Dissension on the team?

[edromeo]

I'm all for bolstering the OL, it's my #1 offseason priority

But the WR core must be addressed, especially at X receiver, they don't have enough there to punish an 8 man box on the boundary. As long as defenses can entirely focus between the hashes, this offense has a fatal flaw. They can only play within a shrunken field between those hashes in the passing game. We saw them use Ricard in the flat against Tennessee but that's not enough, it's on the WR's to carry that burden.

Some of that is on Lamar, some of that is on the lack of boundary WR talent

To be clear, personally as a Lamar fan, I think signing a true "true #1 WR" would be great for Lamar's stats.

But first lets take a look at 2019:
Led league in passing TDs.
Tops in DVOA.
12th in YPA.
4th in 1st down%.
League MVP QB.
Lamar Jackson target accuracy #6 in the NFL

Having the "true #1" would make Lamar's Jackson (former league MVP) life easier..but looking at the overall cost required vs the impact on the team it just doesn't make sense to me when you actually look at this Ravens team. The delta between Hollywood and "true #1 WR" isn't worth the resources to acquire one, and the resources required would take away from addressing other areas of higher impact....like Pass rusher.

But what changed?

What changed on the OL: Loss of Yanda caused a hole at RG, loss of Stanley which forced Brown to LT which caused a hole at RT, inability of Skura to bounce back caused issues at C

What changed at TE: Loss of Hurst coupled with injury to Boyle, went from 3 top 30 TE (2 top 10) ---> 1 top 10 TE in Andrews and FB/DT filling in at TE and bunch of street TEs

Lamar- experienced a regression in his ability as rhythm drop back passer, his fundamentals and footwork were all over the place and he was missing reads, miss throws, and was more inaccurate. Lamar's target accuracy fell from #6 to #28. If you really want to get into the details of the decline of the passing game look at the drop in target accuracy across the board for ever receiver on the team.

The WRs have experienced the least amount of personnel change on offense from 2019 to 2020.
A WR corps of: Hollywood, Snead, Roberts, Boykin were part of the 2019 offense/passing game. Best in NFL passing game.
They lost Seth Roberts lost Seth Roberts and gained Duvernay and Proche.


When you look at 2019 and 2020 adding a top tier FA WR or "true #1 WR" doesn't seem like a solution to any of the issues.
Adding a top tier FA WR or "true #1 WR" seems like addressing a perceived schematic problem that won't change anyway because Greg Roman is still the OC. Barring an unforeseen philosophical shift there isn't any reason to believe there will be a significant increase in attempts (regardless of how much we may want it). So even if you threw in a "true #1 WR" what's going to happen with the target share? Whose targets is this other mouth going to take from? If you think Hollywood is chirping now....wait until his target share drops from the team leading 25%. Or do you want the target share reduced from Andrews plate of 25%?



Fix the OL.
Boyle stays healthy/add 3rd TE.
Allow the home drafted passing game to develop.
Allow the Tee Martin and Keith Williams a chance to work.
Allow Lamar a chance to bounce back to the passer he was in 2019 and maybe even take the next step.
Allow Hollywood, Boykin and Duvernay a chance to progress don't stunt it.
Draft a WR whenever/where ever they represent BPA.

[WNCRavensFan]

That's a big part of it. Snead and Dez both got the "they're going in another direction" speech from their agent and got salty about it. It's like when a girls breaks it off with you and you tell your friends "I didn't like her anyway"

Here's the problem - there's nothing that they said that indicates they're salty. That's a lie. False narrative. Fake news. However you want to put it.

Especially Dez, who went out of his way to counter several responders.

This is really a non issue and the more this kind of thread gains traction, the worse we look, not them.

[blah3]

Having the "true #1" would make Lamar's Jackson (former league MVP) life easier..but looking at the overall cost required vs the impact on the team it just doesn't make sense to me when you actually look at this Ravens team. The delta between Hollywood and "true #1 WR" isn't worth the resources to acquire one, and the resources required would take away from addressing other areas of higher impact....like Pass rusher.

.

The delta between brown and the receivers mentioned is not the way to look at it. Its the delta between the receivers mentioned and boykin PLUS the delta between brown and the next best wr.

[edromeo]

The delta between brown and the receivers mentioned is not the way to look at it. Its the delta between the receivers mentioned and boykin PLUS the delta between brown and the next best wr.

