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  1. #49
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    Re: The comp pick formula/strategy going forward

    Quote Originally Posted by BcRaven View Post
    Those would be coming in 2022, right? ... Bc
    Correct.

    Add Chris Moore to the losses. His contract may contribute to the +/- formula. Basically gives the Ravens a free pass to sign a small depth deal.
    Official Rashod Bateman Apologist





  2. #50
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    Mar 2012
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    Re: The comp pick formula/strategy going forward

    There's a terrific thread on Twitter explaining exactly where we stand in the Comp game right now.

    Better than I thought.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/HCDVan/st...57929800220674





  3. #51

    Re: The comp pick formula/strategy going forward

    The criticism I'm starting to have with this comp pick obsession is how much are you limiting your FA acquisitions by chasing comp picks so aggressively? By really only focusing on cuts?

    At what point does the gap between the true UFA's and the cuts not become worth it in order to make sure you get your comp picks? Are you talking yourself out some of the guys that could legitimately make the biggest impacts and help us get to a SB because they would negate your comp picks?

    It's a discussion that really needs to be had. I really like Zeitler and I think he checks all the boxes at RG, so it's great that he won't count against us.... but if we continue this FA cycle only looking at cuts, how much are we short changing ourselves in terms of quality additions just to make sure we win the numbers game with the comp picks?

    I think it needs to be a balance between playing the comp game and just flat out signing the best players possible that fit your needs/scheme. Hopefully we see some of the latter in the next couple days





  4. #52
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    Mar 2012
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    Re: The comp pick formula/strategy going forward

    I think if you're talking an enormous disparity between players, then yes, disregarding the impact of the compensatory formula can be the correct move.

    Having said that, when options are available, and players are close as far as skill set and value, potential Comp picks become very much a part of the conversation.

    If my only choices are Corey Linsley or Gino Gradkowski, then yeah, it's an easy decision.

    But Joe Thuney (a great Guard) at $16 Million per versus Kevin Zeitler (a very good Guard) at $7 Million PLUS a pick which has the potential to net the team the NEXT Mark Andrews, or the NEXT Orlando Brown Jr? Then it becomes a situation where NOT considering the impact to the Compensatory formula is doing your roster and the future of the franchise a disservice.

    For instance, moving forward in this FA period, I'd MUCH rather sign Emmanuel Sanders and retain the Comp picks we're likely to get than go get Marvin Jones and lose one of them. I think Marvin Jones is a slightly better player, and slightly younger, and maybe a little bit better fit for what we are hoping for out of a potential FA WR...but Sanders will be cheaper (allowing us to maybe get an additional FA like Bowser or Derek Wolfe), AND we get another rookie from the top half of the draft a year from now, and the more chances you give yourself, the more likely it is that you strike gold.

    Comp picks are important.

    They're not the only consideration...but they should definitely be considered.





  5. #53

    Re: The comp pick formula/strategy going forward

    Quote Originally Posted by Doctor View Post
    For instance, moving forward in this FA period, I'd MUCH rather sign Emmanuel Sanders and retain the Comp picks we're likely to get than go get Marvin Jones and lose one of them. I think Marvin Jones is a slightly better player, and slightly younger, and maybe a little bit better fit for what we are hoping for out of a potential FA WR...but Sanders will be cheaper (allowing us to maybe get an additional FA like Bowser or Derek Wolfe), AND we get another rookie from the top half of the draft a year from now, and the more chances you give yourself, the more likely it is that you strike gold.

    Comp picks are important.

    They're not the only consideration...but they should definitely be considered.
    Yeah, see I would rather go for JuJu, Samuel, or Marvin Jones and potentially offset Yannick's deal. To me there is a sizeable gap between them and an Emmanuel Sanders or Golden Tate who got cut. That gap shows up in the playoffs when things get tight and you need your best players to make a play. When you're all-in to win a Super Bowl you don't cut corners so you can squeeze out an extra mid round pick. But if we miss out on the high end WR's left then I think it makes sense to consider the cuts first.

    I'm all for playing the comp numbers game when it makes sense, like with Zeitler for instance. But don't cheap out at WR over a damn comp pick when we're trying to make a push for a SB. The cuts available at some positions just frankly aren't very good in comparison to the true UFA's. So unless you want to bypass that by making a trade (Like they did with Calais), just spend the damn money on the better player.

    Those Culley picks were an absolute gift, that's house money. We already got a PAIR of 3rd round comps that we were beyond fortunate to get. So let's strike while the iron is hot and try to move the needle with a big-ish acquisition.

