Early Analysis of the 2021 Schedule

[WNCRavensFan]

Intriguing list

1) @ LV - Going to be tough as the visiting team in Vegas's first home game with fans. We'll get a good look at what kind of home field advantage the Raiders actually have. Jon Gruden is 6-8 as a head coach in Week 1 games. I don't think this is a trap game because it's week one. (W)

2) KC - Getting this one out of the way early, and second Prime Time game in a row, on a 6 day week. There will be so many story lines. The media wants no major injuries for sure. I'm uncomfortable saying the Ravens get over the hump, but I will because it's a home game. The fans really need to show out on this one. (W)

3) @ DET - The Lions get this home game sandwiched between road games @ GB and CHI. I really don't know what to think of this game, so I will default to history, and history says the Lions are a poorly run franchise and will need time for the new roster to gel. (W)

4) @ DEN - Third road game in four weeks to open the season. Better now than later I think. The Broncos could open the season 3-0 with games against both New York teams and Jacksonville. If they do, that would have a big impact on their confidence. I will use this as a game the Ravens would win on neutral terms but won't within context of the schedule. It also hedges my bet with the Chiefs game. (L)

5) IND - QB questions surrounding the Cots... will Carson Wentz's ship be righted by now with Frank Reich back in the fold? I'm going to say no. Colts open with a rough schedule and the Ravens get the extra day for the Monday Nighter at home. (W)

6) LAC - The Justin Herbert game. Ravens have a short week but get to stay at home. The Chargers have to play @ KC and vs CLE the two previous weeks. By now, early season injuries are having a major impact across the league... but I can't account for who so I have to assume full health. I don't think the Chargers have quite the horses on defense to pull off this potential swing game. (W)

7) CIN - Three straight home games after the 3/4 road games to start the season. This would be a terrible loss, just don't see that happening. Burrow will be running for his life again this season, but watch for their young trio of OL picks (Carman, Smith, Hill) to develop later. The Bengals have a lot of winnable games on their own schedule, but this ain't it. (W)

8) MIN - another home game and this time coming off a bye. Will the Ravens get complacent? Ehhh they're not a team that typically does that off a bye week. Minnesota is my easy pick to win a Rodgers-less NFC North but the deck is stacked against them in this game. (W)

9) @ MIA - on the road again, on a short week, against a team presumably coming off a high against the woeful Texans. Fair or not, there's a reason Tua Tagovailoa almost got the Josh Rosen treatment. You need good QB play to beat the Ravens; it simply will not happen otherwise in the Lamar Jackson era. But schedule-wise, this is a tough game and a potential loss. (W)

10) @ CHI - ten days to prepare for what will likely be a rookie QB. Even with a road game, I think this is one of the easiest games on the schedule. (W)

11) CLE - here we go... the end of the schedule ramps up difficulty big time, starting with the critical home game vs. CLE. You've probably noticed I have the Ravens with just one loss heading into this game. The Browns are going to be fired up but I'm going to stick with a home-and-home split. (W)

12) @ PIT - it's hard to picture the road game against the Steelers as a trap game but it kind of is. My brain is telling me that the Steelers will be fallen apart by now, but my heart says, no, it's still the Steelers road game. I've given the Ravens too many breaks and it's time for adversity to kick in. (L)

13) @ CLE - ...and here the adversity kicks in. I can only imagine the narratives following consecutive road losses to Pittsburgh and Cleveland, especially after starting the season 10-1. The sky will temporarily be falling. (L)

14) GB - the biggest Wild Card on the entire schedule. If Rodgers plays, the Ravens have to deal with him after road games against their division rivals. If he doesn't... well, it's a win, period. I can only shrug my shoulders and go with the surer outcome, because the Ravens still have a good chance to beat the Packers led by Rodgers. (W)

15) @ CIN - The Bengals will likely be a mess by now, and they don't have Marvin Lewis anymore to make late season runs at the Ravens. (W)

