What They're Saying About the Ravens

[Iamjacks]

I’ll take Cosell over Mink in my sleep.

Mink is Ravens media cartel, Cosell is independent analysis. Choose wisely.

[xiao_ke]

Mink is Ravens media cartel, Cosell is independent analysis. Choose wisely.

It's Mink's job to defend the castle. I like him, but I don't take him seriously as an objective NFL analyst.

[The Excellector]

I mean, seriously people:

Ross Tucker
Steve Smith Sr.
Shannon Sharpe
Kurt Warner
Chris Simms
Greg Cosell

Two Hall of Famers known for their study habits, and part of two of the most dominant offenses in NFL History.

One Hall of very Good WR (Please don’t tell him I said that. I can’t afford another head injury), who has always been honest and direct, and was a technician at the position, underneath of that violent style.

Two widely respected media/radio/podcast personalities also well known for their film study.

And Greg *Expletive* Cosell (Enough said).

Are some really that triggered that they would feel that these six guys are spewing non-sense?

[Shas]

This is not a question of which media figure is more knowledgeable and unbiased.

It's a question of which of their offhand statements is supported by facts.

Cossell: "they do not want to throw the ball unless they absolutely have to."

Mink: "The Ravens throw the ball A LOT when they don't 'absolutely have to.'"

As I have stated, the facts support Mink.

Can we agree that teams don't have to throw on first downs? And yet, the Ravens threw the ball in excess of 1 out of 3 first-down snaps. (A little more if you consider that a decent number of Lamar's 159 rushing attempts were called passing plays on first down). Ten teams threw on first down less frequently than the Ravens.

If that's not proof that Cossell's statement is false, then someone can post counter evidence that he's right.

I typically like Cossell's commentary. And there is plenty to criticize in the Ravens passing game. But let's be real.

[bmorecareful]

This is not a question of which media figure is more knowledgeable and unbiased.

It's a question of which of their offhand statements is supported by facts.

Cossell: "they do not want to throw the ball unless they absolutely have to."

Mink: "The Ravens throw the ball A LOT when they don't 'absolutely have to.'"

As I have stated, the facts support Mink.

Can we agree that teams don't have to throw on first downs? And yet, the Ravens threw the ball in excess of 1 out of 3 first-down snaps. (A little more if you consider that a decent number of Lamar's 159 rushing attempts were called passing plays on first down). Ten teams threw on first down less frequently than the Ravens.

If that's not proof that Cossell's statement is false, then someone can post counter evidence that he's right.

I typically like Cossell's commentary. And there is plenty to criticize in the Ravens passing game. But let's be real.

What's the source for this "ten teams threw on first down less than the Ravens"? Every source I've seen has the Ravens 32nd or 31st in the league in passing on first down. https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/s...ios--off-.html reports 31st in pass % on first down. https://www.footballdb.com/statistic...0?sort=passatt shows 32nd in raw pass attempts on 1st down.

Perhaps you're using dropback percentage on 1st down, which could be meaningfully different since that would count scrambles as "called pass plays"? I don't have that stat handy, but I don't think that takes you far away from last or next-to-last, and that's also not what you said.

We can quibble with Cosell's exact framing somewhat--I would say the Ravens throw only when they have to OR they think they're getting a no-brainer matchup. But his overall thrust is correct IMO. The Ravens do not seem to believe they can win off of Lamar's arm.

[Shas]

What's the source for this "ten teams threw on first down less than the Ravens"?

Here is what I am referencing.

Let me be more careful in how I am wording this. It is a reflection of the number of their passes that were thrown on first down versus all of their passes thrown. It shows 142, or 35%, of their league-low 402 passing attempts came on first down. And that's the merely 11th lowest percentage. Ten teams threw less often on first down as a percentage of all their throws attempted.

A team that only throws when it has to is going to have nearly all their throws come on third down, or come when they are trailing in games as the clock is running out in the fourth quarter...which was not what explains their 142 first down throws.

The crazy thing about the whole discussion is that Roman has been criticized in the past (e.g., '19 playoff game v. Titans) for deviating from the rushing game.

Feels to me that some people just don't like the offensive style and are grasping for reasons to dump it, and him, even if it's contradictory or irrational.

[HbgPARavenfan]

Roman's offense dies because its too bunched formation wise making it easy to cover with zone.

His play selection is repetitive and played out

His qbs develop a habit of only throwing when a player is wide fucking open, without any ability to anticipate

His run game gets shut down in the playoffs because good defenses in BIG games understand they actually have to play asignment football...not hero ball.

Penatrate and read your keys and option plays are DOA.

[Shas]

Roman's offense dies because its too bunched formation wise making it easy to cover with zone.

His play selection is repetitive and played out

His qbs develop a habit of only throwing when a player is wide fucking open, without any ability to anticipate

His run game gets shut down in the playoffs because good defenses in BIG games understand they actually have to play asignment football...not hero ball.

Penatrate and read your keys and option plays are DOA.