    Those 3rd/4th round comps are so damn late in the round. I just find them to be overrated and the board to be pretty thoroughly picked over by that point, the guys you think will be there are almost never still there. Even best case scenario (3rd round comp awarded) you're getting more of an early 4th round player than a true 3rd round player as the comps begin after the 32 original selections of the round. That's not to say you can't strike gold on them, but I just find them a bit overrated due to being backlogged after the original selections.

    If we truly defined a round as 32 picks, a 3rd round comp pick is actually an early 4th and a 4th round comp is an early 5th. The NFL just chooses to define the rounds to include all the backlogged picks regardless of how many selections were made prior.
    Last edited by sflegend89; 03-16-2021 at 06:11 AM.





  6. #54

    Re: The comp pick formula/strategy going forward

    Quote Originally Posted by sflegend89 View Post
    The criticism I'm starting to have with this comp pick obsession is how much are you limiting your FA acquisitions by chasing comp picks so aggressively? By really only focusing on cuts?

    At what point does the gap between the true UFA's and the cuts not become worth it in order to make sure you get your comp picks? Are you talking yourself out some of the guys that could legitimately make the biggest impacts and help us get to a SB because they would negate your comp picks?

    It's a discussion that really needs to be had. I really like Zeitler and I think he checks all the boxes at RG, so it's great that he won't count against us.... but if we continue this FA cycle only looking at cuts, how much are we short changing ourselves in terms of quality additions just to make sure we win the numbers game with the comp picks?

    I think it needs to be a balance between playing the comp game and just flat out signing the best players possible that fit your needs/scheme. Hopefully we see some of the latter in the next couple days
    If the Ravens had money to burn (good one, huh?) we may see a different approach (somehow I doubt it) but with a tight cap space, letting the steam go off with the first wave of FA contracts is probably the best strategy here and one the Ravens have always followed anyway. Plenty of teams will run out of money soon and others are still over the cap so cuts will be made today and tomorrow. The list of available players still looks pretty interesting and there won't be many places where they could find a roster spot; buyer's market.





  7. #55
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Location
    South Florida
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    47,520
    Blog Entries
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    Re: The comp pick formula/strategy going forward

    Quote Originally Posted by Doctor View Post
    I think if you're talking an enormous disparity between players, then yes, disregarding the impact of the compensatory formula can be the correct move.

    Having said that, when options are available, and players are close as far as skill set and value, potential Comp picks become very much a part of the conversation.

    If my only choices are Corey Linsley or Gino Gradkowski, then yeah, it's an easy decision.

    But Joe Thuney (a great Guard) at $16 Million per versus Kevin Zeitler (a very good Guard) at $7 Million PLUS a pick which has the potential to net the team the NEXT Mark Andrews, or the NEXT Orlando Brown Jr? Then it becomes a situation where NOT considering the impact to the Compensatory formula is doing your roster and the future of the franchise a disservice.

    For instance, moving forward in this FA period, I'd MUCH rather sign Emmanuel Sanders and retain the Comp picks we're likely to get than go get Marvin Jones and lose one of them. I think Marvin Jones is a slightly better player, and slightly younger, and maybe a little bit better fit for what we are hoping for out of a potential FA WR...but Sanders will be cheaper (allowing us to maybe get an additional FA like Bowser or Derek Wolfe), AND we get another rookie from the top half of the draft a year from now, and the more chances you give yourself, the more likely it is that you strike gold.

    Comp picks are important.

    They're not the only consideration...but they should definitely be considered.
    well stated, those picks turn into young cheap (valuable) pieces and in some cases, they turn into stars
    World Domination 3 Points at a Time!





  8. #56

    Re: The comp pick formula/strategy going forward

    How much are these late 3rd round comp picks even helping the team to be this worried about it every offseason?

    We are in win now mode. Go out and sign who we need and donít fucking worry about a comp pick.

    We arenít rebuilding where comp picks will help and never package these picks together to move up in the draft.

    We have this year to win a super bow before a couple contracts on this team skyrocket and wonít have this good of a chance in many years.

    Fuck the comp picks.





  9. #57

    Re: The comp pick formula/strategy going forward

    Quote Originally Posted by justaloe View Post
    In the 25 year history of the Baltimore Ravens how many of their Comp pics have become great players. I'm talking Lamar Jackson, Joe Flacco great. The answer is none. Ok, how many have become Torrey Smith, Chris McCallister, Jimmy Smith good? I can't think of any but perhaps I'm missing someone. So that's no great player and no even really good players so far(my opinion)

    I just checked a list of all of the Ravens Comp pics in their history and surprise surprise most weren't even guys who contributed much at all. Obviously my opinion is subjective and the Ravens have gotten better at picking players since 2008 but their is no guarantee that stock piling a lot of pics will get you to a Superbowl or even a good record. The Ravens have never had a Pro Bowl player drafted after the 3 round who wasn't either a FB or a special team player and no 1st team All-Pro players drafted after the 1st round except Adalius Thomas.