Is it though?

2 short years ago this passing offense was literally the best in the NFL. And at that time it was one of the lowest volume passing offenses in the NFL.

I think everyone needs to let that sink in. THIS exact same passing offense was the best in the NFL 2 years ago.

THE TALENT AT THE WRs POSITION HAS NOT DECLINED.

Fixing the "problem" in the passing game doesn't speak to the WRs.

The talk of "needing" to fix the passing game by adding a "true #1" isn't true for this passing game.
It wasn't true 2 years ago and it isn't true now.

The "need" for a "#1 WR" isn't solving an actual problem that exists on this team.

It is solving a "problem" of philosophy that exists only in fan and casual NFL/sports media perception that envision success only through the eyes of volume/counting stats.

Be that as it may, when you actually look at the passing game decline it makes sense to start where the actual decline occurred: Offensive line, the TE group and QB play.

That is the reality.

Even putting that aside, and focusing on the WRs role in the passing game independent of the all the above the principal WR in the passing game is Hollywood Brown.

He is the #1 WR on the team. Hollywood Brown is the WR that receives the "true #1" target share %.
Hollywood Brown, even in this low volume passing game, got opportunity of a "#1 WR" (25% target share). He only had 6/7 fewer targets then AJ Brown. And no one doubts AJ Brown's status as a "true #1 WR".

Looking at the role WRs play in the passing game and saying that it needs to improve starts with the Hollywood Brown.

Maybe everyone has come to conclusion that Hollywood Brown isn't/can't be a #1 WR.
I'm not ready to give up on Hollywood Brown....people need to remember that developing a passing game, especially through the draft, is process. And if a "breakout" season is gonna happen its typically in the 3rd year.

Blaming the decline of the passing game on WRs that don't get a meaningful amount of targets doesn't make sense. You mentioned Miles Boykin, but he made the most of quality targets he received.
Miles had the 2nd highest true catch rate on the team 86% the highest was Devin Duvernay 95% (mostly screens). Respectively they were 11% and 7% of the passing volume. They also had the lowest drop rates on the WRs at 3% and 4%. Btw, Miles also had the highest yard per reception of the WRs 14.0.

Again, there is no doubt that adding a "true #1 WR" will undoubted help Lamar's stats, and personally I like it because that will be great for his casual fan/media perception. But, the resources spent to solve a problem that doesn't exist takes away from resources spent to address other real Free Agency holes.

The fact of the matter is that this passing scheme is a low volume.
There is no reason to expect a significant change in the passing volume of this scheme.
And truthfully looking at the success of the Lamar led offense there is no real reason to want a significant change to the passing volume of the scheme.

With that being said count me in!
Let's bring in a "true #1 WR" via FA.
But lets be clear about what it means.
It means the resources spent to acquire that "true #1 WR" will reduce the resources available to address the other areas...Center, RG, RT (if the trade Orlando), swing OT (if they keep Orlando), Pass rusher etc.

And because of the finite targets available in this scheme; it also means there will have to be a reshuffling of the pecking order in the passing game.
For the WRs that means a change to the current leader in target share Hollywood Brown, the QB's best friend.
It also means a change for the leader in target share for the TEs: Mark Andrews.
And it means essentially giving up on the development of the low opportunity players the passing game like Miles Boykin and Devin Duvernay.

[blah3]

Is it though?

2 short years ago this passing offense was literally the best in the NFL. And at that time it was one of the lowest volume passing offenses in the NFL.

I think everyone needs to let that sink in. THIS exact same passing offense was the best in the NFL 2 years ago.

THE TALENT AT THE WRs POSITION HAS NOT DECLINED.

Fixing the "problem" in the passing game doesn't speak to the WRs.

The talk of "needing" to fix the passing game by adding a "true #1" isn't true for this passing game.
It wasn't true 2 years ago and it isn't true now.

The "need" for a "#1 WR" isn't solving an actual problem that exists on this team.

It is solving a "problem" of philosophy that exists only in fan and casual NFL/sports media perception that envision success only through the eyes of volume/counting stats.

Be that as it may, when you actually look at the passing game decline it makes sense to start where the actual decline occurred: Offensive line, the TE group and QB play.

That is the reality.

Even putting that aside, and focusing on the WRs role in the passing game independent of the all the above the principal WR in the passing game is Hollywood Brown.

