Revisiting the 2018 Draft

[WNCRavensFan]

It's been three years and now we're entering year four. It's time to properly evaluate the Lamar Jackson draft. Talking heads are doing so:

Pete Prisco, CBS

Most "Re-drafts" occurred one year after the actual draft, which is still too early. I'm luke-warm on Prisco, but he does this right by waiting three years, and is willing to show when and where he was wrong.

He gives the Ravens and Bills an "A" while two teams get an "A+" in the Colts and Buccaneers. I respectfully disagree, I think the 2018 Ravens draft class is at least top five in the past ten years. But I'll take it from him. And his grades for the record are harsh. I think he's blinded by Tampa's recent Super Bowl; there's no way that's an "A+" by his grading curve.

Jeff Kerr, CBS

This one focuses on the QBs from Mayfield to Jackson. Interesting stuff. This was in January so Darnold hadn't been traded yet; everything else has remained steady.

[WNCRavensFan]

And now, presenting the Haters Guide to the 2018 Draft by notorious Steelers fan/hater UrinatingTree



This is an interesting watch three years later

[WNCRavensFan]

Imported from the Hayden Hurst thread

I consider a first round pick a hit or miss based on whether their fifth year option is picked up. There are rare exceptions but I think based on the current CBA it makes the best sense. So with that

2018 FIRST ROUND

1. Baker Mayfield
2. Saquon Barkley
3. Sam Darnold
4. Denzel Ward
5. Bradley Chubb
6. Quenton Nelson
7. Josh Allen
8. Roquan Smith
9. Mike McGlinchey
10. Josh Rosen
11. Minkah Fitzpatrick
12. Vita Vea
13. Daron Payne
14. Marcus Davenport
15. Kolton Miller
16. Tremaine Edmunds
17. Derwin James
18. Jaire Alexander
19. Leighton Vander Esch
20. Frank Ragnow
21. Billy Price
22. Rashaad Evans
23. Isaiah Wynn
24. DJ Moore
25. Hayden Hurst
26. Calvin Ridley
27. Rashaad Penny
28. Terrell Edmunds
29. Taven Bryan
30. Mike Hughes
31. Sony Michel
32. Lamar Jackson


5th year option exercised (or contract extended)
5th year option declined (or cut)

Having 18 of the top 20 picks get their fifth year is pretty amazing, despite one of them being from a different team (Darnold). Vander Esch would have but he suffered a debilitating injury.

Also, don't draft a RB in round one.

Round 1 did end up being one of the better round 1s in recent memory, particularly through those first 20 picks. The last part of Round 1 you see a big drop off, and then Lamar Jackson shining at the bottom.

Through just three seasons you already have 7 All Pro selections between four players and 16 Pro Bowl selections between 12 players. Only 10 of 32 picks haven't been a primary starter for their team for at least 2 of those 3 seasons.

The five picks before Lamar Jackson were particularly awful, and fortuitous for the Ravens. Two of those picks were at RB, much like the 2021 draft where Najee Harris and Travis Etienne went in the five picks before Baltimore took Rashod Bateman at pick 27. Hopefully for their sake, they have better starts to their career than Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel.

Penny, Edmunds, Bryan and Michel were also all questionable picks on draft day, and wouldn't you know we the public were right. I recall Hughes being a home run swing of a pick that ended up as a strike out.

[WNCRavensFan]

Past round one you don't have the fifth year option to exercise, so the question is more simple and immediate - will you still be on the team that draft him entering the final year of your rookie deal?

Past year three, there is a diminishing contract return and usually a roster crunch. So you really have to contribute to the NFL team that drafted you to avoid being cut.

Sometimes, circumstances dictate moving a player, and this is the case with Orlando Brown Jr. If it weren't for his desire to play LT, he would absolutely still be with the team, but he was traded. These cases however are rare.

Ultimately the Ravens hit on half of their 12 picks. It's possible Averett is cut this season but I doubt it. The rest are locks.