    The Ravens have won 2 playoff games since 2013 and they've had the most comp pics in the NFL. They've only been good the last 3 years because of Lamar Jackson. My point is that no one expects the team to spend big in Free agency every year but this team is making a big mistake by not identified someone in Free Agency every 5 years or so who they think can put them over the top and get them to at least an AFC championship game Comp pics be damned.

    https://ravenswire.usatoday.com/gall...avens-history/
    https://www.pro-football-reference.c...v/all-pros.htm
    You can't do it that way. The extra picks mean that BAL can take chances with other picks. Like maybe if they didn't have as many comp picks, they don't take Orlando Brown in the 3rd round. Etc.

    Drafting is a ton of luck (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...ency-2010-2019). Some people believe that other than the top of the draft, it's almost all luck. If that is true, then the #1 determining factor in having a successful draft is to maximize the number of chances a team has to draft. I've heard before that BAL's internal research mirrors that which is why they take every opportunity to maximize draft picks.





  10. #58

    Re: The comp pick formula/strategy going forward

    Quote Originally Posted by Doctor View Post
    There's a terrific thread on Twitter explaining exactly where we stand in the Comp game right now.

    Better than I thought.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/HCDVan/st...57929800220674
    Hey thanks for the shout out!





  11. #59

    Re: The comp pick formula/strategy going forward

    Quote Originally Posted by justaloe View Post
    In the 25 year history of the Baltimore Ravens how many of their Comp pics have become great players. I'm talking Lamar Jackson, Joe Flacco great. The answer is none. Ok, how many have become Torrey Smith, Chris McCallister, Jimmy Smith good? I can't think of any but perhaps I'm missing someone. So that's no great player and no even really good players so far(my opinion)

    I just checked a list of all of the Ravens Comp pics in their history and surprise surprise most weren't even guys who contributed much at all. Obviously my opinion is subjective and the Ravens have gotten better at picking players since 2008 but their is no guarantee that stock piling a lot of pics will get you to a Superbowl or even a good record. The Ravens have never had a Pro Bowl player drafted after the 3 round who wasn't either a FB or a special team player and no 1st team All-Pro players drafted after the 1st round except Adalius Thomas.

    The Ravens have won 2 playoff games since 2013 and they've had the most comp pics in the NFL. They've only been good the last 3 years because of Lamar Jackson. My point is that no one expects the team to spend big in Free agency every year but this team is making a big mistake by not identified someone in Free Agency every 5 years or so who they think can put them over the top and get them to at least an AFC championship game Comp pics be damned.

    https://ravenswire.usatoday.com/gall...avens-history/
    https://www.pro-football-reference.c...v/all-pros.htm
    I think that list of comp picks in the Harbaugh era is pretty darn good when you're talking primarily 4th round and higher. Lots of starting OL some TEs and some depth type/ST guys. Wagner, Jensen, Bozeman, Boyle, Juice, McPhee, Urban top the list.

    If the bar is these guys need to be Pro Bowlers, well okay. That's a high bar for 4th, 5th and 6th rounders. If the bar is to get starter level production for super cheap for 2-3 years; Rate of Return on these comp picks is good.

    Also, Judon was a 2x pro bowler drafted in round 5. Also Bart Scott was a pro bowler and a UDFA





  12. #60
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Southern California
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    1,474

    Re: The comp pick formula/strategy going forward

    Quote Originally Posted by justaloe View Post
    In the 25 year history of the Baltimore Ravens how many of their Comp pics have become great players. I'm talking Lamar Jackson, Joe Flacco great. The answer is none. Ok, how many have become Torrey Smith, Chris McCallister, Jimmy Smith good?
    You're trying to make a point about Comp picks (which begin at the end of the 3rd round), and yet named four 1st round picks and one 2nd round pick as comparison players for the barometer of success.

    Well argued.

    Edwin Mulitalo was a comp pick.
    Chester Taylor
    Ovie Mughelli
    Tony Pashos
    Sam Koch
    LeRon McClain
    Haruki Nakamura
    Pernell McPhee
    Kyle Juszcyzk
    Ricky Wagner
    Ryan Jensen
    Brent Urban
    Nick Boyle
    Maurice Canady
    Bradley Bozeman

    That's a f*****g laundry list of players who have been EXTREMELY productive members of this ball club, including several who are playing a key role on this current iteration of the squad, and (at least) two who have signed elsewhere as the highest paid player in the league at their respective positions (Jensen & Juszcyzk).

    Thanks for linking that list...you made my point for me





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