OBJ Trade offers

[Willbacker]

The Ravens hold all the cards.

Reading all of these posts one thing is painfully obvious. Most people overvalue potential, i.e., what high draft picks could evolve or develop into.... vs. a proven 24 year old high-level OT coming into his prime.

- 75% of the NFL teams could use a high caliber LT 50% of them actually need one!
- Each day that goes by reciprocal trade & draft capital for Zeus increases.

The majority of speculators here are grossly overthinking this...

Potential can get you fired ie a draft pick is not a sure thing while Brown Jr is. I keep looking at the Jags as the best trade partner since they would want to protect their new franchize QB. The value is there.

[Unibomber]

IMO you're underestimating his value. A young, Pro-Bowl LT for only a 2nd round draft choice (albeit a HIGH 2nd) is not good enough. There is fan speculation (nothing official) about receiving the Jags 2nd (#33) and 3rd (#65) for O. Brown. Those are the first picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Of course that's only conjecture, but seems more realistic to me than your "fair market value"... Bc

I may well have BC. His value to the Ravens certainly exceeds that. My meaning is, all things being equal, that is the baseline of his value. Taking into account all the variables it may well be more.

[jonboy79]

How can anyone know that?

His market value is either A) the offer EDc accepts, or B) something more than the offer EDc declines.

The value fluctuates with each new tweet, with each MRI, with each cap casualty, with each re-reading of Fisher and Ury, with each hiring of Bill O'Brien.

Until we know the offers we don't know the value, except in a broad way (he's more valuable than a bag of donuts but not as valuable as three first round picks).

The danger here is misframing our expectations, boxing ourselves, setting us up for disappointment.

I don't know what his fair market value is because, frankly, I don't know how 32 GMs assess all the factors that make up the market.

I would clarify a bit that we may never know the market, but that EDC plays no part in it.
The market value is the top offer from the other 31 teams, whether EDC accepts that offer or not is inconsequential, the market is set by the mob not one man.


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[Unibomber]

How can anyone know that?

His market value is either A) the offer EDc accepts, or B) something more than the offer EDc declines.

The value fluctuates with each new tweet, with each MRI, with each cap casualty, with each re-reading of Fisher and Ury, with each hiring of Bill O'Brien.

Until we know the offers we don't know the value, except in a broad way (he's more valuable than a bag of donuts but not as valuable as three first round picks).

The danger here is misframing our expectations, boxing ourselves, setting us up for disappointment.

I don't know what his fair market value is because, frankly, I don't know how 32 GMs assess all the factors that make up the market.

Yes, I understand there are many variables to consider. There are things we do know: If retained this year, then signs with another team in free agency next year the Ravens are nearly assured of a 3rd round comp. He is a 2 and a half year starter. He has made 2 pro bowls. The last year on his contract is very affordable. Taking all those factors into account, I would set his minimum value at a high 2nd. He is worth more to the Ravens, but perhaps worth even more than that to another contending team with a long-term need at LT.

[The Wizard of OZ]

I think when you factor in what OBJ desires and when you look at team rosters, the field becomes pretty narrow as to who the trade partners could be. We most likely will not trade him to anyone in the AFCN so let's look at the other divisions.

AFC South - only two teams make sense here, Colts and Jags.


Colts - can only offer the 1st. They don't have a 2nd and I believe 3rd since they made the trade for Wentz. But the question here is would the do it when they can draft a cheaper guy. Secondly, I'd question the fit. I think OBJ excels here, in Baltimore, because we are primarily a power/gap team, I'm not sure his skills translate highly to a zone based team and this is what GMs have to think about. So there are a lot of factors GM's have to look at. Basically, just because OBJ excelled here as a LT does not mean he'd excel elsewhere, so the argument that you don't know what you are getting with a draft pick also applies here too. If I'm a zone based team I don't know what I'm getting with OBJ. So why not gamble on the cheaper guy?

Jags - This seems to make a lot of sense, but again, it's the fit that GMs need to be thinking about. We don't know what the Jags will be. Primarily Zone based scheme (if they are building around Lawrence, this is most likely going to be the case) or power/gap?

AFC East

Patriots - OBJ would be an massive upgrade for them over former Raven Eluemunor and he fits what they ran last year with Newton at QB and Harris at HB.

AFC West

Chargers - The entire line is in shambles. They are looking to trade Trai Turner as well. Bulaga right now seems to be their only starting Offensive lineman. This could be a sweet landing spot, pending what they do on offense.