Hits (6) - Jackson, Andrews, Brown Jr, Averett, Bozeman, Elliott
Misses (6) - Hurst, Scott, Young, Lasley, Senat, Sieler

A 50% hit rate with that many picks in a draft is a huge win. That five of those picks are quality starters is an even bigger win. 2018 is one of the better drafts in franchise history; where it ends up compared to the other great drafts, there is still much time to tell. A decision must be made on Andrews, Bozeman and Elliott regarding a second contract in Baltimore.

Even their misses are enjoying success elsewhere... Sieler is a double miss, because not only did the team cut him but the team that picked him up (Miami) gave him a contract extension. Oops. But it still means he was a worthy draft pick. Kenny Young was traded in the now-infamous Marcus Peters fleecing, but he did start 6 games with the Rams in 2020 and has improved as a player. Even Greg Senat is settling into a reserve OT role, he suited up for 10 games in Dallas and is now on a 1 yr deal with Cleveland.

The only picks in the entire draft that were truly swings and misses were the two WR, Jaleel Scott (waived from NY) and Jordan Lasley (out of the league entirely). This particular draft really fed into the narrative that already existed, that the Ravens cannot scout and/or develop WR talent. This draft marked the first of FOUR consecutive drafts that the Ravens took 2 WRs in:

2018 - Scott, Lasley
2019 - Brown, Boykin
2020 - Duvernay, Proche
2021 - Bateman, Wallace

No other team in the NFL can make this claim.

[boller4president]

I can't read that without wondering why the heck we never took Ridley and was clearly the BPA. He was right there. Ugh

[QtR Nevermore]

It's been three years and now we're entering year four. It's time to properly evaluate the Lamar Jackson draft. Talking heads are doing so:

Pete Prisco, CBS

I read halfway through that Prisco article before I decided his main concern was with spinning how successful or not various players had been to try to make his initial grades seem right. It was more of an exercise for his ego than an objective look, in my view.

[WNCRavensFan]

I read halfway through that Prisco article before I decided his main concern was with spinning how successful or not various players had been to try to make his initial grades seem right. It was more of an exercise for his ego than an objective look, in my view.

Oh, absolutely. Like I said I'm lukewarm on Prisco. His article provides a talking point, nothing more.

The fact is, most of us fall into the same trap, myself included. I like it when I'm right.

[BcRaven]

I can't read that without wondering why the heck we never took Ridley and was clearly the BPA. He was right there. Ugh

Certainly agree with you there. Thankfully, at least we got a couple decent years out of Hurst, then his trade turned into Dobbins. Otherwise, passing on Calvin Ridley (26 TDs/3,061 yards in 3 years/44 pro games) would have been a TOTAL disaster... Bc

[WNCRavensFan]

Certainly agree with you there. Thankfully, at least we got a couple decent years out of Hurst, then his trade turned into Dobbins. Otherwise, passing on Calvin Ridley (26 TDs/3,061 yards in 3 years/44 pro games) would have been a TOTAL disaster... Bc

I can't call anything about the 2018 draft a total disaster. Some people on this board get WAAAAAAAY too hung up on Hurst. He's just one pick.

[QtR Nevermore]

I can't call anything about the 2018 draft a total disaster. Some people on this board get WAAAAAAAY too hung up on Hurst. He's just one pick.

And he'd still be with the Ravens as a perfectly average starting TE if they hadn't drafted Andrews. It wasn't a great pick but it wasn't a disaster either.

[InigoMontoya]

And he'd still be with the Ravens as a perfectly average starting TE if they hadn't drafted Andrews. It wasn't a great pick but it wasn't a disaster either.

He'd be starting in Atlanta again if they hadn't drafted a once-in-a-generation TE. Hurst is a solid starter, but I think Prisco and others label him as a failure since he was traded.

[BokkaByBirth]

Perhaps the issue with Hurst was more that his pick and Andrews (in hindsight) make considerably more sense if they had been the other way around? I don't think anyone would be complaining about that?