Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 12 of 19
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Baltimore
    Posts
    2,353

    2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)

    I know there have been some mixed reactions to this year's draft class, but one thing I loved was the trade with the Arizona. Between that, the OBJ trade, and comp picks we've built up a pretty large collection of mid-to-late round picks for 2022.

    Trades That Affected 2022 Picks
    Vikings
    We Gave:
    Ravens 2021 3rd
    Ravens 2022 5th (conditional ... no idea what the condition is)

    We Got
    Yannick Ngakoue

    Chiefs
    We Gave:
    OBJ
    Ravens 2021 2nd
    Ravens 2022 6th

    We Got:
    Chiefs 2021 1st
    Chiefs 2021 3rd
    Chiefs 2021 4th
    Chiefs 2022 5th

    Cardinals
    We Gave:
    Chiefs 2021 4th
    Ravens 2021 6th

    We Got:
    Cardinals 2021 5th
    Cardinals 2022 4th

    Comp Picks
    We will get a 3rd round comp for David Culley being hired as Texans head coach
    We are projected to get two 4th round comp picks for Judon and Ngakoue

    Total 2022 Haul
    Since I don't know the condition on the 2022 5th we sent for Ngakoue, I'm going to assume it's still a 5th. If someone knows more about this please post in the thread and I'll update the OP.

    Ravens 1st
    Ravens 2nd
    Ravens 3rd
    Culley Comp (3rd)
    Cardinals 4th
    Ravens 4th
    Judon Comp (4th)
    Ngakoue Comp(4th)
    Chiefs 5th
    Ravens 7th*

    Edit:
    *Conditional. If Oliver makes the roster than Jacksonville gets this pick.
    Thanks BMW600 for mentioning this!
    Last edited by Kyle Cactus; 05-06-2021 at 09:22 AM.





  2. #2
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Baltimore
    Posts
    2,353

    Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)

    Analyzing the Cardinals Trade
    My favorite trade value chart is the one form FootballPerspective. It looks at player AV over their 1st 5 years. I think this is a great way to do a trade value chart, because after a player's rookie contract you're typically paying market value for their services. Most of the advantage the pick provides is the cheap production you can get during the rookie deal.

    Obviously there can be some long term benefit above what you pay in cap space for veteran players, but that can go both ways. There's no perfect chart, but I think this one is pretty excellent. So I'll use it to analyze this trade.

    One other caveat is that teams may discount the value of future picks. From the perspective of the average head coach or an on-the-hot-seat GM this makes sense. They need to win now. For a franchise (and therefore from a fans perspective) I don't think it makes sense as a general rule. Obviously you may have specific contexts ("win now mode") where you can argue for it, but to me the value of a pick is the same no matter the year.

    Using the FP chart the value of the picks the Ravens gave up is:
    2021 Pick 136 - 3.32
    2021 Pick 210 - 0.55

    The value of the picks the Ravens gained was:
    2021 Pick 160 - 2.28
    2022 Cards 4th ~ 4.06

    The Cardinals were 16th in the draft order this year. Since that's middle of the round anyway I used it as an approximate estimate for where they might pick in the draft order next year. With the number of 3rd round comps there were this year that works out to pick 121. Both the Cardinals draft position and the number of 3rd round picks could change. OTC is currently projecting 6 3rd round comps for next year (as opposed to the 10 there were this year), but more could be added because of any minority coach hires next year or because of a shift in a players' comp formulas.

    So all-in-all the Ravens gained a value of 2.48, which is equivalent to pick 155 (this year that was Rnd 5 Pick 11).





  3. #3
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Baltimore
    Posts
    2,353

    Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)

    BTW, the FP trade chart seems to follow this formula:
    -6.366*NaturalLog(Pick#)+34.592

    I used that to calculate all the values, so there could be some roundoff error relative to the chart.





  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    South Florida
    Posts
    47,503
    Blog Entries
    1

    Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)

    just posted the same (although abbreviated) in the EDC rate thread. Loaded next year...
    World Domination 3 Points at a Time!





  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Location
    Westminster OG, now behind enemy lines in NE
    Posts
    9,400
    Blog Entries
    1

    Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyle Cactus View Post
    I know there have been some mixed reactions to this year's draft class, but one thing I loved was the trade with the Arizona. Between that, the OBJ trade, and comp picks we've built up a pretty large collection of mid-to-late round picks for 2022.

