Revisiting the 2018 Draft

[BcRaven]

I can't call anything about the 2018 draft a total disaster. Some people on this board get WAAAAAAAY too hung up on Hurst. He's just one pick.

And he'd still be with the Ravens as a perfectly average starting TE if they hadn't drafted Andrews. It wasn't a great pick but it wasn't a disaster either.

Gentlemen, please re-read my post (#8) and you'll see I NEVER called this a total disaster, if that's what you're intimating :

"...at least we got a couple decent years out of Hurst, then his trade turned into Dobbins. Otherwise, passing on Calvin Ridley would have been a TOTAL disaster"

... Bc

[Jfoh]

Ravens have a history of picking two te when they draft one. Pita and Dixon, Williams and Boyle, Hurst and Andrews. The Ravens have a method to their drafting a position of need. Take two since at best 50% of all draft picks are bust. Two TE in 2018, two Wr in three drafts. This is why EDC spend so much attention to having as many picks as possible. Give him seven and he can keep the team from dropping off talent wise too much but he will have to overpay for a free agent or two. Give him ten or more picks and the talent level gets better every year and any free agents are bargain buys. Next year he will have seven picks in the first four rounds. With that ammo he can reload as he goes.

[Rygar64]

And he'd still be with the Ravens as a perfectly average starting TE if they hadn't drafted Andrews. It wasn't a great pick but it wasn't a disaster either.

If they hadn't drafted Andrews, I think he'd be above average with the Ravens...perhaps even approaching the stats that Mandrews has put up. People also discount that he was hurt at the start of his rookie season and missed valuable time and chemistry with Joe and the offense. Then hit the field right when the season was teetering, then had to switch to an entirely different role once Lamar took over and they changed the offense. And he still wasn't bad during his time here. I'm still pissed that the Ravens gambled the way they did and they should have taken Lamar first knowing what we know now. But the dynamics were much different back then. Hurst was a pick to help Flacco.

[QtR Nevermore]

Gentlemen, please re-read my post (#8) and you'll see I NEVER called this a total disaster, if that's what you're intimating :

"...at least we got a couple decent years out of Hurst, then his trade turned into Dobbins. Otherwise, passing on Calvin Ridley would have been a TOTAL disaster"

... Bc

I think WNC was talking about the board in general rather than your post in particular. That's how I took it when I responded. (I never even noticed we'd both used the word "disaster" until now.)

[WNCRavensFan]

I think WNC was talking about the board in general rather than your post in particular. That's how I took it when I responded. (I never even noticed we'd both used the word "disaster" until now.)

What I mean is, even if Hurst never played an NFL snap, and wasn't traded for Dobbins, and everything else remained the same, it's still one of the best drafts in franchise history.

Compare to the 2003 draft. The Ravens had two first round picks and traded up for the second one to draft a QB. The difference is, the complete whiff was the QB (Kyle Boller) and the probable HOF player was a non-QB (Terrell Suggs). End result: Brian Billick gets fired. He says as much himself, Boller got him fired.

2003 followed Suggs up with Jarret Johnson, Ovie Mughelli, Aubrayo Franklin, Tony Pashos and Gerome Sapp. It was a pretty good draft... if you take away the QB bust.

[RevBarnes]

Re Hurst: I guessed that the Ravens were going to go for two TE in 2018 and that Hurst would be the first round pick. The reason I thought it would be Hurst in the first is that word was that he was the best inline blocker of the 4 major TE's who were available.

Of course my "expertise" was pretty much based on Walterfootball and NFL.com.

[jonboy79]

If they hadn't drafted Andrews, I think he'd be above average with the Ravens...perhaps even approaching the stats that Mandrews has put up. People also discount that he was hurt at the start of his rookie season and missed valuable time and chemistry with Joe and the offense. Then hit the field right when the season was teetering, then had to switch to an entirely different role once Lamar took over and they changed the offense. And he still wasn't bad during his time here. I'm still pissed that the Ravens gambled the way they did and they should have taken Lamar first knowing what we know now. But the dynamics were much different back then. Hurst was a pick to help Flacco.

Mehhhh.... It wasn’t just the head start, Mandrews is a much better player...


