Senior Bowl

[Ravenswintitle]

every single thread...

[edromeo]

Here is where Greg Roman ranks in passing attempts as an OC:

2011 SFO 31st
2012 SFO 31st
2013 SFO 32nd
2014 SFO 29th
2015 BUF 31st
2016 BUF 32nd
2019 BAL 32nd
2020 BAL 32nd

This isn't about offensive lines or even being great at rushing. It's Greg Roman's philosophy. He doesn't want to throw the ball. This is the same patten for a decade with 3 different teams and 3 different quarterbacks.

I agree with you that the attempts can't be something that matters to Harbaugh. He's knows these attempts numbers and obviously doesn't care. Roman was still able to get 1000 yard receiving seasons from Crabtree and Boldin and Sammy Watkins so I'm hoping that with the right WR the Ravens can improve the way that you suggest.

Great post. I don’t know how to give reputation on the phone.

[jonboy79]

Well, first off, I agree and disagree on the first point. I'd bet half of the Ravens passes come on obvious passing downs, third and medium or long, for instance. There is little element of surprise there. Where you could have a point is when team throws in unexpected situations, like first down. However, more than a third of the Ravens throws were on first down, which ties for merely 11th least. The spread between the the team that passes the most on first down, the Titans, and the Ravens is less than 6% of snaps. The Ravens averaged throwing on first down 9 times a game...the Titans 13.

Your point that KC's great passing game probably makes it easier on their running game is absolutely correct. But this logic is driving me absolutely insane.

When having a strong passing game helps KC's running game, it is lauded. When having a strong running game helps Baltimore's passing game it's ridiculed. That's insanity.

Using the run to open up the passing game is as old as football and a perfectly valid strategy. What's misleading about that? We can disagree, but I when I say the Ravens are efficient throwing the ball—without mentioning that this is helped by their strong running game—I don't think I am being misleading.

That's entirely different than someone saying the Ravens have "the 32nd ranked passing offense" without mentioning this is actually just a reflection of throwing the ball less than everyone else, so the volume isn't there to drive up the total...leaving out that when they do thow it they are pretty efficient.

What I am describing is the Ravens offense exactly as they designed it and want to run it.

That said, I think it's fair to say they might want to rebalance their run-pass. Having the most rush and fewest pass attempts probably should not be the goal, even if they are going to be a strong running team. You mentioned KC. They throw it the most in the league, but they still run it 22nd most. That's closer to the ideal balance probably, I will admit. The Steelers threw it most often and ran it 28th most, and that was unhealthy. They ran it that infrequently because they sucked running it, with the lowest YPC average in the league. By the way, notice how their proclivity to throw it did nothing to improve their rushing efficiency, as theorized with KC.



One last point. We all need to note that Ravens' led the league in number of rushing attempts at 555. But that is not completely a reflection of Roman wanting to run the ball.

Lamar, who played in 15 games, was responsible for about 30% of that total, with 159 rushing attempts. I am going to guess that 100 of those rushing attempts were scrambles. If Lamar had 100 more passing attempts, meaning 100 fewer rushing attempts, they would have been the 12th most rushing attempts and 6th fewest passing attempts.

Lamar runs so often because receivers can't get open, or more probably, he is getting pressured.

So when Harbaugh says that improving the offensive line is priority one, and they pull it off, I think we can expect a lot more called passing plays to result in passes. If they can both improve the line and bring in a receiver who presents a more reliable target, then I feel even more confident we won't belaboring this point this time next year.

Where we can question Roman in all this is whether, in his history, his scheme has done enough to get receivers open or protect the QB long enough. That's what needs to change. We'll see if he can do it.

I read here somewhere, no idea who to quote
“Lamar is his own check down”
No this is clearly true. Lamar will scramble instead of dump off, 9 times out of 10. As U note, this alone would flip his numbers and make a lot more people happy, whether the team won more or. not.


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[QtR Nevermore]

Well, first off, I agree and disagree on the first point. I'd bet half of the Ravens passes come on obvious passing downs, third and medium or long, for instance. There is little element of surprise there. Where you could have a point is when team throws in unexpected situations, like first down. However, more than a third of the Ravens throws were on first down, which ties for merely 11th least. The spread between the the team that passes the most on first down, the Titans, and the Ravens is less than 6% of snaps. The Ravens averaged throwing on first down 9 times a game...the Titans 13.

Your point that KC's great passing game probably makes it easier on their running game is absolutely correct. But this logic is driving me absolutely insane.

