1st Pick: your fantasy, fear, vs. final reality

**Shas** · 04-20-2021, 08:03 AM

Originally Posted by GOTA

I actually see some of the 2nd tier OL as being guys I'd be more interested in but I'm not sure if they make it to us in round 2. Alex Leatherwood, Creed Humphrey, Liam Eichenberg and Spencer Brown would all be good picks in round 2. Then there are the guys with medical issues, Wyatt Davis and Landon Dickenson who I'd be very happy with if the Ravens took them. They wouldn't be on the board if the medical didn't check out so if they're picked then I'm assuming it's all good.

There are so many offensive lineman in this draft that I'm good waiting until round 2 to get one.

Yeah, for sure, I like all those names. But I'm clearer that Jenkins is superior. So if he's not there at 27 (and I don't think he gets past Jax and Pitt) then I'm cool with picking from the next group.

I posted this elsewhere on the mock discussion thread, but I assembled a spreadsheet of the top 75 or so OL prospects, sorted by their consensus, overall rankings (which is aggregated from all the top mocks), and then added columns for where PFN and The Athletic project them to go. I plan on tracking my above assumptions as the draft marches on.

So I feel like I have clarity on the OL values. But the differences between first and second round receivers is much less clear to me. Hell, I think Josh Palmer all the way down in the fourth round won't be much less of a player than many of these guys. Same story for the aforementioned edge rushers.

In short, let's say Jenkins, Phillips, and Bateman are there at 27. Me? I have Jenkins rated higher because I think he's that much more superior to, say, Leatherwood, whereas I don't see that delta for Phillips and Bateman (or Oweh and Marshall...take your pick).

**Shas** · 04-20-2021, 08:06 AM

Originally Posted by Valhain

1. Phillips
2. Phillips
3. Phillips

You're the only one so far to project the actual pick to be the guy you most want. However, you also chose him as the guy you most want to avoid, so I think I need to throw out your ballot.

**edromeo** · 04-20-2021, 11:30 AM

Christian Barmore
Zaven Collins
Jayson Oweh

**Valhain** · 04-20-2021, 12:31 PM

Originally Posted by Shas

Yeah, for sure, I like all those names. But I'm clearer that Jenkins is superior. So if he's not there at 27 (and I don't think he gets past Jax and Pitt) then I'm cool with picking from the next group.

I posted this elsewhere on the mock discussion thread, but I assembled a spreadsheet of the top 75 or so OL prospects, sorted by their consensus, overall rankings (which is aggregated from all the top mocks), and then added columns for where PFN and The Athletic project them to go. I plan on tracking my above assumptions as the draft marches on.

So I feel like I have clarity on the OL values. But the differences between first and second round receivers is much less clear to me. Hell, I think Josh Palmer all the way down in the fourth round won't be much less of a player than many of these guys. Same story for the aforementioned edge rushers.

In short, let's say Jenkins, Phillips, and Bateman are there at 27. Me? I have Jenkins rated higher because I think he's that much more superior to, say, Leatherwood, whereas I don't see that delta for Phillips and Bateman (or Oweh and Marshall...take your pick).

Oh, shame, lol!
Let me explain.

1. Phillips - I'm hoping he's there at 27 AND his medicals check
2. Phillips - I fear they might take him EVEN IF his medicals check (because he could still be two concussions away from retiring for good)
3. Phillips - I think he is as talented as any other pass rusher in this class (high ceiling) and more developed than most (high floor). And the best chance the Ravens might have to draft a Day 1 pass rush starter IF his medicals check.

**Shas** · 04-20-2021, 12:57 PM

Originally Posted by Valhain

Oh, shame, lol!
Let me explain.

1. Phillips - I'm hoping he's there at 27 AND his medicals check
2. Phillips - I fear they might take him EVEN IF his medicals check (because he could still be two concussions away from retiring for good)
3. Phillips - I think he is as talented as any other pass rusher in this class (high ceiling) and more developed than most (high floor). And the best chance the Ravens might have to draft a Day 1 pass rush starter IF his medicals check.

I think you meant to quote this from me...

Originally Posted by Shas

You're the only one so far to project the actual pick to be the guy you most want. However, you also chose him as the guy you most want to avoid, so I think I need to throw out your ballot.

I think I get it. You really want Phillips and hope he's got a good-enough medical report to clear him to be drafted. But you fear he might not hold up, and could become Sergio Kindle. But you think they will draft him anyway.

**Valhain** · 04-20-2021, 01:03 PM

Originally Posted by Shas

I think you meant to quote this from me...

I think I get it. You really want Phillips and hope he's got good enough medical. But you're afraid he might not, and could become Sergio Kindle. But you think they will draft him anyway.

Oh yes, sorry. Clicked the wrong post.

Yeah, that's basically it. Pass rush is right now the most pressing need and I want him, but even if his medicals are ok, concussions are a nasty thing. I know of quite a few rugby players whose careers end up being a series of concussions to the point where they spend more time out of the field than playing. That gives me the creeps no end. The question is how much that scares EDC.

**HanktheRIPPER** · 04-20-2021, 05:35 PM

Fear a WR pick
Who I want- best DL or rusher
What I think will happen- trade back for more picks

**ravensfan7716** · 04-20-2021, 07:20 PM

1. TE Kyle Pitts. (Fantasy not reality right?) Best player in the draft from an offensive perspective not a QB.
2. OLB Jason Oweh. Looks the part but 1st rounder on guy with no sacks is big risk. Boom or bust and too risky
3. C Landon Dickerson

**edromeo** · 04-21-2021, 01:40 PM

In reality I think the Eric trades down from 27

**BcRaven** · 04-21-2021, 02:22 PM

Originally Posted by edromeo

In reality I think the Eric trades down from 27

I think so too, but this is a "1st Pick: your fantasy, fear, vs. final reality" thread, so...

(1) TE Kyle Pitts (Fantasy) Never gonna happen, but would team up with Andrews to make an awesome one-two punch @ TE.

(2) OLB Jason Oweh (Fear) It's not that I don't like him, just not in the 1st round.

(3) S Trevon Moehrig (Reality) EDC did not want to draft a Safety in the 1st round, but when all attempts to make a trade fell through, he took the BPA on the Ravens board. Drafting the best Safety of the bunch is not so bad.

... Bc

**Shas** · 04-21-2021, 04:34 PM

Not that it particularly matters, but in my mind when I asked for final reality, I was hoping people would indicate a player, regardless of whether they get their first player at 27 or 37. For those who are thinking trade back, which is totally possible, I agree, I'd like to hear who you think they will be taking with their first pick, still.