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Thread: I owe you guys an apology
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01-25-2021, 04:41 PM #13
Re: I owe you guys an apology
Dude - Have you seen the game threads on here ? Folks have gone full negative when the game is still in the first quarter. It was a tough loss - we all know what that feels like.
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01-25-2021, 05:47 PM #14
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01-25-2021, 06:31 PM #15Hall Of Fame Poster
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Re: I owe you guys an apology
I have. I had to encourage you guys as I remember some Raven fans were saying Game over in the 1st quarter of a game earlier this season. I was the same way yesterday lol. I remember in HS football we lost 63-0. I remember the whole bus ride home you could hear a pin drop. We were upset lol.
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01-25-2021, 07:05 PM #16Legendary RSR Poster
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Re: I owe you guys an apology
You are very likely too young to know the off-Broadway show "The Fantasticks." There is a wonderful song in it "Try to Remember" that has a line for everyone young-and-old, "Without a hurt, the heart is hollow."
It's true! We must experience defeat/failure before victory so we can appreciate the achievement... Bc
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01-25-2021, 08:35 PM #17
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01-25-2021, 09:08 PM #18Hall Of Fame Poster
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Re: I owe you guys an apology
Dude, I already put you on ignore and reported you to the mods.
Do you see how ridiculous that statement is?
You have nothing to apologize for.
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Re: I owe you guys an apology
If you thought that was bad, you should have heard my WR rants after the ends of the 2010 and 2011 seasons.
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Re: I owe you guys an apology
Are there going to be GIFs?
World Domination 3 Points at a Time!
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01-25-2021, 11:24 PM #22Hall Of Fame Poster
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01-25-2021, 11:25 PM #23Hall Of Fame Poster
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01-26-2021, 12:52 AM #24Pro Bowl Poster
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Re: I owe you guys an apology
Packers Win Probability (using WP calc on pro-football-reference) after the FG was 3.4%
If the Packers had scored the TD and 2pt conversion, their Win Probability would've been 37.6%
That means they were more than 10x likelier to win if they scored and converted.
And here's the real kicker, your sense of "he probably wouldn't convert one of those two plays" shouldn't even be restricted to those two plays, since they're down 5 and still need a touchdown after the FG. you have to weight the difficulty of a first ballot HOFer scoring a TD and 2pt conv. from 8 yards out versus the difficulty of Rodgers getting the ball back, driving the length of the field again, scoring a TD, and kicking the XP. there is no universe where it's easier to go 75yds and kick an XP then score from the 8yd line and convert 2pt try.
oh yeah, and on top of all that, Aaron Rodgers had the best completion % in the red zone in the league this year, 81.25% from inside the 10.
the decision to kick the field goal is objectively, statistically, one of the closest coaching decisions to 100% dead wrong that you will ever see in an NFL game. in terms of how bad it is, it's not far off from taking a knee when your team is losing at the end of a game. i'm fairly certain that somebody smarter than me is working out the exact details to figure out how monumentally stupid of a decision it was, and in the next few days hopefully someone will publish these findings. until then, please accept my armchair guesstimate that this was probably the worst coaching decision of the whole NFL season, and possibly one of the worst all time.
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