Salvaging value when 1st round QB picks go wrong

**Shas** · 02-20-2021, 01:51 PM

It doesn't happen. According to SharpFootballAnalysis.com...

**Kyle Cactus** · 02-20-2021, 05:39 PM

It's probably tough to recoup the full value of a 1st at any position. If the guy is good you usually hang on to him. If not, who is going to pay a 1st to take them off your hands?

It might be a bit more drastic at QB though. QB is so important that teams are more willing to use a 1st on players that are just mediocre talents.

**BcRaven** · 02-20-2021, 06:56 PM

Originally Posted by Kyle Cactus

It's probably tough to recoup the full value of a 1st at any position. If the guy is good you usually hang on to him. If not, who is going to pay a 1st to take them off your hands?

It might be a bit more drastic at QB though. QB is so important that teams are more willing to use a 1st on players that are just mediocre talents.

True, in this mock from NFL.com (Daniel Jeremiah) there are 5 QBs taken in the 1st round. 4 of them in the first 8 picks!

Just in case you were curious, he has the Ravens drafting Trevon Moehrig (Safety from TCU),
" The Ravens have other needs to address, but the reason they're so successful is because they draft the best player available. In this case, Moehrig fits the bill. He joins an extremely talented secondary. "

... Bc

**Ortizer** · 02-21-2021, 10:59 AM

Originally Posted by BcRaven

True, in this mock from NFL.com (Daniel Jeremiah) there are 5 QBs taken in the 1st round. 4 of them in the first 8 picks!

Just in case you were curious, he has the Ravens drafting Trevon Moehrig (Safety from TCU),
" The Ravens have other needs to address, but the reason they're so successful is because they draft the best player available. In this case, Moehrig fits the bill. He joins an extremely talented secondary. "

... Bc

I'm okay with that entire scenario

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**GOTA** · 02-21-2021, 11:08 AM

It’s the same when a team pays big money in free agency for a QB and it doesn’t work. The Panthers are in that situation with Bridgewater. The Jaguars took whatever they could get for Foles. The problem with quarterbacks is if it doesn’t work out and they need to be benched they can quickly become an anchor for your team. You better be willing to play them once you commit serious cap space.

**Shas** · 02-21-2021, 11:55 AM

Originally Posted by BcRaven

(Daniel Jeremiah)... has the Ravens drafting Trevon Moehrig (Safety from TCU)..."The Ravens have other needs to address, but the reason they're so successful is because they draft the best player available. In this case, Moehrig fits the bill. He joins an extremely talented secondary."

The Athletic puts out a very entertain column called, "AFC North Whiparound" where they pose the same set of questions to each of their four beat writers for the four teams in the division.

One of the questions this week is, "It’s not hard to find a list of offseason needs for each NFL team. Just looking at your respective team, is there a need that is either being exaggerated or downplayed?"

Jeff Zrebiec wrote

The Ravens’ needs at wide receiver, offensive line and outside linebacker are well-documented and legitimate. There’s not been a ton of talk about how much they could use a playmaking safety, but I think the team recognizes that piece could take their defense to another level. Chuck Clark and DeShon Elliott were a solid safety duo in 2020 and they’re both still under contract. Yet, both of them struggle at times in coverage and haven’t shown a consistent ability to create turnovers or get their hands on the football. The addition of a rangy, ball-hawking safety would give defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale more options. Plus, the Ravens have no depth behind Clark and Elliott and Elliott is a free agent next year, so to me, acquiring another safety is closer to a necessity than a luxury.

He has a point. I mean, who is the back up even right now? Jimmy Smith? Nigel Warrior? They may not resign back up safety and special teams stalwart Anthony Levine. Having a quality coverage safety makes a lot of sense given how much dime they like to play and the fragility of their corners (Young, Averett, Smith, Marshall).

Moehrig's style of play is along the lines of an Ed Reed or Earl Thomas type...an athletic ballhawk who relies on instinct and can get burned guessing at times. He's a guy I'd be happy to trade back for into the thirties if it means getting an extra pick they can also use on an interior lineman, Edge, or WR.

My guess is that he isn't the guy and they'll instead try to add depth at the position later in the draft, as they tried to do with Geno Stone. Moehrig's teammate at TCU, Ar'Darius Washington, is a coverage safety/nickel type and maybe a better value in the fourth or fifth round, for instance. There are a bunch of safeties with 2nd/3rd round grades and a couple could fall because there are only so many teams looking.

By the way, after beating around the bush excessively, here is how the other beat writers answered this question:

Kaboly, Steelers: Quarterback
Morrison, Bengals: Cornerback
Jackson, Browns: Cornerback

**JimZipCode** · 02-23-2021, 12:38 PM

Originally Posted by Shas

By the way, after beating around the bush excessively, here is how the other beat writers answered this question:

Kaboly, Steelers: Quarterback

Does Kaboly think the Steelers need at QB is being "downplayed"?

