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  1. #1

    The Hill: Don't believe the polls — Trump is winning






  2. #2

    Re: The Hill: Don't believe the polls — Trump is winning

    We still need to get out and vote.
    "A moron, a rapist, and a Pittsburgh Steeler walk into a bar. He sits down and says, “Hi I’m Ben may I have a drink please?”
    ProFootballMock





  3. #3
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    Re: The Hill: Don't believe the polls — Trump is winning

    I like how the authors use polling to provide evidence the polls can't be trusted.

    They also rely on the myth of the shy Trump voter.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-some-of-them/

    The "shy Trump voter" wasn't the cause of the polling errors in '16. The polls in '16 were also more accurate than they were in '12, when Romney significantly underperformed on election day compared to the polling.



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  4. #4

    Re: The Hill: Don't believe the polls — Trump is winning

    Quote Originally Posted by bacchys View Post
    I like how the authors use polling to provide evidence the polls can't be trusted.

    They also rely on the myth of the shy Trump voter.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-some-of-them/

    The "shy Trump voter" wasn't the cause of the polling errors in '16. The polls in '16 were also more accurate than they were in '12, when Romney significantly underperformed on election day compared to the polling.



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    You have no idea of the viscous hate from the fascist left. I had numerous lefty Facebook friends that openly said, if you support Trump, I will delete you. I have never seen anyone on the right say anything like that. So yes, there is a silent support for trump. Deny if you like. But most conservatives are easy going. Not looking for confrontation.





  5. #5

    Re: The Hill: Don't believe the polls — Trump is winning

    Quote Originally Posted by bacchys View Post
    I like how the authors use polling to provide evidence the polls can't be trusted.

    They also rely on the myth of the shy Trump voter.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-some-of-them/

    The "shy Trump voter" wasn't the cause of the polling errors in '16. The polls in '16 were also more accurate than they were in '12, when Romney significantly underperformed on election day compared to the polling.



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    I think the basic premise wasn't that polls can't be trusted.

    It was that polls using the same methods that failed dismally in 2016 can't be trusted... for the same reasons they couldn't be trusted in 2016.

    And that the polls that are more trustworthy, are the ones that used the most successful methods as evidenced by 2016..

    But of course you knew that...

    Propagnadists gonna propagandize.





  6. #6
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    Re: The Hill: Don't believe the polls — Trump is winning

    Few pollsters are having the same methods they did in 2016. Contra the spin in the OP, most pollsters use "likely voters." The majority of pollsters in 2020 are weighting their polls to ensure a greater percentage of non-college educated whites, which were underrepresented in '16.

    Polls are a snapshot in time, moreover, not a prediction. Clinton, whose support was never that strong, starting sliding after the Comey Letter and the momentum carried through election day. That dynamic isn't happening today. There's been no Biden slide or Trump rise.

    Overall, circumstances are different enough I think it's harder to tell what's happening, however. Voting numbers are significantly up, especially in Texas. A lot more people have availed themselves of early and mail in voting. These and more are unusual factors with no recent parallel.

    The Myth of the Shy Trump Voter is a funny one though. We're to simultaneously believe Trump voters are so enthusiastic they come out in droves for rallies and have dotted the landscape with Trump signs in their yards, but at the same time are too worried about getting treated badly for saying they support Trump they won't say it.

    To hear some talk about it one would think the polls in '16 were off by 12 points, but they were within the margin of error. The problem wasn't the numbers: it was how people were reading them.

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  7. #7

    Re: The Hill: Don't believe the polls — Trump is winning

    Quote Originally Posted by bacchys View Post
    Few pollsters are having the same methods they did in 2016. Contra the spin in the OP, most pollsters use "likely voters." The majority of pollsters in 2020 are weighting their polls to ensure a greater percentage of non-college educated whites, which were underrepresented in '16.

    Polls are a snapshot in time, moreover, not a prediction. Clinton, whose support was never that strong, starting sliding after the Comey Letter and the momentum carried through election day. That dynamic isn't happening today. There's been no Biden slide or Trump rise.