Broncos - Bolles was on thin ice but they kept him for last season but I seriously question this because again, Denver is primarily a zone based team. It's only going to make sense if the GM thinks Brown translates well to it.

That's the AFC so there's not as many suitors IMO as some think because a smart GM is going to recognize that they run a particular scheme and they are going to do the homework and ask themselves some tough questions about whether they think Brown can play in it. So no matter how much we value Brown, the pro bowls ect, GMs are not looking at this the way fans are. Some will be perfectly fine drafting a T over OBJ because if they run a zone scheme and they don't think Brown will excel in it, why would they sign him to a long term deal when they can just draft a guy that fits their zone scheme for cheap?

So there's more to this than just Brown played LT, he went to two pro bowls so teams should be salivating.

The NFC I have the following teams as possibles

NFC East -Giants, Football team maybe.
NFC West - Nobody. You might say Seahawks, I say, they don't have the proper capital unless they want to send Metcalf
NFC South - Panthers (but Rhule isn't a power/gap scheme guy)
NFC North - Bears (maybe, but Nagy seems to be more zone based); Lions (might be satisfied with Taylor Decker); Vikings (this could be a good spot if they project him as a fit, I don't know their scheme)

So based on this I don't think there are as many suitors as we'd like to think. Some of this is also probably why a deal has not been found. It's not just EDC is waiting on the right offer. He is, but other GM's are asking if he's the right player for what they do on offense, so a lot of evaluation has to be done. And no matter what we think of OBJ a smart GM is going to evaluate his team and what they do on offense and go back and examine Brown and think about if he is a fit for their scheme. If there is any question on his part, he'll just turn to the draft because he doesn't know what he's getting either way. Take the cheaper deal.

It's going to be interesting to see how it unfolds. I think Brown will be suiting up for the Ravens one more year because I don't think the teams who are similar scheme wise will offer EDC what he wants and I think other teams might have issues projecting him into their heavy zone based scheme.

[leachisabeast]

I think when you factor in what OBJ desires and when you look at team rosters, the field becomes pretty narrow as to who the trade partners could be. We most likely will not trade him to anyone in the AFCN so let's look at the other divisions.

AFC South - only two teams make sense here, Colts and Jags.


Colts - can only offer the 1st. They don't have a 2nd and I believe 3rd since they made the trade for Wentz. But the question here is would the do it when they can draft a cheaper guy. Secondly, I'd question the fit. I think OBJ excels here, in Baltimore, because we are primarily a power/gap team, I'm not sure his skills translate highly to a zone based team and this is what GMs have to think about. So there are a lot of factors GM's have to look at. Basically, just because OBJ excelled here as a LT does not mean he'd excel elsewhere, so the argument that you don't know what you are getting with a draft pick also applies here too. If I'm a zone based team I don't know what I'm getting with OBJ. So why not gamble on the cheaper guy?

Jags - This seems to make a lot of sense, but again, it's the fit that GMs need to be thinking about. We don't know what the Jags will be. Primarily Zone based scheme (if they are building around Lawrence, this is most likely going to be the case) or power/gap?

AFC East

Patriots - OBJ would be an massive upgrade for them over former Raven Eluemunor and he fits what they ran last year with Newton at QB and Harris at HB.

AFC West

Chargers - The entire line is in shambles. They are looking to trade Trai Turner as well. Bulaga right now seems to be their only starting Offensive lineman. This could be a sweet landing spot, pending what they do on offense.

Broncos - Bolles was on thin ice but they kept him for last season but I seriously question this because again, Denver is primarily a zone based team. It's only going to make sense if the GM thinks Brown translates well to it.

That's the AFC so there's not as many suitors IMO as some think because a smart GM is going to recognize that they run a particular scheme and they are going to do the homework and ask themselves some tough questions about whether they think Brown can play in it. So no matter how much we value Brown, the pro bowls ect, GMs are not looking at this the way fans are. Some will be perfectly fine drafting a T over OBJ because if they run a zone scheme and they don't think Brown will excel in it, why would they sign him to a long term deal when they can just draft a guy that fits their zone scheme for cheap?

So there's more to this than just Brown played LT, he went to two pro bowls so teams should be salivating.

