The Hill: Don't believe the polls — Trump is winning

**owknows** · 10-29-2020, 10:27 PM

And winning "bigly"

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign...-winning-bigly

**darb72** · 10-29-2020, 11:29 PM

We still need to get out and vote.

**bacchys** · 10-30-2020, 08:35 AM

I like how the authors use polling to provide evidence the polls can't be trusted.

They also rely on the myth of the shy Trump voter.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-some-of-them/

The "shy Trump voter" wasn't the cause of the polling errors in '16. The polls in '16 were also more accurate than they were in '12, when Romney significantly underperformed on election day compared to the polling.

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**Vlad the lad** · 10-30-2020, 08:43 AM

Originally Posted by bacchys

I like how the authors use polling to provide evidence the polls can't be trusted.

They also rely on the myth of the shy Trump voter.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-some-of-them/

The "shy Trump voter" wasn't the cause of the polling errors in '16. The polls in '16 were also more accurate than they were in '12, when Romney significantly underperformed on election day compared to the polling.

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You have no idea of the viscous hate from the fascist left. I had numerous lefty Facebook friends that openly said, if you support Trump, I will delete you. I have never seen anyone on the right say anything like that. So yes, there is a silent support for trump. Deny if you like. But most conservatives are easy going. Not looking for confrontation.

**bacchys** · 10-30-2020, 09:47 AM

Originally Posted by Vlad the lad

You have no idea of the viscous hate from the fascist left. I had numerous lefty Facebook friends that openly said, if you support Trump, I will delete you. I have never seen anyone on the right say anything like that. So yes, there is a silent support for trump. Deny if you like. But most conservatives are easy going. Not looking for confrontation.

I do have an idea, and that "fascist left" is matched or exceeded by a "fascist right." I've had DM's and Messenger contacts from Trump supporters threatening me. I've had former coworkers, classmates, and childhood friends unfriend me because I don't support Trump.

Ten years ago, and definitely twelve, the left was more unhinged than the right. That's changed, though the left didn't get more hinged. The right today largely lives in an epistemological bubble almost entirely disconnected from reality.

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**NCRAVEN** · 10-30-2020, 10:07 AM

Originally Posted by bacchys

I do have an idea, and that "fascist left" is matched or exceeded by a "fascist right." I've had DM's and Messenger contacts from Trump supporters threatening me. I've had former coworkers, classmates, and childhood friends unfriend me because I don't support Trump.

Ten years ago, and definitely twelve, the left was more unhinged than the right. That's changed, though the left didn't get more hinged. The right today largely lives in an epistemological bubble almost entirely disconnected from reality.

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The far left and the far right are actually close together. They're just far from the middle/ level-leaded.

**steelerhater** · 10-30-2020, 11:04 AM

Originally Posted by bacchys

I do have an idea, and that "fascist left" is matched or exceeded by a "fascist right." I've had DM's and Messenger contacts from Trump supporters threatening me. I've had former coworkers, classmates, and childhood friends unfriend me because I don't support Trump.

Ten years ago, and definitely twelve, the left was more unhinged than the right. That's changed, though the left didn't get more hinged. The right today largely lives in an epistemological bubble almost entirely disconnected from reality.

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While there may be some outliers with the right, most conservatives aren’t unhinged. Compare that with the left, where I’d say that being unhinged is the rule rather than the exception. If Biden wins, it’ll pretty much be business as usual with the right. If Trump wins, the left will probably destroy half of America.

**bacchys** · 10-30-2020, 12:41 PM

Originally Posted by steelerhater

While there may be some outliers with the right, most conservatives aren’t unhinged. Compare that with the left, where I’d say that being unhinged is the rule rather than the exception. If Biden wins, it’ll pretty much be business as usual with the right. If Trump wins, the left will probably destroy half of America.

Trump and his supporters aren't conservatives, and they're the dominant group on the right now.

They're definitely unhinged.

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**Vlad the lad** · 10-30-2020, 12:41 PM

Originally Posted by bacchys

I do have an idea, and that "fascist left" is matched or exceeded by a "fascist right." I've had DM's and Messenger contacts from Trump supporters threatening me. I've had former coworkers, classmates, and childhood friends unfriend me because I don't support Trump.

Ten years ago, and definitely twelve, the left was more unhinged than the right. That's changed, though the left didn't get more hinged. The right today largely lives in an epistemological bubble almost entirely disconnected from reality.

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I find this hard to believe. I have never seen a trump supporter threaten to silence the opposition. Sounds like wishful thinking. Or fear.

When was the last time a conservative politician told its supporters to get in their face at restaurants. Or to being a gun to a knife fight.

**bacchys** · 10-30-2020, 12:49 PM

Originally Posted by Vlad the lad

I find this hard to believe. I have never seen a trump supporter threaten to silence the opposition. Sounds like wishful thinking. Or fear.

When was the last time a conservative politician told its supporters to get in their face at restaurants. Or to being a gun to a knife fight.

Of course you find it hard to believe. You stay in your own little bubble.

I like how you lift Obama's words out of context and misconstrue them to make your point.

Trump told his supporters to punch protestors during the '16 campaign and promised to pay their legal bills if they did. Sharon Angle and several nutjob Republicans babbled about "Second Amendment solutions" when Obama was POTUS.

Your worldview is extremely partisan. You dismiss the violent nutjobs on the right as either not representative or not really right, while insisting the whole of the left is responsible for and represented by their nutjobs. Except the left's nutjobs aren't running the Democratic Party while the dominant faction in the GOP is their nutjobs.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/blam...ry?id=58912889

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**owknows** · 10-30-2020, 08:50 AM

Originally Posted by bacchys

I like how the authors use polling to provide evidence the polls can't be trusted.

They also rely on the myth of the shy Trump voter.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-some-of-them/

The "shy Trump voter" wasn't the cause of the polling errors in '16. The polls in '16 were also more accurate than they were in '12, when Romney significantly underperformed on election day compared to the polling.

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I think the basic premise wasn't that polls can't be trusted.

It was that polls using the same methods that failed dismally in 2016 can't be trusted... for the same reasons they couldn't be trusted in 2016.

And that the polls that are more trustworthy, are the ones that used the most successful methods as evidenced by 2016..

But of course you knew that...

Propagnadists gonna propagandize.

**bacchys** · 10-30-2020, 09:16 AM

Few pollsters are having the same methods they did in 2016. Contra the spin in the OP, most pollsters use "likely voters." The majority of pollsters in 2020 are weighting their polls to ensure a greater percentage of non-college educated whites, which were underrepresented in '16.

Polls are a snapshot in time, moreover, not a prediction. Clinton, whose support was never that strong, starting sliding after the Comey Letter and the momentum carried through election day. That dynamic isn't happening today. There's been no Biden slide or Trump rise.

Overall, circumstances are different enough I think it's harder to tell what's happening, however. Voting numbers are significantly up, especially in Texas. A lot more people have availed themselves of early and mail in voting. These and more are unusual factors with no recent parallel.

The Myth of the Shy Trump Voter is a funny one though. We're to simultaneously believe Trump voters are so enthusiastic they come out in droves for rallies and have dotted the landscape with Trump signs in their yards, but at the same time are too worried about getting treated badly for saying they support Trump they won't say it.

To hear some talk about it one would think the polls in '16 were off by 12 points, but they were within the margin of error. The problem wasn't the numbers: it was how people were reading them.

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