    Overall, circumstances are different enough I think it's harder to tell what's happening, however. Voting numbers are significantly up, especially in Texas. A lot more people have availed themselves of early and mail in voting. These and more are unusual factors with no recent parallel.

    The Myth of the Shy Trump Voter is a funny one though. We're to simultaneously believe Trump voters are so enthusiastic they come out in droves for rallies and have dotted the landscape with Trump signs in their yards, but at the same time are too worried about getting treated badly for saying they support Trump they won't say it.

    To hear some talk about it one would think the polls in '16 were off by 12 points, but they were within the margin of error. The problem wasn't the numbers: it was how people were reading them.

    Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
    There absolutely are many Trump supporters who can’t express their support for him. For example, I’d probably be fired my employer found out I supported Trump. The MSM has created this false narrative of Trump and anyone who supports him. The left is totally unhinged and they will resort to destruction and violence against anyone voting for Trump.





  8. #8
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    Re: The Hill: Don't believe the polls — Trump is winning

    Quote Originally Posted by steelerhater View Post
    There absolutely are many Trump supporters who can’t express their support for him. For example, I’d probably be fired my employer found out I supported Trump. The MSM has created this false narrative of Trump and anyone who supports him. The left is totally unhinged and they will resort to destruction and violence against anyone voting for Trump.
    The numbers don't support your hypothetical anecdote.

    While presumably Trump voters in deep blue areas are likely reticent to talk about their political allegiance, those in areas with strong Trump support aren't likely to be so. Just the reverse: those who oppose Trump are more likely to keep quiet when surrounded by Trumpist neighbors and coworkers.

    The numbers from '16 don't show shy voters. They show a momentum shift to Trump or away from Clinton.

    This year, there doesn't seem to be as many undecideds. The race is more about turning out the vote instead of winning the undecideds.

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  9. #9

    Re: The Hill: Don't believe the polls — Trump is winning

    Quote Originally Posted by steelerhater View Post
    There absolutely are many Trump supporters who can’t express their support for him. For example, I’d probably be fired my employer found out I supported Trump. The MSM has created this false narrative of Trump and anyone who supports him. The left is totally unhinged and they will resort to destruction and violence against anyone voting for Trump.
    I feel the same way. I worry more about upsetting my Democrat neighbors though. They are nice people. It's like shitting where you eat talking politics with neighbors. You're just going to alienate someone. It's not worth it. I'm not ashamed of my preference I just feel like the left is completely unhinged right now. There is no way in hell I would share information with a pollster either.

    I'm a registered Democrat btw.





  10. #10
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    Re: The Hill: Don't believe the polls — Trump is winning

    Quote Originally Posted by Vlad the lad View Post
    You have no idea of the viscous hate from the fascist left. I had numerous lefty Facebook friends that openly said, if you support Trump, I will delete you. I have never seen anyone on the right say anything like that. So yes, there is a silent support for trump. Deny if you like. But most conservatives are easy going. Not looking for confrontation.
    I do have an idea, and that "fascist left" is matched or exceeded by a "fascist right." I've had DM's and Messenger contacts from Trump supporters threatening me. I've had former coworkers, classmates, and childhood friends unfriend me because I don't support Trump.

    Ten years ago, and definitely twelve, the left was more unhinged than the right. That's changed, though the left didn't get more hinged. The right today largely lives in an epistemological bubble almost entirely disconnected from reality.

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  11. #11
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    Re: The Hill: Don't believe the polls — Trump is winning

    Quote Originally Posted by bacchys View Post
    I do have an idea, and that "fascist left" is matched or exceeded by a "fascist right." I've had DM's and Messenger contacts from Trump supporters threatening me. I've had former coworkers, classmates, and childhood friends unfriend me because I don't support Trump.

    Ten years ago, and definitely twelve, the left was more unhinged than the right. That's changed, though the left didn't get more hinged. The right today largely lives in an epistemological bubble almost entirely disconnected from reality.

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    The far left and the far right are actually close together. They're just far from the middle/ level-leaded.





  12. #12
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    Re: The Hill: Don't believe the polls — Trump is winning

    The populist right and left today certainly share some beliefs, such as their opposition to the American world order and free trade.

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