What They're Saying About the Ravens

[Iamjacks]

Very true IMHO.

I keep comparing this to the run and shoot offense...the exact opposite of what we are doing. Moon and that offense put up some great passing numbers, it confounded a lot of defenses because it was so different. You heard the same thing about how innovative it was and how it put so much pressure on defense and was hard to defend...you had 4 WR's adjusting their routes depending on defensive coverages and leverages. Defenses hated playing against it. Warren Moon was winning awards. However, they won 1 playoff game in 5 seasons (made the playoffs every year but were 1-4) in part due to not being able to hold onto leads due to not being able to run the ball when needed.

You need some balance here. And I agree with Cossell...even on this board, you can tell how people aren't fully comfortable with Lamar throwing because it goes apeshit almost anytime we approach a 50-50 split in play calling that we should only be running the ball.

You are spot on to the running analog of the run and shoot. The run and shoot didn't fail because of the lack of running (primarily) but rather the defense was on the field all the time and got gassed. So here they knew that and said we'll keep the defense off the field and they will stay fresh. That's worked. The passing game hasn't worked when the running game fails/or they need to come from behind.

Best shot (conceptually) since Harbaugh won't fire Roman is
1. Practice more what you are weakest in less what you are strong in.

2. Hire someone to be the "feelings guy" someone who has the ability to judge the game flow/feeling of the players and power to get Harbaugh and Roman to notice that and make a radical change in the script. Usually this is a failure to punish teams when they show they can't stop a play. Run it until they do stop it.

To an extent they did this this year by taking points and not always going for it. They failed when they didn't throw out the game plan when they saw the opposition fail to defend the run. They shouldn't have do anything other than run Gus up the gut on the first drive at the Bills. Other games couldn't stop counter bash when they were cruising.

3. Get the plays in 50% faster. This is on Harbaugh since that has been featured since 2008 same as Joe as Lamar. That's coaching.

4. Something coaching isn't fixing the QB locking into the WR Joe = Lamar and that suggests coaching. Both demonstrated they can progress but also they won't often when it's crunch time. That's coaching.

[s.r.genovese]

But bad pass plays result in zero yards, and there is more than a 30% chance of zero yards on a given pass play, even with the best passers. And really bad pass plays result in a substantial loss of yardage on a sack, or the other team getting the ball on the interception. Also, fumbles are twice as likely on pass plays as they are on run plays.

If we're going to compare, let's compare all of it.

EPA incorporates all of those considerations.

Page 17/31.

https://www.stat.cmu.edu/~ryurko/fil...lakes_2017.pdf

[Shas]

Medicore pass plays are generally more efficient than even the best run plays .

I just have to wonder what data leads you to that conclusion. What were the best run plays considered in the comparison. What is a mediocre pass play?

Exactly. I think a lot of commentary reflects what people think and not what they know. Including Cosell.

Average NFL passing offenses complete about 2/3 passes.

So if you take every pass thrown in the nfl, the bottom half of all attempts will consist mostly of incompletions--zero yards gained--plus the worst 15% of all completed passes, in terms of net yards gained. The top half consists of the rest: the best 85% of completions in terms of yards gained.

Only 13% of completions resulted in 20 or more yards. So we know that the chance of an incompletion is three times greater than the chance of a 20+ yard pass, every time a team drops back to pass.

If "mediocre" is the mean result on any given passing play, then we know this too. We know this because the Ravens are the team that is dead in the middle in terms of yards per passing attempt, and it's 7.2 yards per attempt.

That compares to the best running game, also the Ravens, which produces 5.5 yards per attempt.

It's true, then, that a mediocre passing play is better than the average running play by the best running team.

Although SRG said "best run play" not best run team. The Ravens best run plays when for more than 10 yards, certainly better than the average pass attempt that yielded 7.

But more important, the spread of what can happen on a pass play is much larger. It's is more of a boom or bust situation. 15% of NFL passes exceed 20 yards compared the league-best running attack in Baltimore with 5% of runs over 20. But, as stated, 1/3 of all passes go for zero yards.

