Peter King's Proposed Trade ~ WTF?

[QtR Nevermore]

Wow. Let's pull that thread. Your defense is markedly worse without your two best pass defenders at level 2 and level 3, and you have a huge hole in the middle of the field.

I was using actual Ravens players to try to remove the mystique of First Round Picks from the discussion but OK. In this hypothetical obviously Humphrey would be the biggest loss.

A huge hole in the middle of the field? The ILB play would have been better without Queen because Fort would have got 90% of the snaps instead and the improved pass coverage at that position would almost make up for the loss of Bowser's coverage.

You also don't have JK Dobbins (who you got for Hurst) or any wide receivers.

Dobbins would be missed but they'd still have Gus and I'm confident the Ravens could have found some decent production from a UDFA or a cheap Free Agent RB, as they did many times previously.

By any wide receivers you mean no Hollywood? Well, there would be an extra second rounder and if Hollywood was off the board the Ravens might have been forced to draft Metcalf or McLaurin instead. Who knows? It might actually have turned out to be an upgrade.

It's very doubtful that we made the playoffs last year.

Clearly all these scenarios where the Ravens don't draft Lamar cheaply are going to be worse than the current situation. These are What-if-the-Ravens-didn't-have-Lamar/ needed a QB scenarios.

And you go into this offseason with Peters and Jimmy Smith as your starting CBs, so you definitely need one of those. You pretty much have to bring Judon back since you don't have the potential cheaper/younger option in Bowser. So you're going to way overpay him for way too long.

No Bowser forces the Ravens to re-sign Judon? Why? And you're using the no-Marlon argument twice. Remember, there would be one more second rounder at one of those positions in this hypothetical, so while things would be worse at one of these spots, it might not be disastrous.

You still have all the same holes on the o-line we keep talking about -- C, RG, and very soon, RT.

Future needs are no different here. In this hypothetical, the Ravens would have just as many picks going forward.

So how would Deshaun Watson would do with no one to throw to, a bad running game, and a porous o-line? Fortunately, we don't have to guess. The answer is 4-12.

Even without those high picks, the Ravens would still have a better roster than the 2020 Texans. Watson would be behind the 2020 Ravens line with Gus and AN Other at RB with the 2020 Ravens receiving group minus Hollywood (but plus a second round WR from the same draft).

Really what I'm saying is that the Watson plus 2 second rounders would be better than Flacco + Marlon + Bowser + Hollywood + Queen + Dobbins and that's before you consider that the Ravens wouldn't actually have all these players, because they would have tried out other QBs.

[Shas]

That's a shit ton of value in terms of players and picks. You are taking on the highest paid player in the league and giving away your ability to surround him with affordable, high quality talent. Garappolo alone is gets paid in the same neighborhood. So I can't even figure out the cap ramifications for all teams involved. It doesn't sound good.

[Shas]

I always get the sense that King has drank the Kool-aid from whomever the last source he spoke to, and will write 10,000 words on the passing comments, hopes and dreams of whoever he is interviewing. So he will come away from a training camp all too eager to declare that team Super Bowl contenders, for instance, based on fresh observations.

[mmi16]

No one is worth more than four firsts and a second.

That kind of thinking is what gets teams in trouble (cf the Herschel Walker trade).

I don't think ANYONE is worth 4 Firsts.

[xiao_ke]

I always get the sense that King has drank the Kool-aid from whomever the last source he spoke to, and will write 10,000 words on the passing comments, hopes and dreams of whoever he is interviewing. So he will come away from a training camp all too eager to declare that team Super Bowl contenders, for instance, based on fresh observations.

This is a spot on observation about King. I don't read him anymore, but when he was authoring MMQB, he always had nothing but praise for the team and players he talked to right before writing his weekly column.

[Greg]

I don't think ANYONE is worth 4 Firsts.

If you could go back to 2002 and trade 4 firsts for Brady then would you?

Of course this is with hindsight and that player is VERY rare and predicting who will become a Brady or Ray Lewis on the other side is chancy. But a player early on in a career that can blossom into something very special for a long time can be worth a lot of draft value.

Watson is one of the few who has the time left and has the resume that says he can play like that (good chance). Still, 4 firsts? For the Ravens these are near high second round picks, for other teams perpetual tops 10s. It's different for each team.

[WNCRavensFan]

If you could go back to 2002 and trade 4 firsts for Brady then would you?

Of course this is with hindsight and that player is VERY rare and predicting who will become a Brady or Ray Lewis on the other side is chancy. But a player early on in a career that can blossom into something very special for a long time can be worth a lot of draft value.

Watson is one of the few who has the time left and has the resume that says he can play like that (good chance). Still, 4 firsts? For the Ravens these are near high second round picks, for other teams perpetual tops 10s. It's different for each team.

Since we're using hindsight

The Ravens next four first round picks beginning in 2003 were:

Terrell Suggs
Kyle Boller
Mark Clayton
Haloti Ngata

The benefit of hindsight changes everything. I would make that trade and deal with a worse defense.

[BcRaven]

Since we're using hindsight

The Ravens next four first round picks beginning in 2003 were:

Terrell Suggs
Kyle Boller
Mark Clayton
Haloti Ngata

The benefit of hindsight changes everything. I would make that trade and deal with a worse defense.

WNCR, IIRC your list in not exactly correct. The Ravens traded up (with the Patriots) in 2003 to draft Boller. Therefore, (2003) Suggs, (2004) N.E. used our pick on Vince Wilfork, (2005) Mark Clayton, (2006) Haloti Ngata. The reason I think Ozzie would have drafted Wilfork is that he used our first pick (2nd round) on Dwan Edwards who was also a DT. If so, in this Fantasy Land, that sheds a whole new light on the four 1sts we'd have had to give up... Bc

[QtR Nevermore]

Since we're using hindsight

The Ravens next four first round picks beginning in 2003 were:

Terrell Suggs
Kyle Boller
Mark Clayton
Haloti Ngata

The benefit of hindsight changes everything. I would make that trade and deal with a worse defense.

Not just hindsight. Almost any group of 4 first rounders you pick out, from almost any team, will be a mixed bag of good and bad, great if you're lucky and busts if you're not. From 4 first rounders, 3 good position players is the very most you can expect, so when people say a Top 5 QB definitely isn't worth that trade, I question it. I think the mystique of First Round Picks is messing with their perceptions.

[s.r.genovese]

I always get the sense that King has drank the Kool-aid from whomever the last source he spoke to, and will write 10,000 words on the passing comments, hopes and dreams of whoever he is interviewing. So he will come away from a training camp all too eager to declare that team Super Bowl contenders, for instance, based on fresh observations.

Nailed it.

[Shas]

So, in this case, I'm led to wonder, who did King last talk to before he wrote this? John McClain? Cal McNair? David Mulugheta of Athletes First? (Watson's agent, and same agency that represents Orlando Brown Jr.).

I'm guessing he wasn't talking to someone with ties to the Forty-Niners, for instance, when he "imagined" this trade.