16) LAR - It feels way too far ahead to accurately project these games after a full season of injuries, firings and replacements. The Ravens are likely to lose a home game at some point during the season... but I can't see it. I don't see where it happens. Maybe it's here. This feels like a coin flip. (L)

17) PIT - In this scenario the Ravens have lost 3 of 5 and it's time to put the Steelers to bed. They do that. The city of Baltimore rejoices. (W)

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FINAL RECORD: 13-4, AFC North Champs (Browns 12-5, Steelers 9-8, Bengals 5-12)

[camdenyard]

Until the Ravens beat Mahomes, and I don't see it happening on a short week after an emotional season opener, I will not predict that we beat them.

And a loss against Denver?

[GA_Baltimorean]

WNC,

Great breakdown and I agree with most of this. The 4 games with CLE, PIT, and GB though look incredibly tough and I could see us realistically going 2-2 during that stretch. The KC game to me is an L unless we are able to have a full stadium of fans (Yes, I do think the fans could be the determining factor for this game). Overall, I think we can come to the same conclusion that 12-5 or 13-4 is a very realistic record for us.

[jhoff66]

Until the Ravens beat Mahomes, and I don't see it happening on a short week after an emotional season opener, I will not predict that we beat them.

And a loss against Denver?

My thoughts exactly. Def after getting our asses handed to us last year. Flip the outcomes on the Chiefs and Broncos game and I agree with pretty much everything else.

Colts/Miami game is going to be tough could see an extra loss thrown in on one of those games.

[pslholder96]

Posted this in another thread

We already knew on paper how tough this schedule was going to be.
3 of the first 4 on the road
Next 4 at home with a bye in between
4 of the next 5 on road
3 of last 4 at home
Week 8 bye - Could have been worse
5 primetime games -3 at home

[Bhcforlife]

Schedule doesn't seem tough to me. I must be missing something? Toughest games seem to be the Browns games and the Chiefs, maybe the Packers if Rodgers is there but at this point I'm not one who thinks he will be.

If the Ravens are: a) as good as they have been the past 2 years and b) can stay healthy at some key spots (QB, OL, DB) then none of the other teams worry me.

[BcRaven]

WNCR, thank you for your time and effort in giving us this breakdown. My thought is (hopefully) we go 11 - 5 and win the AFCN, but I'd take 10 - 6 if it meant a Wild Card spot. It's a tough schedule and the end (December and January) can be grueling. I don't take any wins (or losses) for granted, but I feel we have the goods to make the playoffs once again. If we're still playing football in mid-January, that would make me ... Bc

[pslholder96]

Adding to that heavy dose of the AFC west within the first 4 weeks of the season and heavy dose of divisional games in the last 7 weeks. 5 against divisional opponents.

[Ravenswintitle]

Lamar played KC twice at their place and once at home with no fans. This one he should finally have home field advantage.

[MarkS]

WNCR, thank you for your time and effort in giving us this breakdown. My thought is (hopefully) we go 11 - 5 and win the AFCN, but I'd take 10 - 6 if it meant a Wild Card spot. It's a tough schedule and the end (December and January) can be grueling. I don't take any wins (or losses) for granted, but I feel we have the goods to make the playoffs once again. If we're still playing football in mid-January, that would make me ... Bc

You're missing a game.

[BcRaven]

You're missing a game.

OY Vey! As you can see I'm a New Yorker (LOL) You're right, thanks Mark. Then I'll emend that to 12 - 5 (AFCN winners) or 11 - 6 (Wild Card)... Bc

P.S. - The wife thinks I'm missing something too

[TDLand]

I agree with your wife 1st Pittsburgh game is at home not on the road. Last game is in Pittsburgh.

OY Vey! As you can see I'm a New Yorker (LOL) You're right, thanks Mark. Then I'll emend that to 12 - 5 (AFCN winners) or 11 - 6 (Wild Card)... Bc

P.S. - The wife thinks I'm missing something too