When having a strong passing game helps KC's running game, it is lauded. When having a strong running game helps Baltimore's passing game it's ridiculed. That's insanity.

Oops. Didn't realise I'd written an essay until I posted it.

It's not my logic. I do want the Ravens to pass the ball a bit more, especially on 1st and 2nd downs, but I still want them to be a run heavy team who uses the run to open up the pass.

My point was that for Harbaugh or anyone else to use the passing efficiency stats to claim the Ravens passing game is middling, or less bad than people are saying is a weak argument. The thing the defense is giving you because they're trying to stop something else will always be more efficient.

We've seen what happens when the Ravens are forced to pass and oponents can line up and play pass defense and it doesn't go well. If KC ever tried to run against a team playing run defense they'd struggle to gain a yard but they almost never have to do that. That's because passing is never completely off the menu as an option in the NFL, whereas the scoreboard, the clock and the down and distance can all take running away.

Therefore passing is just a better offensive weapon than running. The Bills can win a playoff game without running at all really but maybe the best running team of all time still has to improve its passing game to win in the playoffs.

A lot of people round here are saying things like "It's fine. We're a running team. Look at Roman's track record of offensive success." or "Lamar can't pass. Why try?" or the "Ravens can't draft WRs so don't bother. Just strengthen the O Line and run." None of those arguments make sense to me.

For one thing, it's not 2000 anymore. You can't win in the playoffs with a defense and a run game anymore. I think this year's Ravens have proven that more than any team ever. The number 4 run game of all time and a defense playing as well as anyone could hope for in the playoffs didn't even make the final four or really ever look like beating a one dimensional Buffalo team. That recipe is never going to win again unless the rules are changed.

If a team isn't improving it's going backwards and the only place the Ravens realistically can improve is the passing game. That has to be the focus of this off season.

Next season, if they want the passing game to be better in the playoffs, the Ravens have to pass more every week so that they're practicing and getting more live reps throughout the year. Roman tried to pass more within the structure of his offense early in the season. It didn't work and they had to go back to the run just to make the playoffs in the end.

My preferred option would be for a new OC but that's mainly based on my feelings about how next season will go. Realistically, this version of the Ravens has had more than enough success to warrant another chance. I would like to see Roman change the structure of his offense into something that would be more pass friendly but that would mean the running game would regress and the early games would be a struggle - I don't see either Harbaugh or Roman going for that. (So I suppose I'll have to live with this and get ready to say 'I told you so' at the end of the regular season.)

The absolute minimum change that would have a chance of succeeding would be to upgrade the O Line and the receiving talent, as you suggest. That might work if they seriously commit to both parts of the plan - either the first round pick or the big FA signing has to be a pass catching weapon. Harbaugh's improve the O Line and add a WR if we can afford one line from the press conference won't be enough. It will take a genuinley talented receiver to elevate Roman's passing game into something opponents have to worry about, so I'm hoping DeCosta sees things a bit differently from Harbaugh.

[GreatWhiteNorthRaven]

Watching Drake Jackson this morning.

Kids a hell of a fit for our scheme. Probably a 3rd-4th round guy. His value is all over the place.

It's a good year to need some big lads. The size of these dudes in this IOL class are great fits for a gap scheme.

[GreatWhiteNorthRaven]

I'll post on here. Im trying to have 3 games on each C in the senior bowl watched this weekend to do a preview thread. It's my #1 focus for the OL.

Menet, Jackson, Dickerson (though he's not playing), Humphrey

[Shas]

My point was that for Harbaugh or anyone else to use the passing efficiency stats to claim the Ravens passing game is middling, or less bad than people are saying is a weak argument. The thing the defense is giving you because they're trying to stop something else will always be more efficient.

And I am saying that the blanket statement, "the Ravens are the 32nd ranked passing offense" is a 10x weaker argument, and Harbaugh is right to point that out. He, you and I know they need to get better, and no one said otherwise, but let's not mischaracterize where they really are.

We've seen what happens when the Ravens are forced to pass and oponents can line up and play pass defense and it doesn't go well....

You are aligning with what Harbaugh and I are saying. It's not that they need to pass more often and become more of a "modern" passing team. They need to be more efficient passing, so when they have to pass they can rely on it.

Let's be honest about what constitutes these vague statements like, "doesn't go well." They are 27th in completion percentage. That's what needs to get better. But let's also be clear they are 7th in third down conversions, and so they don't have to rely on must-pass as often, and that's by design. There is nothing wrong with that design. Every decision has its weaknesses and and strengths. A must-pass, can't run team isn't going to close out wins whey they grab the lead, like the Ravens will.

