Results 1 to 12 of 19
-
05-03-2021, 10:16 AM #1
2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)
I know there have been some mixed reactions to this year's draft class, but one thing I loved was the trade with the Arizona. Between that, the OBJ trade, and comp picks we've built up a pretty large collection of mid-to-late round picks for 2022.
Trades That Affected 2022 Picks
Vikings
We Gave:
Ravens 2021 3rd
Ravens 2022 5th (conditional ... no idea what the condition is)
We Got
Yannick Ngakoue
Chiefs
We Gave:
OBJ
Ravens 2021 2nd
Ravens 2022 6th
We Got:
Chiefs 2021 1st
Chiefs 2021 3rd
Chiefs 2021 4th
Chiefs 2022 5th
Cardinals
We Gave:
Chiefs 2021 4th
Ravens 2021 6th
We Got:
Cardinals 2021 5th
Cardinals 2022 4th
Comp Picks
We will get a 3rd round comp for David Culley being hired as Texans head coach
We are projected to get two 4th round comp picks for Judon and Ngakoue
Total 2022 Haul
Since I don't know the condition on the 2022 5th we sent for Ngakoue, I'm going to assume it's still a 5th. If someone knows more about this please post in the thread and I'll update the OP.
Ravens 1st
Ravens 2nd
Ravens 3rd
Culley Comp (3rd)
Cardinals 4th
Ravens 4th
Judon Comp (4th)
Ngakoue Comp(4th)
Chiefs 5th
Ravens 7th*
Edit:
*Conditional. If Oliver makes the roster than Jacksonville gets this pick.
Thanks BMW600 for mentioning this!Last edited by Kyle Cactus; 05-06-2021 at 09:22 AM.
-
05-03-2021, 10:16 AM #2
Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)
Analyzing the Cardinals Trade
My favorite trade value chart is the one form FootballPerspective. It looks at player AV over their 1st 5 years. I think this is a great way to do a trade value chart, because after a player's rookie contract you're typically paying market value for their services. Most of the advantage the pick provides is the cheap production you can get during the rookie deal.
Obviously there can be some long term benefit above what you pay in cap space for veteran players, but that can go both ways. There's no perfect chart, but I think this one is pretty excellent. So I'll use it to analyze this trade.
One other caveat is that teams may discount the value of future picks. From the perspective of the average head coach or an on-the-hot-seat GM this makes sense. They need to win now. For a franchise (and therefore from a fans perspective) I don't think it makes sense as a general rule. Obviously you may have specific contexts ("win now mode") where you can argue for it, but to me the value of a pick is the same no matter the year.
Using the FP chart the value of the picks the Ravens gave up is:
2021 Pick 136 - 3.32
2021 Pick 210 - 0.55
The value of the picks the Ravens gained was:
2021 Pick 160 - 2.28
2022 Cards 4th ~ 4.06
The Cardinals were 16th in the draft order this year. Since that's middle of the round anyway I used it as an approximate estimate for where they might pick in the draft order next year. With the number of 3rd round comps there were this year that works out to pick 121. Both the Cardinals draft position and the number of 3rd round picks could change. OTC is currently projecting 6 3rd round comps for next year (as opposed to the 10 there were this year), but more could be added because of any minority coach hires next year or because of a shift in a players' comp formulas.
So all-in-all the Ravens gained a value of 2.48, which is equivalent to pick 155 (this year that was Rnd 5 Pick 11).
-
05-03-2021, 10:20 AM #3
Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)
BTW, the FP trade chart seems to follow this formula:
-6.366*NaturalLog(Pick#)+34.592
I used that to calculate all the values, so there could be some roundoff error relative to the chart.
-
Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)
just posted the same (although abbreviated) in the EDC rate thread. Loaded next year...
World Domination 3 Points at a Time!
-
05-03-2021, 10:45 PM #5
- Join Date
- Jun 2016
- Location
- Westminster OG, now behind enemy lines in NE
- Posts
- 23,073
- Blog Entries
- 1
-
05-03-2021, 10:47 PM #6
-
05-03-2021, 10:52 PM #7
- Join Date
- Jun 2016
- Location
- Westminster OG, now behind enemy lines in NE
- Posts
- 23,073
- Blog Entries
- 1
-
05-03-2021, 11:08 PM #8
Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)
The conditional 5th round pick was originally between the Jaguars and the Vikings, and the trade language meant that condition followed Ngakoue to Baltimore. The 5th round conditional would become a 4th rounder if Ngakoue made the Pro Bowl, and would become a 3rd rounder if Ngakoue made the Pro Bowl and the Vikings (or by extension, the Ravens) won the Super Bowl. So I believe the 5th rounder is all it is because the other conditions were not met.
Here is the report from Adam Schefter at ESPN: "Minnesota acquired Ngakoue from the Jaguars this past summer for a second-round draft pick and a conditional fifth-round pick. The fifth-round pick becomes a fourth-rounder if Ngakoue goes to the Pro Bowl this season, and it turns into a third-round pick if he goes to the Pro Bowl and the Vikings win the Super Bowl.
Those same conditions still apply to Ngakoue as a Raven, according to the language in the trade between the Jaguars and Vikings. The language in the trade agreement is not team-specific, a source told ESPN."
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...nesota-vikings
-
05-04-2021, 01:16 PM #9Regular 1st Stringer
- Join Date
- Sep 2011
- Location
- Pittsburgh, PA
- Posts
- 303
Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)
Just a reminder that the 7th round pick is conditional. If Oliver makes the roster, the pick goes to Jacksonville.
Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
-
05-04-2021, 01:36 PM #10Regular 1st Stringer
- Join Date
- Mar 2019
- Posts
- 195
Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)
Good point... Which increases the likelihood that Oliver's preseason game action is limited and he is stashed for a week or 2 on the PS to avoid paying the 7th rounder. That supposes he isn't cut due to a lack of talent. Either way... we seem likely to keep the 7th rounder in order to trade it later. lol
-
-
Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)
Idk I wanna see what Olivers got. He was a good prospect 2 years ago and may have been productive of it wasn't for back to back season ending injuries. He's a bit of a long shot but I wanna see what he can do in the pre season... best case scenario he replaces what Hurst did for us in 2019.
Bookmarks