The NFC I have the following teams as possibles

NFC East -Giants, Football team maybe.
NFC West - Nobody. You might say Seahawks, I say, they don't have the proper capital unless they want to send Metcalf
NFC South - Panthers (but Rhule isn't a power/gap scheme guy)
NFC North - Bears (maybe, but Nagy seems to be more zone based); Lions (might be satisfied with Taylor Decker); Vikings (this could be a good spot if they project him as a fit, I don't know their scheme)

So based on this I don't think there are as many suitors as we'd like to think. Some of this is also probably why a deal has not been found. It's not just EDC is waiting on the right offer. He is, but other GM's are asking if he's the right player for what they do on offense, so a lot of evaluation has to be done. And no matter what we think of OBJ a smart GM is going to evaluate his team and what they do on offense and go back and examine Brown and think about if he is a fit for their scheme. If there is any question on his part, he'll just turn to the draft because he doesn't know what he's getting either way. Take the cheaper deal.

It's going to be interesting to see how it unfolds. I think Brown will be suiting up for the Ravens one more year because I don't think the teams who are similar scheme wise will offer EDC what he wants and I think other teams might have issues projecting him into their heavy zone based scheme.

Good breakdown as always wizard.

I think EDC is right to ask for a 1st and shouldn't settle for less (or possibly high 2nd rd pick plus something else)... but if we don't get the pick, it's not the end of the world we get another year out of OBJ and really good RT play.

[BcRaven]

Fair enough.
I trust local “sources” over fan speculation, but... it is certainly up to you.

I remember GWNR (Cole) stating his sources stated 33 was the top offer, as he was “confirming” a report from Zrebec or someone similar.

I still think we can get a late first and we all win, but 33&65 is a helluva lot more than a late first... I really just think that people that think that is a “good starting point” are doomed for disappointment.

I may well have BC. His value to the Ravens certainly exceeds that. My meaning is, all things being equal, that is the baseline of his value. Taking into account all the variables it may well be more.

OK gentlemen, right back atcha with "fair enough"

Only time, and Eric DeCosta, will tell... Bc

[Ortizer]

I would clarify a bit that we may never know the market, but that EDC plays no part in it.
The market value is the top offer from the other 31 teams, whether EDC accepts that offer or not is inconsequential, the market is set by the mob not one man.


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Not precisely. If he's not traded, that means EDC values him more than the best offer, we just can't quantify what that means he's worth to us.

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[HotInHere]

The Ravens hold all the cards.

Reading all of these posts one thing is painfully obvious. Most people overvalue potential, i.e., what high draft picks could evolve or develop into.... vs. a proven 24 year old high-level OT coming into his prime.

- 75% of the NFL teams could use a high caliber LT 50% of them actually need one!
- Each day that goes by reciprocal trade & draft capital for Zeus increases.

The majority of speculators here are grossly overthinking this...

The flipside of that is that most people undervalue cap costs. A tackle drafted in 2021 who is comparable in skill level to OBJ is worth WAY more.

OBJ will be taking up $15-$18MM in cap space, at least, on average, from 2022-2024. That will be at least $45MM and possibly over $60MM in actual cap costs. That is a SHITLOAD of money that you could do a lot of other things with.

Let's call it the "Tunsil Effect." What you get in predictability (i.e. the opposite of potential) you are going to pay for with hard cold cash. And in this case, also draft capital.

[jonboy79]

Not precisely. If he's not traded, that means EDC values him more than the best offer, we just can't quantify what that means he's worth to us.

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Correct, that confirms EDC values him more than the market, EDC was never part of the market. His value is determined by the market, of which he has no part. He controls the final sale price.


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[Valhain]

The flipside of that is that most people undervalue cap costs. A tackle drafted in 2021 who is comparable in skill level to OBJ is worth WAY more.

What are the chances of drafting a LT in this or any other year's draft that becomes a starter from day 1, let alone that guy being as good as OBJ? Surely not that many or half the league wouldn't be needing one, come on. Which is why, if an elite LT becomes available in FA pr via trade, you pay for it.

[HotInHere]

What are the chances of drafting a LT in this or any other year's draft that becomes a starter from day 1, let alone that guy being as good as OBJ? Surely not that many or half the league wouldn't be needing one, come on. Which is why, if an elite LT becomes available in FA pr via trade, you pay for it.

I don't know how you can say with certainty that Orlando Brown is an elite NFL LT. Very small sample size, in a very unique offense.

Maybe he will be, but it is definitely not a guarantee.