2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)

**Kyle Cactus** · 05-03-2021, 10:16 AM

I know there have been some mixed reactions to this year's draft class, but one thing I loved was the trade with the Arizona. Between that, the OBJ trade, and comp picks we've built up a pretty large collection of mid-to-late round picks for 2022.

Trades That Affected 2022 Picks
Vikings
We Gave:
Ravens 2021 3rd
Ravens 2022 5th (conditional ... no idea what the condition is)

We Got
Yannick Ngakoue

Chiefs
We Gave:
OBJ
Ravens 2021 2nd
Ravens 2022 6th

We Got:
Chiefs 2021 1st
Chiefs 2021 3rd
Chiefs 2021 4th
Chiefs 2022 5th

Cardinals
We Gave:
Chiefs 2021 4th
Ravens 2021 6th

We Got:
Cardinals 2021 5th
Cardinals 2022 4th

Comp Picks
We will get a 3rd round comp for David Culley being hired as Texans head coach
We are projected to get two 4th round comp picks for Judon and Ngakoue

Total 2022 Haul
Since I don't know the condition on the 2022 5th we sent for Ngakoue, I'm going to assume it's still a 5th. If someone knows more about this please post in the thread and I'll update the OP.

Ravens 1st
Ravens 2nd
Ravens 3rd
Culley Comp (3rd)
Cardinals 4th
Ravens 4th
Judon Comp (4th)
Ngakoue Comp(4th)
Chiefs 5th
Ravens 7th*

Edit:
*Conditional. If Oliver makes the roster than Jacksonville gets this pick.
Thanks BMW600 for mentioning this!

**Kyle Cactus** · 05-03-2021, 10:16 AM

Analyzing the Cardinals Trade
My favorite trade value chart is the one form FootballPerspective. It looks at player AV over their 1st 5 years. I think this is a great way to do a trade value chart, because after a player's rookie contract you're typically paying market value for their services. Most of the advantage the pick provides is the cheap production you can get during the rookie deal.

Obviously there can be some long term benefit above what you pay in cap space for veteran players, but that can go both ways. There's no perfect chart, but I think this one is pretty excellent. So I'll use it to analyze this trade.

One other caveat is that teams may discount the value of future picks. From the perspective of the average head coach or an on-the-hot-seat GM this makes sense. They need to win now. For a franchise (and therefore from a fans perspective) I don't think it makes sense as a general rule. Obviously you may have specific contexts ("win now mode") where you can argue for it, but to me the value of a pick is the same no matter the year.

Using the FP chart the value of the picks the Ravens gave up is:
2021 Pick 136 - 3.32
2021 Pick 210 - 0.55

The value of the picks the Ravens gained was:
2021 Pick 160 - 2.28
2022 Cards 4th ~ 4.06

The Cardinals were 16th in the draft order this year. Since that's middle of the round anyway I used it as an approximate estimate for where they might pick in the draft order next year. With the number of 3rd round comps there were this year that works out to pick 121. Both the Cardinals draft position and the number of 3rd round picks could change. OTC is currently projecting 6 3rd round comps for next year (as opposed to the 10 there were this year), but more could be added because of any minority coach hires next year or because of a shift in a players' comp formulas.

So all-in-all the Ravens gained a value of 2.48, which is equivalent to pick 155 (this year that was Rnd 5 Pick 11).

**Kyle Cactus** · 05-03-2021, 10:20 AM

BTW, the FP trade chart seems to follow this formula:
-6.366*NaturalLog(Pick#)+34.592

I used that to calculate all the values, so there could be some roundoff error relative to the chart.

**Ravenswintitle** · 05-03-2021, 10:20 AM

just posted the same (although abbreviated) in the EDC rate thread. Loaded next year...

**Iamjacks** · 05-03-2021, 10:45 PM

Originally Posted by Kyle Cactus

I know there have been some mixed reactions to this year's draft class, but one thing I loved was the trade with the Arizona. Between that, the OBJ trade, and comp picks we've built up a pretty large collection of mid-to-late round picks for 2022.