He is the #1 WR on the team. Hollywood Brown is the WR that receives the "true #1" target share %.
Hollywood Brown, even in this low volume passing game, got opportunity of a "#1 WR" (25% target share). He only had 6/7 fewer targets then AJ Brown. And no one doubts AJ Brown's status as a "true #1 WR".

Looking at the role WRs play in the passing game and saying that it needs to improve starts with the Hollywood Brown.

Maybe everyone has come to conclusion that Hollywood Brown isn't/can't be a #1 WR.
I'm not ready to give up on Hollywood Brown....people need to remember that developing a passing game, especially through the draft, is process. And if a "breakout" season is gonna happen its typically in the 3rd year.

Blaming the decline of the passing game on WRs that don't get a meaningful amount of targets doesn't make sense. You mentioned Miles Boykin, but he made the most of quality targets he received.
Miles had the 2nd highest true catch rate on the team 86% the highest was Devin Duvernay 95% (mostly screens). Respectively they were 11% and 7% of the passing volume. They also had the lowest drop rates on the WRs at 3% and 4%. Btw, Miles also had the highest yard per reception of the WRs 14.0.

Again, there is no doubt that adding a "true #1 WR" will undoubted help Lamar's stats, and personally I like it because that will be great for his casual fan/media perception. But, the resources spent to solve a problem that doesn't exist takes away from resources spent to address other real Free Agency holes.

The fact of the matter is that this passing scheme is a low volume.
There is no reason to expect a significant change in the passing volume of this scheme.
And truthfully looking at the success of the Lamar led offense there is no real reason to want a significant change to the passing volume of the scheme.

With that being said count me in!
Let's bring in a "true #1 WR" via FA.
But lets be clear about what it means.
It means the resources spent to acquire that "true #1 WR" will reduce the resources available to address the other areas...Center, RG, RT (if the trade Orlando), swing OT (if they keep Orlando), Pass rusher etc.

And because of the finite targets available in this scheme; it also means there will have to be a reshuffling of the pecking order in the passing game.
For the WRs that means a change to the current leader in target share Hollywood Brown, the QB's best friend.
It also means a change for the leader in target share for the TEs: Mark Andrews.
And it means essentially giving up on the development of the low opportunity players the passing game like Miles Boykin and Devin Duvernay.

Yes it is. The problem exists no matter how much you say it doesn’t. That great offense you tout still got eliminated in the playoffs in 2019 because it was too one dimensional
Im sorry, not going To not to try an improve at WR, to not hurt the feelings of the players that managed to put up 3 points in their playoff loss.

[mmi16]

If Lamar dropped from #6 to #28 in accuracy - how were the receivers on DROPS in 2019 & 2020.

Personally I saw a bunch of drops in 2020.

[TDL1000]

If Lamar dropped from #6 to #28 in accuracy - how were the receivers on DROPS in 2019 & 2020.

Personally I saw a bunch of drops in 2020.

Hollywood and Andrew's were two of the worst. Why I'm not sold on overpaying either at this point.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk

[edromeo]

If Lamar dropped from #6 to #28 in accuracy - how were the receivers on DROPS in 2019 & 2020.

Personally I saw a bunch of drops in 2020.

Andrews-3 drops this year vs 5 in 2019
Hollywood-6 drops this year vs 4 drops in 2019
Miles-1 drop this year - 1 drop last year

But, (QB) target accuracy to receiver drops isn't a direct because most places don't count uncatchable/off target passes as drops against the receiver.

The stat that really shows the difference in service the receivers get is raw catch% vs true catch%, (receiver) target accuracy and target quality:

Advanced Stats Courtesy of:
https://www.playerprofiler.com/

Metrics	C.Davis	Brown	Andrews	Boykin	Snead	Duvernay	Boyle
Target Share	23.1%(24th)	25.2%(12th)	24.9% (3rd)	10.5%	14.2 (78th)	7.1%	7.2%
Target Rate	25% (41st)	23.1% (58th)	26.9% (35th)	14.5%	18.6% (119th)	14%	14.7%
YPRR	2.67 (4th)	1.80 (47th)	2.12 (5th)	1.17	1.67 (58th)	1.08	0.97
Catchable Target%	80.4%(74tgts)	71.7%(71tgts)	77.5%(69tgts)	66.7%(15tgts)	83.3%(40tgts)	80.8%(21tgts)	82.2%(15tgts)
Target Quality	6.5 (19th)	5.6 (59th)	5.7 (11th)	4.4	5.9 (37th)	4.7	4.8
Catch Rate	70..7%(83rd)	58.6%(83rd)	65.2%(23rd)	57.6%	68.8%(36th)	76.9%	82.4%
True Catch Rate	87.8%(78th)	81.7%(78th)	84.1%(29th)	86.4%	82.5%(75th)	95.2%	93.3%
Target Accuracy	7.28%(46th)	6.82%(86th)	7.28%(19th)	6.14%	7.40%(36th)	6.73%	7.06%
Target Separation	1.55(69th)	1.87(24th)	1.69(11th)	1.65	2.19(3rd)	1.27	1.56
Drop%	2.2%(35th)	6.1%(35th)	3.4%(30th)	3.0%	12.5%(3rd)	3.8%	0%

Target Share – measures the percentage of all passing targets directed at a particular wide receiver or tight end in games that that receiver was involved in the passing attack.

Target Rate – Ratio of total targets to total routes run by running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.

Target Quality – combines catchable targets with average target depth putting a premium on deep, catchable targets and
discounting shorter, uncatchable passes.

Catch Rate – captures a player’s ability to secure to secure the football in all situations regardless of the level of difficulty by dividing the total receptions by total targets.

True Catch Rate – reception percentage based solely on catchable targets.

Accuracy Rating– grades the accuracy each of throw on a 1-10 scale. 1-3 representing the most errand throw, 4-7 representing throws in some range of catchable but sub-optimal, and 8-10 representing the most pinpoint passes allowing receivers to convert receptions and gain yards after the catch. Quarterbacks with Accuracy Ratings above 6.0 are considered highly accurate, and those below 4.0 are considered highly inaccurate.

Target Separation – A receiver’s average yards of separation from his assigned defender at the moment the pass arrives.

---

https://www.playerprofiler.com/

^^That site has all the advanced stats from the used for the chart above. (and helped put some cash in money pocket from fantasy)

[sflegend89]

Sour grapes? ... Bc

A+, well done BC

[HotInHere]

Andrews-3 drops this year vs 5 in 2019
Hollywood-6 drops this year vs 4 drops in 2019
Miles-1 drop this year - 1 drop last year

But, (QB) target accuracy to receiver drops isn't a direct because most places don't count uncatchable/off target passes as drops against the receiver.
...

Target Separation – A receiver’s average yards of separation from his assigned defender at the moment the pass arrives.

---

https://www.playerprofiler.com/

^^That site has all the advanced stats from the used for the chart above. (and helped put some cash in money pocket from fantasy)

Interesting.

Pro Football Reference has an "On Target Percentage." It shows Lamar as being almost the same in 2019 and 2020. 76% in 2019, and 75.3% in 2020.

Any idea why the discrepancy?

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...g_advanced.htm

[edromeo]

Interesting.

Pro Football Reference has an "On Target Percentage." It shows Lamar as being almost the same in 2019 and 2020. 76% in 2019, and 75.3% in 2020.

Any idea why the discrepancy?

https://www.pro-football-reference.c...g_advanced.htm

Hard to say for sure.
But, it seems like pro-football reference "on target percentage" is akin to pff's "adjusted completion percentage" in that they both filter out drops, spikes and throws aways.

Here's a look at Lamar comparing their pfr's "on target percentage" and pff's "adjusted completion percentage" for a handful of QBs.
Lamar.........2019.........2020
PFR OT%----76.0-------75.3%
PFF AC%----76.1%-----74.8%

But, neither of those stats is film based like player profiler or pff's advanced accuracy metrics.
PFF's film based accuracy rating in the their QB annual has Lamar's accuracy ranking in 2020: 31st down from 5th in 2019
Which matches up pretty close w/ player profiler.

[JimZipCode]

Yes it is. The problem exists no matter how much you say it doesn’t. That great offense you tout still got eliminated in the playoffs in 2019 because it was too one dimensional

No. It got eliminated because of spec teams penalties, turnovers, giving up 200 yds to Derrick Henry, 7 drops, and a couple failed 4th-&-1s.

Im sorry, not going To not to try an improve at WR

I'm fine with trying to improve every position group on the team.

But it's retarded not to treat iOL as the priority on offence. This is now three consecutive postseasons of the OL getting dominated by the opposing defense. That should be a call to action.