Justin Houston to visit Ravens

**Mark** · 04-21-2021, 04:26 PM

Originally Posted by The Wizard of OZ

Yeah pick swapping doesn't help us in a Brown trade because IMO we would need to draft two tackles (unless you trust Phillips to have taken many steps up) and then hope like hell one of them doesn't have to step in due to some possible set back with Ronnie. I wouldn't like Lamar's chances for a great season with two rookie tackles out of the gate. One I can see, but two? Not to mention we still need to add someone on the interior, preferably at C.

I would say it depends how high is the pick we are getting in the swap. EDC could take a top 15 pick pick, trade down later in the first and add another 2nd day pick.

**Rygar64** · 04-21-2021, 04:51 PM

Originally Posted by leachisabeast

Still no deal with the Colts?

Was looking for an update as well Leach. This turned into a draft day trade and evaluation discussion. I think there are exactly 2 weeks left before the comp pick embargo period ends, so I guess Indy could still put an offer on the table and remove Houston as an option.

**Greg** · 04-21-2021, 04:58 PM

Originally Posted by Rygar64

Was looking for an update as well Leach. This turned into a draft day trade and evaluation discussion. I think there are exactly 2 weeks left before the comp pick embargo period ends, so I guess Indy could still put an offer on the table and remove Houston as an option.

Why the wait?

Houston knows our offer and what the Colts have to offer. The only reasons a deal isn't done yet is either both offers are not what he is looking for or he is taking ours and was asked to wait until 5/3. If he were going to sign with the Irsays I don't see why it isn't done unless he is pushing them for a better offer. And if so, they likely would have already made it if they were going to. The Irsays waiting does nothing for them.

**ursula** · 04-21-2021, 05:03 PM

Late to the game here but there's just no way the Chargers are gonna swap or trade pick 14. OBJ is not worth that. If either Sewell or Slater are on the board at that point they will pick them since they offer better value than OBJ. If Sewell in particular drops then they trade up for him. If neither is available they draft CB or trade down for Christian Darrisaw or maybe Teven Jenkins.

The Ravens just won't get a 1st round pick in any way for OBJ.

**TDL1000** · 04-21-2021, 08:49 PM

Originally Posted by Mark

I would say it depends how high is the pick we are getting in the swap. EDC could take a top 15 pick pick, trade down later in the first and add another 2nd day pick.

So they would do a pick swap with Brown and their own first round pick to say the Vikings at 14 so they could trade back down into the 20's and acquire an extra second round pick?
Not following the logic of giving up their own first in pick at 27 to acquire an extra #2. They could essentially accomplish the same thing by just trading Brown for a #2.
(What I posted about a Chicago trade for Brown was just a rumor that I heard multiple Bear fans repeat that they.had heard it. No substantiating just net chatter)

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**jonboy79** · 04-21-2021, 09:36 PM

Originally Posted by TDL1000

So they would do a pick swap with Brown and their own first round pick to say the Vikings at 14 so they could trade back down into the 20's and acquire an extra second round pick?
Not following the logic of giving up their own first in pick at 27 to acquire an extra #2. They could essentially accomplish the same thing by just trading Brown for a #2.
(What I posted about a Chicago trade for Brown was just a rumor that I heard multiple Bear fans repeat that they.had heard it. No substantiating just net chatter)

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No idea. I have seen the idea repeatedly on the OBJ trade thread. This board is completely obsessed with trading down. Might as well just try and get e entire 6th round...

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**BcRaven** · 04-21-2021, 10:12 PM

Houston may be mulling over offers because he's got some time until the NFL Draft.
EDC might figure that it's less than 2 weeks to May 3rd.

The Irresistible Force vs. the Immovable Object (?)

Perhaps... Bc

**Mark** · 04-21-2021, 10:24 PM

Originally Posted by TDL1000

So they would do a pick swap with Brown and their own first round pick to say the Vikings at 14 so they could trade back down into the 20's and acquire an extra second round pick?
Not following the logic of giving up their own first in pick at 27 to acquire an extra #2. They could essentially accomplish the same thing by just trading Brown for a #2.
(What I posted about a Chicago trade for Brown was just a rumor that I heard multiple Bear fans repeat that they.had heard it. No substantiating just net chatter)

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I was unclear that I always assumed any Brown trade would have to include more coming to the Ravens than just flipping 1st round picks. My point was that flipping !st rounders as a piece of the a deal might make sense if the rest of the compensation was acceptable to EDC.

**BcRaven** · 04-22-2021, 08:36 AM

Originally Posted by Mark

I was unclear that I always assumed any Brown trade would have to include more coming to the Ravens than just flipping 1st round picks. My point was that flipping !st rounders as a piece of the a deal might make sense if the rest of the compensation was acceptable to EDC.

Mark, I agree. If some team offered to swap places in the 1st, where the Ravens would move up 7 to 10 spots, and offer say their 3rd, I'd sure consider it. Although, I must say that I'd rather get two picks flat-out, but as you stated the trade must be sufficient for EDC... Bc

**Shas** · 04-22-2021, 09:19 AM

Originally Posted by RavensFanMania

swapping picks in the 1st round wouldn't give us the value of a 1st round pick if we were to trade OB

Correct. Swapping 27 and OBj for 14 is the equivalent of getting a mid-second round pick for him.

