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  1. #37
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    Re: Unsuccessful Pass Plays

    Q2 8:41 - 3&8, CIN 48: Lamar pass complete short middle to Nick Boyle for 2 yards (tackle by Vonn Bell)

    Three steps and a hitch from empty. Lamar motioned Gus out, then recalled him,then said never mind and sent him back. Gus was actually moving forward at the snap: coulda been a penalty.


    Bengals rush 6 vs 5 blockers. Lamar throws this on-time and in-rhythm. Can't complain about him throwing hot vs the blitz, having knocked him earlier for *NOT* doing it.
    But Marquise & Andrews both come open for big plays. Lamar's got a lot of places to go with the ball. Keep this play too.

    (Skipped deeper open throws, chose least dangerous receiver, good quick tackle)



    Q2 7:56 - 4&6, CIN 46: Lamar pass incomplete deep right intended for Mark Andrews

    3-step drop from shotgun, Bengals bring 6 onto 6 blockers. Lamar throws on-time and in-rhythm --

    RAVENS ONLY HAVE 10 OFFENSIVE PLAYERS ON THE FIELD!!!!
    What in the fucking hell is that??


    Andrews is split wide and has one-on-one coverage. Lamar overthrows him.
    Lamar never looks anywhere else -- on the other hand, there aren't enough places for him to look anyway.
    Worth noting that the center gets beat by his rusher. Pressure wasn't a factor here, but if Lamar had wanted to hold a beat longer, he would've had to move.

    (Uncatchable throw, too few men on the field) Wouldn't have guessed I would need THAT tag!



    Q2 4:08 - 2&7, RAV 35: Lamar pass incomplete short right intended for Mark Andrews (defended by Jessie Bates)

    Play-action from Pistol then short drop, defender in Lamar's face immediately.


    You can see what happened off the snap:


    Boyle is head-up on #23, and I guess he assumes 23 is going to drop in coverage. RG Mekari is going to pull out left to support the run fake and pass-block on the backside, so Boyle might think that Zeus has responsbilities inside and the DE is unblocked. Zeus & Boyle may have assumed the MLB was going to rush. Boyle's eyes are inside the whole time.
    The TEs part for the blitzer, and #23 has a free run at Lamar.


    Lamar got some criticism for this throw being "risky" and "interceptable". I think it's a decent gamble. Andrews has a 4-inch height advantage on the defender Bates, and is a proven jumper and ball-tracker and hands guy. Lamar has put it in a place, NOT where Bates has an easy INT, but where the worst result is a contested-catch situation. Lamar has his best rebounder on a small guy. It's not a bad situation. The other throws Lamar made later in the game were much worse. This seemed calculated.

    (early pressure, OL mistake, good D call, bad throw not really catchable, contested catch not won)





  2. #38
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    Re: Unsuccessful Pass Plays

    Q2 4:01 - 3&7, RAV 35: Lamar pass incomplete short middle intended for Nick Boyle

    Play-action from shotgun, Lamar drops 3 and has a rusher immediately.


    Benglas send 6 rushers on 6 blockers, but still get a free guy off the edge. You can see what happened at the LOS:


    This is like the last one. Bengals have some DBs over the TEs, and maybe the Ravens pass-blockers assume the DBs are going to cover? Both TEs go out, but one of the DBs comes.
    Gotta respect the divisional rivalry. Doesn't it look like the Bengals spotted something, about what the Ravens pass-protectors assume about coverage on their TEs.
    I think Dobbins is in the wrong here. The Ravens have 3 OL on the left side for the 3 rushers. It's the other side that needs his attention, but he's not thinking to look over there.


    Houdini is able to get the ball away while in the grasp, but not put quite enough mustard on it. Boyle almost makes the catch.

    (early pressure, OL mistake, good D call, contact on QB )




    Q2 1:28 - 1&10, CIN 27: Lamar pass incomplete deep middle intended for Marquise Brown (defended by LeShaun Sims)

    3-step drop & a hitch out of shotgun, Bengals rush 4 and Lamar has all day to throw.


    He has Boykin crossing the middle and Dobbins on the right side, but he wants Marquise deep


    At the moment of the throw. I'm not in love with the decision at this moment, with the two defenders dropping back to challenge.
    But the throw is fucking PERFECT. It hits Marquise right in the hands, at what would he the dot in the i of "Baltimore" (if it were lower-case). Unfortunately the defender gets a hand in also.

    (Skipped early options, skipped easier open throw, pass defensed)




    Q2 1:23 - 2&10, CIN 27: Lamar pass incomplete short left intended for Gus Edwards (defended by Darius Phillips)

    3-step drop from shotgun, Lamar throws in rhythm, tipped at the line. (#23 is having himself a game)


    Gus would've a nice little posse to run behind, if this ball had gotten to him.





  3. #39
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    Re: Unsuccessful Pass Plays

    Q2 1:20 - 3&10, CIN 27: Lamar pass short middle intended for Willie Snead is intercepted by Logan Wilson at CIN-24 and returned for no gain

    3-step drop from empty, Lamar plants that 3rd step and throws immediately, in-rhythm. Right to the LB dropping into zone.


    Bengals only rush 4 or 5. They get deceptive pressure: Zeus is looking to block the guy who dropped out, while the end gets a free rush. They called a really nice game with their front 7.

    That's Duvernay coming open under Boykin's clear-out, bottom of the screen. I probably shouldn't have cicled him: I don't think Lamar can try to throw there without getting sacked.
    I didn't circle Andrews in the middle of the field, because I think the defender coming downhill would have disrupted that pass.
    In other words, feel free to swap the orange cicle from Duvernay to Andrews; I'm not sure I made the right call here.