EDIT – Oh I see. He thinks Ben is not as washed as common opinion has it.
Well, maybe. But it's not like Ben's ever been an avocado smoothie guy like Brady.

**QtR Nevermore** · 02-23-2021, 12:53 PM

Originally Posted by BcRaven

True, in this mock from NFL.com (Daniel Jeremiah) there are 5 QBs taken in the 1st round. 4 of them in the first 8 picks!

Just in case you were curious, he has the Ravens drafting Trevon Moehrig (Safety from TCU),
" The Ravens have other needs to address, but the reason they're so successful is because they draft the best player available. In this case, Moehrig fits the bill. He joins an extremely talented secondary. "

... Bc

I think these mock drafter have players they've evaluated as first rounders and they just fit them into teams however they can at this stage.

The Ravens need at safety has been exaggerated because national experts see that Earl Thomas left in 2020 and they don't recognize Clark and Elliott's names. It keeps cropping up as a top need though most Ravens fans know that Interior O Line, WR and Edge are bigger needs. Safety depth is somewhere in the secondary group of needs along with TE, and younger D Line players

**Shas** · 02-23-2021, 01:10 PM

Originally Posted by QtR Nevermore

I think these mock drafter have players they've evaluated as first rounders and they just fit them into teams however they can at this stage.

The Ravens need at safety has been exaggerated because national experts see that Earl Thomas left in 2020 and they don't recognize Clark and Elliott's names. It keeps cropping up as a top need though most Ravens fans know that Interior O Line, WR and Edge are bigger needs. Safety depth is somewhere in the secondary group of needs along with TE, and younger D Line players

That was my opinion as well. Although, I figure if it comes from Jeremiah, maybe it's more valid since he knows the team more than the average mocker. Then, when I saw Zrebiec, who knows the team better than anyone, mention safety as need that has not been talked about enough, I took notice.

I still will be a bit shocked if they make safety a first round pick, but not surprised if they address it with a pick from round four onward.

**ravensfan7716** · 02-23-2021, 01:18 PM

Originally Posted by BcRaven

True, in this mock from NFL.com (Daniel Jeremiah) there are 5 QBs taken in the 1st round. 4 of them in the first 8 picks!

Just in case you were curious, he has the Ravens drafting Trevon Moehrig (Safety from TCU),
" The Ravens have other needs to address, but the reason they're so successful is because they draft the best player available. In this case, Moehrig fits the bill. He joins an extremely talented secondary. "

... Bc

Not the player I ultimately want but cannot deny he appears to be a good player. I have seen a number of mocks with him being mocked to the Ravens.

I hope there is a run on QBS but there will be a ton of movement in free agency last year and probably this year so the market might not be that weak to see a run but lets hope. The more QBS that go, the better the player slides down

**Shas** · 02-23-2021, 01:18 PM

Originally Posted by Shas

is there a need that is either being exaggerated or downplayed?"...
Kaboly, Steelers: Quarterback

Originally Posted by JimZipCode

Does Kaboly think the Steelers need at QB is being "downplayed"?
EDIT – Oh I see. He thinks Ben is not as washed as common opinion has it.
Well, maybe. But it's not like Ben's ever been an avocado smoothie guy like Brady.

Yeah, sorry, I presented the answers in a way that's very disconnected from the question. All the writers except Kaboly identified an underrated need...whereas he called QB an exaggerated need for Pitt.

He's closer to the team than most, so who am I to question his opinion, except to ask, is he too close? Has he seen too many years of good Ben coming back from adversity (and no one in the history of football has been better at projecting adversity) to take it seriously. I wonder if Ben might finally be the boy who cried wolf this time. Kaboly blames dropsy receivers and a lack of a running game. Perhaps that's true. Perhaps Ben actually can throw the ball downfield still if he had a better line stopping rushers with their ears pinned back, and receivers he trusted. Or perhaps that's an excuse.

**QtR Nevermore** · 02-23-2021, 01:27 PM

Originally Posted by Shas

That was my opinion as well. Although, I figure if it comes from Jeremiah, maybe it's more valid since he knows the team more than the average mocker. Then, when I saw Zrebiec, who knows the team better than anyone, mention safety as need that has not been talked about enough, I took notice.

I still will be a bit shocked if they make safety a first round pick, but not surprised if they address it with a pick from round four onward.

I'll be shocked if they don't draft a safety at some point or sign a FA. (I like that idea. Every year there are good veteran safeties signed cheaply. DeCosta just needs to be patient.) It's definitely a need but it doesn't seem like Zriebec was saying it's their top need or anything.

Mock drafts at this stage are about starting a conversation. They usually try to accurately predict picks nearer draft time.