Sure seems like plays designed to help receivers get open...and receivers who Lamar can trust to be where they are supposed to be on the field, so he can throw them open...should be part of the changes they make. That, alone, even with playcalling that leans heavily to the run, would be what I want to see.

Lamar, Andrews and Hollywood excel in playing playground football, and like to say that. That's fine when a play breaks down and Lamar has time to improvise. But they need to improve on effectively running the play as it was called in the huddle. That might require redesigning some plays, or getting receivers who are better at reading and running routes. Or both.

[Shas]

I'll pass on these comments by Jeff Zrebiec, who along with Jamison Hemsley, probably know the team better than anyone.

In a recent column where he graded each position group, in the Q&A section he was asked about "stubborn John Harbaugh" sticking with Roman, and isn't it insane to expect Roman, given his track record, to be able suddenly became a passing guru. The response,

Roman doesn't need to become a passing guru. He and the pass game coordinator and QB coach just needs to be better than what they've been in that area. I'm not addressing you specifically, but it seems a lot of fans think they should become a wide-open offense. They're not suited to play that way. They don't have the QB to play that way. Their pass protection isn't good enough. Their backs haven't been giving them a lot in the passing game (although they can surely give them more than what we've seen). It's a below average WR group. They have one pass catching TE. So all this talk about scheme, they're running the offense that the personnel is suited for. Now, having said all that, being 32nd in the league is unacceptable by any measure. They need to get better. They were better in 2019. Better personnel should help. Better concepts by Roman and company should help. But they're not going to be a top-15 type passing offense with this personnel.

I think that's a fair assessment.

[bmorecareful]

Here is what I am referencing.

Let me be more careful in how I am wording this. It is a reflection of the number of their passes that were thrown on first down versus all of their passes thrown. It shows 142, or 35%, of their league-low 402 passing attempts came on first down. And that's the merely 11th lowest percentage. Ten teams threw less often on first down as a percentage of all their throws attempted.

A team that only throws when it has to is going to have nearly all their throws come on third down, or come when they are trailing in games as the clock is running out in the fourth quarter...which was not what explains their 142 first down throws.

The crazy thing about the whole discussion is that Roman has been criticized in the past (e.g., '19 playoff game v. Titans) for deviating from the rushing game.

Feels to me that some people just don't like the offensive style and are grasping for reasons to dump it, and him, even if it's contradictory or irrational.

That's not what that stat actually means. The Ravens had 142 first downs by passing, not passes on first down.

The statistic you seem to want, first down passes as a percentage of overall passes, isn't a standard NFL statistic I could find anywhere. I don't think it would have much explanatory value anyway because, as you said, teams will tend to pass more on first down when trailing, in 2 minute drills, etc.

Even if the Ravens had a higher share of first down passes as percentage of overall passes compared to other teams, it wouldn't disprove Cosell's point unless you controlled for all those factors.

[The Excellector]

This is not a question of which media figure is more knowledgeable and unbiased.

It's a question of which of their offhand statements is supported by facts.

Cossell: "they do not want to throw the ball unless they absolutely have to."

Mink: "The Ravens throw the ball A LOT when they don't 'absolutely have to.'"

As I have stated, the facts support Mink.

Can we agree that teams don't have to throw on first downs? And yet, the Ravens threw the ball in excess of 1 out of 3 first-down snaps. (A little more if you consider that a decent number of Lamar's 159 rushing attempts were called passing plays on first down). Ten teams threw on first down less frequently than the Ravens.

If that's not proof that Cossell's statement is false, then someone can post counter evidence that he's right.

I typically like Cossell's commentary. And there is plenty to criticize in the Ravens passing game. But let's be real.

So, only ten teams threw it less and you’re going to take Cosell’s comment in the most literally manner possible, to agree with Mink, when that would only rank them 22nd anyway?

Edit: Bmorecareful covered the mix-up.

[The Excellector]

Here is what I am referencing.

Let me be more careful in how I am wording this. It is a reflection of the number of their passes that were thrown on first down versus all of their passes thrown. It shows 142, or 35%, of their league-low 402 passing attempts came on first down. And that's the merely 11th lowest percentage. Ten teams threw less often on first down as a percentage of all their throws attempted.

A team that only throws when it has to is going to have nearly all their throws come on third down, or come when they are trailing in games as the clock is running out in the fourth quarter...which was not what explains their 142 first down throws.

The crazy thing about the whole discussion is that Roman has been criticized in the past (e.g., '19 playoff game v. Titans) for deviating from the rushing game.

Feels to me that some people just don't like the offensive style and are grasping for reasons to dump it, and him, even if it's contradictory or irrational.

But Shaslers, how does when they throw on first down disprove Cosell’s point that they only do so when they have to? How many of those are first downs after a penalty? How many of those are first downs in the two minute? How many of those are first downs when trailing big or trailing late, for example. Even when you consider all of that, they were still only ranked 22nd, based on what you’re saying.

Edit: Bmorecareful gave the explanation.

Those are just vacuum numbers. Cosell doesn’t just speak in vacuum numbers. He takes situations into account.