First thoughts on offense

[JimZipCode]

Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance.

I’m not quite ready to deal with this board yet. But I wanted to jot down my first thoughts on the offense, before I dive into the other takes (eg JTO's 40+ min QB School vid on our passing game).

One note:

• Four teams have made playoffs each of the last 3 seasons: the Saints, Seahawks, Chiefs & Ravens.
• Three teams have made the divisional round each of the last 2 seasons: the Packers, Chiefs & Ravens.

Not everything is broke. But definitely some stuff needs fixing.


Offensive Line

The Ravens have applied a distinct philosophy to roster-building philsophy for 25 yrs. Position value. Some positions get big investment, others don’t.

On the OL, the Ravens have spent high draft picks or dollars on Tackles, only. They've filled the Interior OL with lower picks or cheaper FAs. (Except for Ben Grubbs, 1st rd 2007.) That’s Planet Theory Moneyball in action: very few guys with the gifts to play OT decently at the NFL level, many more (comparatively) who can do the interior. This has been an important area of savings for them. Getting solid iOL play from (say) a 6th-rounder like Ryan Jensen at C, frees up more high picks and/or dollars for (say) corner. It helps the whole roster fit together.

Cole GWNR tweeted this out just after the game:

Cole Jackson
@ColeJacksonRSR
10:36 PM · Jan 16, 2021
https://twitter.com/ColeJacksonRSR/s...48043473956864

Lamar Jackson has his own faults that we can get into separately, but one thing stands out.

2018: Ravens OL dominated by the Chargers 4 man rush
2019: Ravens OL dominated by the Titans 3 IDL (Didn't even stack box)
2020: Ravens OL dominated by the Bills (granted they blitzed)

Maybe it's time for a change in philosophy. See how the Bills made offense easier for Josh Allen. That didn't start with Diggs, it started with building up their OL last year. Sean Payton has been securing pocket interiors for Drew Brees to step up into ever since he signed Grubbs out of Baltimore. They had a Pro Bowl G again this year, in addition to drafting Cesar Ruiz. The Chiefs don't fuck around with their OL. Hell, the Brownies won a playoff game for the first time in a generation, largely on the backs of a great OL. They also had a Pro Bowl guard.

It just stands to reason: if you want to have a great offense, you need a great OL. Not just at the tackles, but in the interior too. DLs have only gotten more freakishly explosive (DeForest Buckner, Chase Young, TJ Watt). You gotta fight them.

That's philosophy. For this sesaon, I see 3 specific practical errors:

• Enter season with no Swing T
• Mis-eval of Tyre P
• Center, WTF!

We were calling out the absence of a backup OT in July/August. Maybe they were caught flat-footed when Andre Smith opted out of the season for covid? Regardless, Fluker was not the answer.

Tyre P may have very fine upside, but he was not ready to play this season. The Ravens blew it there. They gifted him the starting RG job, and he struggled in pass pro. I honestly think that he himself was the first domino on Lamar's decline in play this season. And if that's a lot of weight to put on a player: well the iOL is a critical position group.

Center, OMFG. I am over “experiments” at C. I want a guy who started full-time at center for a P5 team. Yes, I know that describes Bradley Bozeman, but a draftee would be fine too.

It's vital that the organization NOT say, well we'll get Stanley back so everything will be fine. NO. The "next step" requires a good OL. Not just at the Tackles, but on the interior too.


Scheme

I'm fine with zigging while the rest of the league zags. That's how you get a competitive advantage. And I gain extra confidence from the fact that some of the sharpest offensive minds in the league build their attacks on the running game, incl Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay.

BUT.

Three 3 seasons in a row the offense has gotten stuffed. Yes, OL issues. But if our offense can be throttled by a run blitz, then we're fucked. I don't agree that the passing O is completely devoid of "richness" in concepts. But they need specific situational improvements.