    Trades That Affected 2022 Picks
    Vikings
    We Gave:
    Ravens 2021 3rd
    Ravens 2022 5th (conditional ... no idea what the condition is)

    We Got
    Yannick Ngakoue

    Chiefs
    We Gave:
    OBJ
    Ravens 2021 2nd
    Ravens 2022 6th

    We Got:
    Chiefs 2021 1st
    Chiefs 2021 3rd
    Chiefs 2021 4th
    Chiefs 2022 5th

    Cardinals
    We Gave:
    Chiefs 2021 4th
    Ravens 2021 6th

    We Got:
    Cardinals 2021 5th
    Cardinals 2022 4th

    Comp Picks
    We will get a 3rd round comp for David Culley being hired as Texans head coach
    We are projected to get two 4th round comp picks for Judon and Ngakoue

    Total 2022 Haul
    Since I don't know the condition on the 2022 5th we sent for Ngakoue, I'm going to assume it's still a 5th. If someone knows more about this please post in the thread and I'll update the OP.

    Ravens 1st
    Ravens 2nd
    Ravens 3rd
    Culley Comp (3rd)
    Cardinals 4th
    Ravens 4th
    Judon Comp (4th)
    Ngakoue Comp(4th)
    Chiefs 5th
    Ravens 7th
    That's a lot of fourth round picks. I think I haven't seen that many since the year we drafted Judon and Moore





  6. #6

    Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)

    Quote Originally Posted by Iamjacks View Post
    That's a lot of fourth round picks. I think I haven't seen that many since the year we drafted Judon and Moore
    EDC has made a deal at the trade deadline the last 2 seasons, I think he might ship one out before it's all said and done. Four 4ths just feels like overkill, too much developmental talent to squeeze on the roster





  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jun 2016
    Location
    Westminster OG, now behind enemy lines in NE
    Posts
    9,400
    Blog Entries
    1

    Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)

    Quote Originally Posted by sflegend89 View Post
    EDC has made a deal at the trade deadline the last 2 seasons, I think he might ship one out before it's all said and done. Four 4ths just feels like overkill, too much developmental talent to squeeze on the roster
    He's mercurial enough to do just that. But didn't the Ravens have 13 picks that year? It was nutsy.





  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    San Dimas, CA
    Posts
    15,519

    Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyle Cactus View Post
    I don't know the condition on the 2022 5th we sent for Ngakoue, I'm going to assume it's still a 5th. If someone knows more about this please post in the thread and I'll update the OP.
    The conditional 5th round pick was originally between the Jaguars and the Vikings, and the trade language meant that condition followed Ngakoue to Baltimore. The 5th round conditional would become a 4th rounder if Ngakoue made the Pro Bowl, and would become a 3rd rounder if Ngakoue made the Pro Bowl and the Vikings (or by extension, the Ravens) won the Super Bowl. So I believe the 5th rounder is all it is because the other conditions were not met.

    Here is the report from Adam Schefter at ESPN: "Minnesota acquired Ngakoue from the Jaguars this past summer for a second-round draft pick and a conditional fifth-round pick. The fifth-round pick becomes a fourth-rounder if Ngakoue goes to the Pro Bowl this season, and it turns into a third-round pick if he goes to the Pro Bowl and the Vikings win the Super Bowl.

    Those same conditions still apply to Ngakoue as a Raven, according to the language in the trade between the Jaguars and Vikings. The language in the trade agreement is not team-specific, a source told ESPN."

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...nesota-vikings





  9. #9
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Location
    Pittsburgh, PA
    Posts
    117

    Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)

    Just a reminder that the 7th round pick is conditional. If Oliver makes the roster, the pick goes to Jacksonville.

    Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk





  10. #10

    Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)

    Quote Originally Posted by bmw600 View Post
    Just a reminder that the 7th round pick is conditional. If Oliver makes the roster, the pick goes to Jacksonville.

    Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
    Good point... Which increases the likelihood that Oliver's preseason game action is limited and he is stashed for a week or 2 on the PS to avoid paying the 7th rounder. That supposes he isn't cut due to a lack of talent. Either way... we seem likely to keep the 7th rounder in order to trade it later. lol





  11. #11

    Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)

    Quote Originally Posted by Iamjacks View Post
    That's a lot of fourth round picks. I think I haven't seen that many since the year we drafted Judon and Moore
    Judon was a 5th rounder, but it was the same year we had 5 4th rounders.

    Our 4th rounders
    Tavon Young
    Chris Moore
    Alex Lewis
    Willie Henry
    Kenneth Dixon





  12. #12
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Brit living in Australia
    Posts
    14,149
    Blog Entries
    4

    Re: 2022 Draft Picks (Trades, Comps, etc...)

    Quote Originally Posted by Jesse Stovall View Post
    Good point... Which increases the likelihood that Oliver's preseason game action is limited and he is stashed for a week or 2 on the PS to avoid paying the 7th rounder. That supposes he isn't cut due to a lack of talent. Either way... we seem likely to keep the 7th rounder in order to trade it later. lol
    Idk I wanna see what Olivers got. He was a good prospect 2 years ago and may have been productive of it wasn't for back to back season ending injuries. He's a bit of a long shot but I wanna see what he can do in the pre season... best case scenario he replaces what Hurst did for us in 2019.





Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Link To Mobile Site