 16-game schedule. Projecting it to 17 games this year, that would be 486. So 500 seems pretty realistic to me this year.

[BcRaven]

The thread question isn't really for us fans to answer, it's for the opposing defense. IOW, it looks like our passing game, which had been lagging behind our running game, has now been strengthened. Is the football going to be handed off to Dobbins/Gus, is LJ going to run it, or is it going to be passed into the hands of Hollywood/Andrews/Watkins/Bateman? I don't care if the Ravens run the ball 40 times or 20 times, and the passing game rises/falls accordingly, as long as it keeps the opposing "D" off-balance and we win the game. EDC and Co. seem to have created a balanced attack, and as a die-hard Ravens fan, that makes me

The only stats that really count are wins and losses... Bc

[saintmatthew]

Once they have the lead, especially a sizeable one, our coaching staff takes the air out of the ball.

When they're not sending in the backups for practice at least.

[HotInHere]

The thread question isn't really for us fans to answer, it's for the opposing defense. IOW, it looks like our passing game, which had been lagging behind our running game, has now been strengthened. Is the football going to be handed off to Dobbins/Gus, is LJ going to run it, or is it going to be passed into the hands of Hollywood/Andrews/Watkins/Bateman? I don't care if the Ravens run the ball 40 times or 20 times, and the passing game rises/falls accordingly, as long as it keeps the opposing "D" off-balance and we win the game. EDC and Co. seem to have created a balanced attack, and as a die-hard Ravens fan, that makes me

The only stats that really count are wins and losses... Bc

I agree with you in general Bc. A lot will be dictated by circumstance. We are just predicting what we think the circumstances may dictate this year.

And to your point, I am FAAAR more concerned with passing efficiency than passing totals. YPA and TD/INT ratio are the key metrics. And in the "something that can't really be measured" department -- effectively using all parts of the field in the passing game will have an enormous impact on the running game as well. Make the defense cover everything, and it will be "pick your poison" all season long.

[QtR Nevermore]

I find season long statistical projections really hard to make but I do want to see pass attempts increase a little. I think the passing game has to be more of well oiled machine before we reach the playoffs.

I know that will be controversial because it's the fashion among thinking Ravens fans to view the fans who want more passing as idiots and it's true - a lot of them are - but I don't want to bash our heads into the same brick wall one more time.They have to become more threatening through the air.

Cleveland were a run heavy team last year. If Mayfield had 486 attempts last season that seems about the right balance to me (with a few more to account for game 17.)

[Desert Raven]

Been watching some old Ray Rice stuff lately, and it’s a shame what happened at the end sort of defines his career, he was a pretty awesome player. Anyway, if they can use Dobbins the way they used Rice to use the pass as an extension of the run, it could be deadly to opposing defenses. Would like to see LJ run a lot less anyway, but working Dobbins into space as a primary or dump off receiver (not as much as Flacco would do it) is something I hope to see.

[edromeo]

...Be fun to start a contest to see who gets the right number of attempts. My guess is 450 for 3600 yards or 8.0 per attempt. What is your guess?

510 passes.
30 attempts per game.

I hope i didn't screw up my math.

Great thread topic!
I've been thinking starting a thread like this for awhile.
Will give a more fleshed out explanation later.