Trades That Affected 2022 Picks
Vikings
We Gave:
Ravens 2021 3rd
Ravens 2022 5th (conditional ... no idea what the condition is)

We Got
Yannick Ngakoue

Chiefs
We Gave:
OBJ
Ravens 2021 2nd
Ravens 2022 6th

We Got:
Chiefs 2021 1st
Chiefs 2021 3rd
Chiefs 2021 4th
Chiefs 2022 5th

Cardinals
We Gave:
Chiefs 2021 4th
Ravens 2021 6th

We Got:
Cardinals 2021 5th
Cardinals 2022 4th

Comp Picks
We will get a 3rd round comp for David Culley being hired as Texans head coach
We are projected to get two 4th round comp picks for Judon and Ngakoue

Total 2022 Haul
Since I don't know the condition on the 2022 5th we sent for Ngakoue, I'm going to assume it's still a 5th. If someone knows more about this please post in the thread and I'll update the OP.

Ravens 1st
Ravens 2nd
Ravens 3rd
Culley Comp (3rd)
Cardinals 4th
Ravens 4th
Judon Comp (4th)
Ngakoue Comp(4th)
Chiefs 5th
Ravens 7th

That's a lot of fourth round picks. I think I haven't seen that many since the year we drafted Judon and Moore

**sflegend89** · 05-03-2021, 10:47 PM

Originally Posted by Iamjacks

That's a lot of fourth round picks. I think I haven't seen that many since the year we drafted Judon and Moore

EDC has made a deal at the trade deadline the last 2 seasons, I think he might ship one out before it's all said and done. Four 4ths just feels like overkill, too much developmental talent to squeeze on the roster

**Iamjacks** · 05-03-2021, 10:52 PM

Originally Posted by sflegend89

EDC has made a deal at the trade deadline the last 2 seasons, I think he might ship one out before it's all said and done. Four 4ths just feels like overkill, too much developmental talent to squeeze on the roster

He's mercurial enough to do just that. But didn't the Ravens have 13 picks that year? It was nutsy.

**alien bird** · 05-03-2021, 11:08 PM

Originally Posted by Kyle Cactus

I don't know the condition on the 2022 5th we sent for Ngakoue, I'm going to assume it's still a 5th. If someone knows more about this please post in the thread and I'll update the OP.

The conditional 5th round pick was originally between the Jaguars and the Vikings, and the trade language meant that condition followed Ngakoue to Baltimore. The 5th round conditional would become a 4th rounder if Ngakoue made the Pro Bowl, and would become a 3rd rounder if Ngakoue made the Pro Bowl and the Vikings (or by extension, the Ravens) won the Super Bowl. So I believe the 5th rounder is all it is because the other conditions were not met.

Here is the report from Adam Schefter at ESPN: "Minnesota acquired Ngakoue from the Jaguars this past summer for a second-round draft pick and a conditional fifth-round pick. The fifth-round pick becomes a fourth-rounder if Ngakoue goes to the Pro Bowl this season, and it turns into a third-round pick if he goes to the Pro Bowl and the Vikings win the Super Bowl.

Those same conditions still apply to Ngakoue as a Raven, according to the language in the trade between the Jaguars and Vikings. The language in the trade agreement is not team-specific, a source told ESPN."

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...nesota-vikings

**bmw600** · 05-04-2021, 01:16 PM

Just a reminder that the 7th round pick is conditional. If Oliver makes the roster, the pick goes to Jacksonville.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

**Jesse Stovall** · 05-04-2021, 01:36 PM

Originally Posted by bmw600

Just a reminder that the 7th round pick is conditional. If Oliver makes the roster, the pick goes to Jacksonville.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

Good point... Which increases the likelihood that Oliver's preseason game action is limited and he is stashed for a week or 2 on the PS to avoid paying the 7th rounder. That supposes he isn't cut due to a lack of talent. Either way... we seem likely to keep the 7th rounder in order to trade it later. lol

**RavensFanMania** · 05-04-2021, 02:13 PM

Originally Posted by Iamjacks

That's a lot of fourth round picks. I think I haven't seen that many since the year we drafted Judon and Moore

Judon was a 5th rounder, but it was the same year we had 5 4th rounders.

Our 4th rounders
Tavon Young
Chris Moore
Alex Lewis
Willie Henry
Kenneth Dixon

**leachisabeast** · 05-04-2021, 05:51 PM

Originally Posted by Jesse Stovall

Good point... Which increases the likelihood that Oliver's preseason game action is limited and he is stashed for a week or 2 on the PS to avoid paying the 7th rounder. That supposes he isn't cut due to a lack of talent. Either way... we seem likely to keep the 7th rounder in order to trade it later. lol

Idk I wanna see what Olivers got. He was a good prospect 2 years ago and may have been productive of it wasn't for back to back season ending injuries. He's a bit of a long shot but I wanna see what he can do in the pre season... best case scenario he replaces what Hurst did for us in 2019.