At a minimum the offense needs adjustments for when the QB is "hot" (cf Kurt Warner & JTO). The answer can’t be just, Lamar can make the free rusher miss. The offense MUST be able to routinely punish teams for blitzing. "Punish" might mean just an easy 7 yd gain; but the important thing is to take away the obvious "solution" from defenses. If they run-blitz and all it gets them is 2nd-&-3, then that's a problem for them.


Lamar

OL and scheme issues deserve their share of blame for the passing game performance. But it's ALSO true that Lamar himself was not good this season. He deteriorated in all of is fundamentals over the first month or so of the season. He seemed to stabilize late, but there were still some throws in the playoff game that were missed due to poor fundamentals.

● Lamar MUST get his full volume of work in this offseason
I get that covid disrupted his plans with Coach Harris. Ok, what's done is done. But nothing like that can happen again this offseason.

Jordan Palmer is this offseason's flavor of the month. I'd be fine with that. But frankly I got no complains with Coach Harris. He's the guy who prepped Lamar for '19, and that turned out pretty decent Also remember Lamar got a brief intro to Tom House (or someone on his staff), two offseasons ago, but didn't get to do any real work with them in that 18-19 offseason. I'd be fine with House & co too.

Whoever it is, Lamar has GOT to get the FULL volume of work this offseason. He needs it.

• Drop-back footwork
• Firing at the top of drop
• Throwing to the sideline, not just down his "cone of comfort"
• Quick foot re-alignment to change direction on reads

All the passing fundamentals. The stuff's gotta be grooved. He needs to prep like a less-talented guy preps, as if technique is the only barrier between success and failure. Because it is.


WR

Everyone is all keyed up to get a big-name WR. Sign Allen Robinson! Sign Kenny Golliday! Sign Chris Godwin!

I'm indifferent to it. For one thing, we have cap issues (as do 25 other teams). More importantly, it seems like the wrong end of the pyramid to start with. If we don't address this other shit described above, then it won't matter if Saint Jerry Rice himself descends from his throne on Mount Olympus to run routes for us. And if we *DO* address that stuff above, then we can be productive with guys like the ones we have, plus a draftee at WR or TE, and use that cap money elsewhere

I guess the one thing that a big signing would do, if we threw money at a FA WR, that would really trigger a lot of changes in game-planning and play-calling. The coaching stuff would be FORCED to use him. Same mechanism as using the #1 pick on Marquise: creates organizational pressure to realize value from the acquisition, in the way that a 3rd rd pick doesn't. Worth noting, that probably ends the development paths of, not only Boykin, but Duvernay too. But if it jolts the passing game into life, then I could see it being worth it as a jump-start / hot-shot.

I still think other things are more critical.


Fire Roman?

I guess if the Fire Roman Train is barreling down, I'm not going to throw myself onto the tracks to stop it. But some factoids are worth noticing.

Here is every season where the Ravens have finished in the top ten in weighted offensive DVOA:

Year	WeiDVOA
2019	1 (1 total)
1996	1 (1 total)
2014	8 (9 total)
2020	9 (11 total)
2009	10 (9 total)

Here's every season where the Ravens finished in the top 10 in scoring:

Year	Pts
2019	1
1996	6
2020	7
2014	8
2003	8
2009	9
2017	9
2012	10

Here are the top 7 Ravens seasons by PFR's "Simple Rating System" for Offense:
(our only seasons over 2.5)

Year	OSRS
2019	11
2008	4.2
1996	3.9
2020	3.9
2003	3.3
2009	2.6
2011	2.6

(How the hell is 2008 ranked so high???)

This disappointing offense that we want to fire Roman for, might be the third-best offense (relative to the league) in team history.

That's WITH losing our All-Pro LT for half the season, and losing our QB for a game plus some weeks of practice, and losing the league's best blocking TE for half the season, and our centers snapping the ball past our QB in multiple games, and the comedy stylings of DJ Fuker & Tyre Phillips in pass pro, and our 1st-rd WR forgetting how to catch for the month of November. Seriously, the list of things that went wrong for the offense this year is daunting.