What it tells me is they don't have to throw out who they are, they need to get better at executing who they are, which is what Harbaugh's point is, and I agree with him. They need to address the line so they have time to throw and hopefully a another reliable target and schemes to get receivers open. I think they can do that without firing Roman and starting over a more "modern," traditional passing attack.

Therefore passing is just a better offensive weapon than running. ...

Again, that's just subjective and we disagree. That's cool, but let's not pretend this is a fact.

For one thing, it's not 2000 anymore. You can't win in the playoffs with a defense and a run game anymore.

This is a factoid. If you look up the actual definition, that's a fact-like statement repeated often enough that it is assumed to be true. Other than rules designed to help offenses, I don't know why I should accept it as truth. It's not 2015, either, when Joe Flacco could just chuck the ball downfield and expect to get at 40 yard PI call. Everyone always talks about rules tilted against defenses, but if you look the stats, defensive holding an PI were called 474 times and account for 23 yards per game in penalty distance. Offensive PI and holding were called 524 times and account for 20 yards of penalty distance in the average game this year. Roughing the passer calls are down to less than one call per every two games. So I'm not seeing evidence that the perceived imbalance that favors the passing offense is really an imbalance. Consider that the top ten teams in passing attempts include teams like Jax, Dallas, Philly, WFT, Steelers, Falcons, Chargers and Bears...teams I don't want to see the Ravens become.

Furthermore, it's 2021, not 2015, and I see a whole lot of mobile college quarterbacks getting a chance to be effective NFL quarterbacks. The 2020 Ravens looked nothing like the Dilfer led 2000. That's a strawman comparison deflecting an argument no one is making. They also don't look like the 2015 Flacco-led Ravens, either, and I wouldn't suggest you are calling for a return of that offense just because you are calling for more passing.

If a team isn't improving it's going backwards and the only place the Ravens realistically can improve is the passing game. That has to be the focus of this off season. Next season, if they want the passing game to be better in the playoffs, the Ravens have to pass more every week so that they're practicing and getting more live reps throughout the year. Roman tried to pass more within the structure of his offense early in the season. It didn't work and they had to go back to the run just to make the playoffs in the end.

We're not far apart here. We agree on the goal. So does Harbaugh. We may not agree on the solution.

I am not sure it's fair to say the solution is more practice reps. Unless you have some special access you really don't know how much they practice the passing game and if it's enough. It's a good guess that COVID put a dent in the amount of time they could spend together practicing, I will give you that. But that's not Roman's fault.

Roman did try to pass more and I agree that it didn't work as well as we all want it to. If scheme is a factor, then Roman needs to fix that. I also lean to issues being player execution problems rather than coaching problems. Which is why I have stated that an upgrade on the interior of the line (along with Stanley and Brown being back to their tackle anchor spots), will help a lot, along with better execution and the #2 and #3 WR and TE spots, through availability, growth, or new personnel.

Look, sounds like we're never going to convince each other to abandon our positions and accept the counter arguments. So I will stop belaboring mine. All I know is that the position I am lobbying for sounds like the direction they are headed, so we can come back to this discussion in a year to find out who has the honor of saying, told you so.

[Ravenswintitle]

I'll post on here. Im trying to have 3 games on each C in the senior bowl watched this weekend to do a preview thread. It's my #1 focus for the OL.

Menet, Jackson, Dickerson (though he's not playing), Humphrey

maybe start another thread? this one keeps getting trashed with offense complaints like most others

[Laxdad24]

maybe start another thread? this one keeps getting trashed with offense complaints like most others

Can’t have anything nice can we RWT? Lol. Usually this thread is great during the off-season. It’s when we get to hear from our great NCAA handicappers like GWNR and BPR.


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[QtR Nevermore]

maybe start another thread? this one keeps getting trashed with offense complaints like most others

As one of the trashers, I apologise. I didn't mean to. I think that conversation's just the unavoidable theme of this week. Someone says something and the debate starts again, all over the board. I think it'll settle down soon.

[JimZipCode]

Creed Humphrey, Alex Leatherwood, Liam Eichenberg, Deonte Brown, Ben Cleveland, and Alaric Jackson for me.

Creed is fucking huge.

How are his movement skills? Can he pull? Reach? Or is he a slug?

[JimZipCode]

My favorite part of Harbaugh press conferences is people reading whatever the want into intentionally vague comments that are not meant to give anything away.

Ouch!