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[WNCRavensFan]

Ravens drafts by cumulative career AV (because I don't have a better method right now)

300 - 1996 (R. Lewis 157)
279 - 2003 (T. Suggs 109)
255 - 2006 (H. Ngata 99)
226 - 2002 (E. Reed 110)
220 - 1997 (J. Sharper 60)
194 - 2013 (B. Williams 48)
193 - 2008 (J. Flacco 92)
191 - 2007 (M. Yanda 100)
190 - 2000 (J. Lewis 71)
159 - 1999 (C. McAlister 72)
159 - 2011 (T. Taylor 42)
156 - 2018 (L. Jackson 47)
136 - 2001 (T. Heap 43)
125 - 2009 (M. Oher 47)
122 - 2016 (R. Stanley 41)
119 - 2014 (C. Mosley 63)
106 - 2015 (Z. Smith 36)
104 - 2012 (K. Osemele 52)
93 - 2005 (J. Brown 30)
76 - 2017 (M. Humphrey 35)
68 - 2010 (A. Jones 19)
65 - 1998 (D. Starks 39)
46 - 2004 (D. Edwards 31)
39 - 2019 (M. Brown 17)
32 - 2020 (P. Queen 9)

Again this is after three seasons.

[Shrubbs]

Ravens drafts by cumulative career AV (because I don't have a better method right now)

300 - 1996 (R. Lewis 157)
279 - 2003 (T. Suggs 109)
255 - 2006 (H. Ngata 99)
226 - 2002 (E. Reed 110)
220 - 1997 (J. Sharper 60)
194 - 2013 (B. Williams 48)
193 - 2008 (J. Flacco 92)
191 - 2007 (M. Yanda 100)
190 - 2000 (J. Lewis 71)
159 - 1999 (C. McAlister 72)
159 - 2011 (T. Taylor 42)
156 - 2018 (L. Jackson 47)
136 - 2001 (T. Heap 43)
125 - 2009 (M. Oher 47)
122 - 2016 (R. Stanley 41)
119 - 2014 (C. Mosley 63)
106 - 2015 (Z. Smith 36)
104 - 2012 (K. Osemele 52)
93 - 2005 (J. Brown 30)
76 - 2017 (M. Humphrey 35)
68 - 2010 (A. Jones 19)
65 - 1998 (D. Starks 39)
46 - 2004 (D. Edwards 31)
39 - 2019 (M. Brown 17)
32 - 2020 (P. Queen 9)

Again this is after three seasons.

Can you explain this stat to me

[WNCRavensFan]

Can you explain this stat to me

It's an attempt at putting a value on an NFL player's career, similar to WAR in Baseball. It's a cumulative stat; players get a value each season and then you add whichever seasons up that you want.

It's flawed, believe me, but it's something useful. It tends to favor playing time/% of snaps over quality of snaps and also doesn't do much for special teams players (since there aren't that many ST snaps in a football game).

QBs naturally get the highest AV scores because they're the most important position on the field.

Last season, the leaders in AV were:
20 Aaron Donald
19 Josh Allen, Jalen Ramsey
18 Aaron Rodgers, Fred Warner, TJ Watt, Russell Wilson
17 Derrick Henry, Xavien Howard, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray

The year before saw this leaderboard:
25 Lamar Jackson
21 Stephon Gilmore, Marcus Peters
19 Minkah Fitzpatrick
18 Ronnie Stanley, Michael Thomas, Tre'Davious White
17 Cameron Heyward, Dont'a Hightower, Patrick Mahomes

[Shrubbs]

It's an attempt at putting a value on an NFL player's career, similar to WAR in Baseball. It's a cumulative stat; players get a value each season and then you add whichever seasons up that you want.

It's flawed, believe me, but it's something useful. It tends to favor playing time/% of snaps over quality of snaps and also doesn't do much for special teams players (since there aren't that many ST snaps in a football game).

QBs naturally get the highest AV scores because they're the most important position on the field.

Last season, the leaders in AV were:
20 Aaron Donald
19 Josh Allen, Jalen Ramsey
18 Aaron Rodgers, Fred Warner, TJ Watt, Russell Wilson
17 Derrick Henry, Xavien Howard, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray

The year before saw this leaderboard:
25 Lamar Jackson
21 Stephon Gilmore, Marcus Peters
19 Minkah Fitzpatrick
18 Ronnie Stanley, Michael Thomas, Tre'Davious White
17 Cameron Heyward, Dont'a Hightower, Patrick Mahomes

Let me ask it simply

156 - 2018 (L. Jackson 47)

What do the 156 and 47 mean?

[Jesse Stovall]

Let me ask it simply

156 - 2018 (L. Jackson 47)

What do the 156 and 47 mean?

47 is Lamar's cumulative AV
156 is the cumulative AV of all draft picks