You have to start by asking what your minimum asking price is for him?

You know you can wait and get a year of service from him (barring injury), plus a nice comp pick, probably a third, in 2023.

So you have to weigh how much value you need to give up that utility and value you know you can already get out of him.

I've been saying my minimum need is a pick in the bottom third of he first round.

Originally Posted by Doctor

A clarifying point:

I'm not swapping if it involves #27...I'd swap #14 for #58 (then trade back from #14).

Originally Posted by TDL1000

If Brown were to be counted as the 22nd pick in round one and added it together with pick #58 on the trade value chart it would worth 1100 points which is exactly what the 14th picks worth.

Correct, again. It depends on what value chart you use. The value chart I refer to at ironically puts the value at #27. That would mean they could stay put, or trade him for what amounts to having two #27 picks.

Originally Posted by TDL1000

So they would do a pick swap with Brown and their own first round pick to say the Vikings at 14 so they could trade back down into the 20's and acquire an extra second round pick?
Not following the logic of giving up their own first in pick at 27 to acquire an extra #2. They could essentially accomplish the same thing by just trading Brown for a #2.
(What I posted about a Chicago trade for Brown was just a rumor that I heard multiple Bear fans repeat that they.had heard it. No substantiating just net chatter)

Who knows with Rumors. 95% are bullshit I always figure.

I agree with you that swapping picks doesn't seem likely because we know they would like to add more picks and a straight swap doesn't do that, plus it means you have to replace OBj (even if they sign Alejandro Villanueva, he's 32, and you eventually need to draft a future right tackle, or gamble on Phillips being that guy).

So trading Brown for an extra second, or multiple picks, makes more sense. The issue is that you have to find a willing trade partner. If swapping picks and then trading back again is the only way to do that, so be it. Maybe it's better to swap picks to get a premium player at 14 and then trade back from 27 to get a second back (better than 58) and then have two picks in the third. You'd essentially be trading up in the first and second and adding a pick in the third through those two deals.

If I had to guess, teams would rather send multiple picks than give up a high first. While the Ravens would rather have multiple picks.

If I'm EDC, I am seeing if I can line up a draft day trade with a team like Chicago at 20, Indy at 21 or Jax at 25. My target would be Teven Jenkins. If he's on the board still when those teams pick, I'm flipping OBj and then making Jenkins the pick. Why wouldn't those teams just take Jenkins? Because he's a right tackle and they need left tackles, which OBj would solve for them.

So you'd have a a young, cheap, plug and play solution at right tackle for five years, and still have pick #27 to make another pick, or trade back.

**TDL1000** · 04-22-2021, 11:41 AM

Originally Posted by Shas

Correct. Swapping 27 and OBj for 14 is the equivalent of getting a mid-second round pick for him.

You have to start by asking what your minimum asking price is for him?

You know you can wait and get a year of service from him (barring injury), plus a nice comp pick, probably a third, in 2023.

So you have to weigh how much value you need to give up that utility and value you know you can already get out of him.

I've been saying my minimum need is a pick in the bottom third of he first round.

Correct, again. It depends on what value chart you use. The value chart I refer to at ironically puts the value at #27. That would mean they could stay put, or trade him for what amounts to having two #27 picks.

Who knows with Rumors. 95% are bullshit I always figure.

I agree with you that swapping picks doesn't seem likely because we know they would like to add more picks and a straight swap doesn't do that, plus it means you have to replace OBj (even if they sign Alejandro Villanueva, he's 32, and you eventually need to draft a future right tackle, or gamble on Phillips being that guy).

So trading Brown for an extra second, or multiple picks, makes more sense. The issue is that you have to find a willing trade partner. If swapping picks and then trading back again is the only way to do that, so be it. Maybe it's better to swap picks to get a premium player at 14 and then trade back from 27 to get a second back (better than 58) and then have two picks in the third. You'd essentially be trading up in the first and second and adding a pick in the third through those two deals.

If I had to guess, teams would rather send multiple picks than give up a high first. While the Ravens would rather have multiple picks.

If I'm EDC, I am seeing if I can line up a draft day trade with a team like Chicago at 20, Indy at 21 or Jax at 25. My target would be Teven Jenkins. If he's on the board still when those teams pick, I'm flipping OBj and then making Jenkins the pick. Why wouldn't those teams just take Jenkins? Because he's a right tackle and they need left tackles, which OBj would solve for them.

So you'd have a a young, cheap, plug and play solution at right tackle for five years, and still have pick #27 to make another pick, or trade back.

That is exactly where my minds at in regards to Jenkins. Rather than deal off Brown for a number one then upgrade elsewhere like WR or Edge with the pick if Jenkins were available I would rather them fill that hole immediately with him.
Use the 27th pick for WR or Edge unless they decide to trade down. Upgrading the OL is such a priority in my mind even if they did that deal and drafted Jenkins I wouldn't mind them using a #2 for Dickerson. That would be a nasty line in front of LJ.

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