What that means it that it is much harder to keep the ball and control the clock throwing the ball. We all know that coaches emphasize third down conversions. The Ravens offense led the league in total number of third down conversions made and were 8th in third down conversion percentage. That's a reflection of a strong running game keeping them on schedule. The Ravens were third in the league in T.O.P. and were far and away #1 in this category coming down the stretch.

You can hear all that and still want to reject their approach. That's fine. But it deserves an honest discussion.

[Shas]

EPA incorporates all of those considerations.

Page 17/31.

https://www.stat.cmu.edu/~ryurko/fil...lakes_2017.pdf

This shows that expected points from an average pass attempt is higher than expected points from an average run.

But the original statement was that an average pass is better than the best run.

What you reference does not reach that conclusion.

If you look at the players, for instance, Kaepernick and T. Taylor stand out running the ball with the greatest success, both of whom Roman OCd for at one point. Their expected points per carry (p16) looks to be about double the average expected points per throw around the league (p12).

What this is saying is that, league wide, throwing the ball produces better results. But it doesn't say that a mediocre pass attempt is better than a strong running game.

[s.r.genovese]

This shows that expected points from an average pass attempt is higher than expected points from an average run.

But the original statement was that an average pass is better than the best run.

What you reference does not reach that conclusion.

If you look at the players, for instance, Kaepernick and T. Taylor stand out running the ball with the greatest success, both of whom Roman OCd for at one point. Their expected points per carry (p16) looks to be about double the average expected points per throw around the league (p12).

What this is saying is that, league wide, throwing the ball produces better results. But it doesn't say that a mediocre pass attempt is better than a strong running game.

You're right, I misphrased the point. The average pass play for the average pass offenses are more efficient than the average play for the best run offenses. Kinda hard to compare any play to the "best run play" as a 100 yard rush is going to be better than any other playcall!

[Shas]

Gotcha. I do think there is evidence to say that the best running team compares favorable to a mediocre passing team.

For instance, by comparison, if the Ravens are the 32nd and worst passing team in terms of yards, let's look at mediocre passing teams, ranked 14-18, which would be the Colts, Rams, Seahawks, Steelers and Vikings.

Here are the average stats for these five teams versus the Ravens when it comes to,

Scoring (offensive TD)

The Five: 26th (41)
The Ravens: 8th (55)

3rd Down Conv:

The Five: 20th (.402)
The Ravens 7th (.447)

I didn't go further, but you get the point.

Those are season long stats, and it makes sense that a team that has gone 30-7 is going to look good. It comes back to the question whether the playoffs represent some mythical hurdle they are destined to stumble at, or whether they just need to play better and do what got them there.

[s.r.genovese]

Gotcha. I do think there is evidence to say that the best running team compares favorable to a mediocre passing team.

For instance, by comparison, if the Ravens are the 32nd and worst passing team in terms of yards, let's look at mediocre passing teams, ranked 14-18, which would be the Colts, Rams, Seahawks, Steelers and Vikings.

Here are the average stats for these five teams versus the Ravens when it comes to,

Scoring (offensive TD)

The Five: 26th (41)
The Ravens: 8th (55)

3rd Down Conv:

The Five: 20th (.402)
The Ravens 7th (.447)

I didn't go further, but you get the point.

Those are season long stats, and it makes sense that a team that has gone 30-7 is going to look good. It comes back to the question whether the playoffs represent some mythical hurdle they are destined to stumble at, or whether they just need to play better and do what got them there.

I personally think the 2019 offense could have gone at the very least to the AFCC - they had some fuckups and mistakes but there was nothing about that Titans game that made me think that the philosophy of the offense was broken. They probably would have lost to Mahomes but that's just because Mahomes may be the 2nd best QB of all time.

This year was a little different but they also weren't as good at running or passing this year, so it doesn't surprise me that they weren't that effective in the playoffs against good teams.

My thought is that they can get back to near 2019 levels of offensive production with some tweaks in the passing game (mostly passing more on 1st down), productive additions to the interior line and WRs, and a full off-season of work from Lamar. Will that lead to a Super Bowl? Probably not as long as Mahomes is healthy, but I don't think that's an indictment of the philosophy as a whole. And you never know - guys get hurt, have bad games, or bad weather can be the equalizer.