There's no reason for the future not to be bright. But there is some serious work to do.

[Shrubbs]

Pretty much agree on everything Zip Code

[jonboy79]

Typical Jimmy Book... agree With pretty much everything.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[WNCRavensFan]

Best point - Lamar getting his full work load in with Joshua Harris. I know Lamar's up for it - it's not a given until enough vaccines are distributed in Florida.

Also since Coach Harris is currently in the Hollywood area, you know Marquise Brown will be hanging around.

[JimZipCode]

Also since Coach Harris is currently in the Hollywood area, you know Marquise Brown will be hanging around.

Boykin better get his ass a condo around Lauderdale too. That is, if he wants to salvage his career.

[Continuity Steve]

Good to see you, bud, and glad you're doing well enough given the frustrating circumstances. I made a thread with you in mind the other day.

[veritas]

Denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance.



Fire Roman?

I guess if the Fire Roman Train is barreling down, I'm not going to throw myself onto the tracks to stop it. But some factoids are worth noticing.

Here is every season where the Ravens have finished in the top ten in weighted offensive DVOA:

Year	WeiDVOA
2019	1 (1 total)
1996	1 (1 total)
2014	8 (9 total)
2020	9 (11 total)
2009	10 (9 total)

Here's every season where the Ravens finished in the top 10 in scoring:

Year	Pts
2019	1
1996	6
2020	7
2014	8
2003	8
2009	9
2017	9
2012	10

Here are the top 7 Ravens seasons by PFR's "Simple Rating System" for Offense:
(our only seasons over 2.5)

Year	OSRS
2019	11
2008	4.2
1996	3.9
2020	3.9
2003	3.3
2009	2.6
2011	2.6

(How the hell is 2008 ranked so high???)

This disappointing offense that we want to fire Roman for, might be the third-best offense (relative to the league) in team history.

That's WITH losing our All-Pro LT for half the season, and losing our QB for a game plus some weeks of practice, and losing the league's best blocking TE for half the season, and our centers snapping the ball past our QB in multiple games, and the comedy stylings of DJ Fuker & Tyre Phillips in pass pro, and our 1st-rd WR forgetting how to catch for the month of November. Seriously, the list of things that went wrong for the offense this year is daunting.


There's no reason for the future not to be bright. But there is some serious work to do.

What those charts show me is how much of an outlier 2019 was and how much of a regression 2020 was relative to it. I guess what we have to ask ourselves is whether the run game can continue to represent the bulk of the offensive production when we have empirical evidence that it CANNOT win in the playoffs. Yes, we have work to do but I'm doubtful that we have the guy here that we need to do it. I'd be happy to be proved wrong next year but I'm not hopeful.

[JimZipCode]

Good to see you, bud, and glad you're doing well enough given the frustrating circumstances. I made a thread with you in mind the other day.

Hey. Nice to hear from you.

I'll check it out. Might take me a day or so to buck myself up for it.

[JimZipCode]

I guess what we have to ask ourselves is whether the run game can continue to represent the bulk of the offensive production when we have empirical evidence that it CANNOT win in the playoffs.

Roman's offense went to three straight NFC conf championships in 2011-13, winning one.

Came within a foot of snatching the SB away from us.

Empirical evidence that it CAN win and HAS won in the playoffs.

[Laxdad24]

Roman's offense went to three straight NFC conf championships in 2011-13, winning one.

Came within a foot of snatching the SB away from us.

Empirical evidence that it CAN win and HAS won in the playoffs.

Jimmy. All due respect my man but ...7 yrs ago might as well be 50 yrs ago in today’s NFL. The rules are soo different now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[veritas]

Jimmy. All due respect my man but ...7 yrs ago might as well be 50 yrs ago in today’s NFL. The rules are soo different now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yep. Roman's rankings (run/pass) for those three years:

2011 - 8/29

2012 - 4/23

2013 - 3/30

[jamb17]

#1 rushing offense #32 passing offense
Says it all!!