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11-03-2020, 02:14 PM #49Hall Of Fame Poster
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11-03-2020, 02:28 PM #50
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Re: Stock market crashing this week with Biden projected winner
I'm both intellectually honest and not ignorant of the subject.
Suppose you're running a business that sells widgets. Lowering the cost can increase demand (basic economics), so you do. You see an uptick in sales and revenue, and one would think the cost-cutting worked. But if your competitor saw an equal increase in widget sales without reducing his prices, it wasn't your cost-cutting that spurred demand. It would have to be something else.
The economic impact of the tax cuts, if any, was negligible, and, as already mentioned, matched or exceeded by the negative effects of Trump's tax increases. The Congressional Research Service estimated the TCJA reduced revenues by $170 billion.
https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxv...-2017-tax-cuts
But whatever your priors in this argument, the CRS paper, written by Jane Gravelle and Donald Marples, finds little evidence that the tax cuts had any significant economic benefit. They did substantially lower effective corporate tax rates and generate a flood of stock buybacks and dividends for shareholders. But Gravelle and Marples are a lot like those who looked so hard to find Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction. They searched, but found almost nothing.
And because the TCJA did so little to boost the economy, it fell wildly short of paying for itself in growth-driven new revenue. CRS calculated that the TCJA reduced federal revenue by about $170 billion in Fiscal Year 2018, with corporations benefitting most from the tax cuts.
In fairness, the tax cuts didn’t occur in a vacuum. Some of their benefits may have been offset by President Trump’s own highly restrictive trade policy, or magnified by new deficit spending approved by Congress in 2018. But overall, as TPC predicted in December, 2017, short-term macroeconomic effects were extremely modest. This is consistent with the findings of TaxVox’s quarterly updates on the post-TCJA economy.
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11-03-2020, 02:50 PM #53
Stock market crashing this week with Biden projected winner
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11-03-2020, 03:19 PM #55Veteran Poster
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Re: Stock market crashing this week with Biden projected winner
We're on the right side of the Laffer Curve. Well on the right side even per the lower estimates of the optimal tax rate. So, no: the Laffer Curve doesn't show reducing marginal tax rates from one place on the right side of the curve to another further right will increase revenue. Just the opposite. It's a curve. Moving right on the curve is going down the slope, not up.
Tax rates aren't the only thing affecting revenues. The overall economies do as well (obviously). Tax revenues will be down substantially in 2020, but it won't be because of the marginal tax rates.
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11-03-2020, 04:33 PM #58
Re: Stock market crashing this week with Biden projected winner
It’s a prediction, it can’t be a fact.
It’s a well founded opinion, but it is still based on a simplified approximation using assumptions, so it’s an opinion. It can not be observed or proven in any manner, therefore it must be an opinion and cannot be a fact: Facts are verifiable.
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11-03-2020, 04:49 PM #59Veteran Poster
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Re: Stock market crashing this week with Biden projected winner
This is the same problem the left falls into with global warming predictions. They treat these opinions as fact.
Bacc is claiming (as if factual) that a trend line would definitely continue, based on the authors selective samples.
Vs showing the actual tax revenue that was collected.
After three pages of this, we have a few of us using facts to settle a discussion, and others using opinion on what they think might have happened in the future. It’s a pointless circle jerk.
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11-03-2020, 05:01 PM #60Hall Of Fame Poster
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Re: Stock market crashing this week with Biden projected winner
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