[BaltimoreSean]

Basically it's the intangibles that will win games

[Iamjacks]

Greg Cosell :
I've always been a believer in that coaching staffs tell you about what they think about their QB by what they do. Baltimore does not want to throw the ball. So they're telling us at this point in Lamar's career what they think of him in the context of their passing game which by the way is very Basic. So again. People can draw their own conclusions. But the fact is they do not want to throw the ball unless they absolutely have to. So they are telling you what they think of both Lamar and the passing game. We do not have to interpret that Ross, they are telling you that.

Ross Tucker (Justin's brother from another mother): Right but can't you make the other argument that they think they are so good at running and they are so much better running, that they don't...

GC: - CUTS OFF RT-
They are so good at running and in their last two playoff losses they scored 12 points and 3 points. I had a great conversation with an offensive coach this past week on Monday, who basically said 'this is where they will be stuck until their pass game, and by extension Lamar Jackson, develops much more significantly.' So We'll see how that goes. Unfortunately we may have another pandemic offseason and the things I'm sure they want to work on with Lamar might be difficult to work on because it's very difficult to work on things through zoom. So we'll see where they go, but right now their pass game is pretty basic and they're telling you how they want to play. They are telling you they want to be one dimensional. Now is that one dimension great? It can be phenomenal! But I think if you spoke to most coaches, offensive coaches! in this league they would tell you it's very difficult to win big games in the playoffs being one dimensional on offense.

He needs to be developed much more in the passing game.

https://twitter.com/RossTuckerPod/st...15815682646020

@RossTuckerPod: “They do not want to throw the ball unless they absolutely have to. We do not have to interpret that.” @GregCosell talking Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense on the @RossTuckerPod

https://twitter.com/ryanmink/status/1352619092163915781

@ryanmink: This has gone too far. The Ravens throw the ball A LOT when they don't "absolutely have to." Here's something else we don't need to interpret. Lamar Jackson is the best running quarterback EVER. So, you think it might be good strategy to, ya know, let him run?!? Buncha rubbish.

[Iamjacks]

I personally think the 2019 offense could have gone at the very least to the AFCC - they had some fuckups and mistakes but there was nothing about that Titans game that made me think that the philosophy of the offense was broken. They probably would have lost to Mahomes but that's just because Mahomes may be the 2nd best QB of all time.

This year was a little different but they also weren't as good at running or passing this year, so it doesn't surprise me that they weren't that effective in the playoffs against good teams.

My thought is that they can get back to near 2019 levels of offensive production with some tweaks in the passing game (mostly passing more on 1st down), productive additions to the interior line and WRs, and a full off-season of work from Lamar. Will that lead to a Super Bowl? Probably not as long as Mahomes is healthy, but I don't think that's an indictment of the philosophy as a whole. And you never know - guys get hurt, have bad games, or bad weather can be the equalizer.

Like Lamar getting his head cracked this year and missing the entire 4th quarter?

[Shas]

@ryanmink: This has gone too far. The Ravens throw the ball A LOT when they don't "absolutely have to."

Exactly. As I already stated, they throw on first down 35% of the time. Ten teams throw less frequently on first down, including the Steelers for god sakes, who have no running game.

As I also stated, there were probably 100 passing plays called that were converted to running plays because of pressure or no one open downfield.

The idea that Roman doesn't want to throw is a BS speculative/emotional narrative that riles people up but isn't supported by the facts. It leads to a conclusion that Roman needs to be fired because he is stubborn. So, trying to overcome that would be barking up the wrong tree.

That said, they need to protect Lamar better so he has time before he's forced to run...and they need to find ways to get receivers open, through new schemes and/or new receivers.

[The Excellector]

https://twitter.com/RossTuckerPod/st...15815682646020

@RossTuckerPod: “They do not want to throw the ball unless they absolutely have to. We do not have to interpret that.” @GregCosell talking Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense on the @RossTuckerPod

https://twitter.com/ryanmink/status/1352619092163915781

@ryanmink: This has gone too far. The Ravens throw the ball A LOT when they don't "absolutely have to." Here's something else we don't need to interpret. Lamar Jackson is the best running quarterback EVER. So, you think it might be good strategy to, ya know, let him run?!? Buncha rubbish.

I’ll take Cosell over Mink in my sleep.