    (Bad decision by QB, Good D call)




    Q2 0:43 - 1&10, RAV 35: Lamar sacked by Carlos Dunlap for -9 yards

    3-step drop from shotgun, immediate pressure.


    That's Lamar planting his 3rd step. It's not that there's no-one to go to hot, it's that Stanley loses so quickly. Lamar steps up, into the range of Dunlap's arm.

    (Early pressure, OL loses fast, contact on QB, sack



    Q2 0:20 - 2&19, RAV 26: Lamar pass complete short right to J.K. Dobbins for 9 yards (tackle by Shawn Williams)

    3-step drop from shotgun, Bangals rush 4, Lamar throws in-rhythm, conservative play call.


    I don't have a tag for "playing safe & conservative when way behind the chains toward the end of the half." It's a nice gain.




    Q2 0:10 - 1&10, RAV 47: Lamar pass complete short right to J.K. Dobbins for 3 yards (tackle by LeShaun Sims)

    One step and a hitch out of shotgun, Bengals rush 4, Lamar decides quick to go toward the sideline


    This might have been a pre-snap read, since the only defender on that side of the field is all the way over on the sideline, over Marquise.
    Still, the Ravens did have a timeout in hand if Lamar had wanted to work backside. Note the defender #22 is bailing.

    This is another place where I need a tag for a conservative end-of-half decision.



    Q2 0:06 - 2&7, RAV 50: Lamar pass complete short middle to Mark Andrews for 7 yards (tackle by Shawn Williams and Akeem Davis-Gaither)

    One step and a hitch from empty. Do we like Lamar's footwork in these short-time situations? Anyway, they're just picking up a few yards to make the FG try slightly easier.


    Marquise is up on the right sideline; and that's *Boykin* running the out from the slot, with Dobbins clearing out from the left sideline at the bottom. Interesting swap there.
    Boykin has the most space between him and the nearest defender. Marquise has the most forward momentum.

    It's not that there's anything wrong with going to Andrews here; they're not looking for a big play here, just get a few and get Tucker onto the field. But, the strong tendency to throw to the middle of the field in EVERY goddam situation, is starting to wear on me a little.





  4. Re: Unsuccessful Pass Plays

    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    That's Duvernay along the right sideline (bottom of screen), not getting open.
    Anti-Duve bias! (That's Snead. Duve is presumably resting after his 42 yard carry.)


    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    RAVENS ONLY HAVE 10 OFFENSIVE PLAYERS ON THE FIELD!!!!
    What in the fucking hell is that??
    Huge mistake on a high leverage play. Not sure it had a huge effect though. It's probably on Duve (he was on the field earlier in the 11 personnel with Proche and Edwards). Could also have been on Snead.
    Shared Google Folder with Ravens spreadsheets, nextGen charts, and more! Please share my content! (attribution to Twitter requested)

    Knight of the Kingdom of Perfect Play, Student of The Bill James School of Stamping Out Bullshit. Main Sources: PFR, particularly the Play Index; for cap stuff, RSR's Brian McFarland (secondary: OverTheCap, Spotrac)





  5. Re: Unsuccessful Pass Plays

    I was watching the Titans Steelers game. How come the Ravens don't use Duvernay like the Titans use the speedy AJ Brown? He is Tannehill's big time receiver. Durvernay is fast but the Ravens don't use him the right way.





  6. #42
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    Re: Unsuccessful Pass Plays

    Quote Originally Posted by simplesimon View Post
    How come the Ravens don't use Duvernay like the Titans use the speedy AJ Brown?
    Duvernay was nowhere near the route-runner AJB was in college.





  7. #43
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    Re: Unsuccessful Pass Plays

    Quote Originally Posted by organizedchaos21 View Post
    Anti-Duve bias! (That's Snead. Duve is presumably resting after his 42 yard carry.)
    Wups! Sorry Devin.
    (Corrected.)





  8. Re: Unsuccessful Pass Plays

    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    Duvernay was nowhere near the route-runner AJB was in college.
    Durvernay looked pretty good with the go, slant, and corner routes at Texas. The Ravens offense looks like Nebraska against Ohio State. No passing options whatsoever. Lamar is going to have to be able to hit those post and go routes if we are going to have hopes of getting to the superbowl.





  9. Re: Unsuccessful Pass Plays

    Huh, apparently I skipped half the CIN posts (from the first until the D4 failure). Not sure how I missed them.

    Jim, do you define "Unsuccessful" somewhere? Putting together a spreadsheet to track your factors: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing . It's not terribly onerous to manually remove the "Successful" plays, but if you have a set criteria, I can automate it.

    edit: ok, seems like you're using the standard definition. I've also seen positive EPA plays considered as Successes. FWIW, the play that you question (7 yard gain on 2nd&15) is not a Success by either metric (-0.13 EPA)
    Last edited by organizedchaos21; 10-25-2020 at 07:40 PM.
    Shared Google Folder with Ravens spreadsheets, nextGen charts, and more! Please share my content! (attribution to Twitter requested)

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  10. #46
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    Re: Unsuccessful Pass Plays

    Quote Originally Posted by organizedchaos21 View Post
    Jim, do you define "Unsuccessful" somewhere?
    ...
    edit: ok, seems like you're using the standard definition
    Yeah, starting with standard. But I think I'm going to wind up fudging at the edges. Already I've seen a couple technically "unsuccessful plays", that I think the Ravens are fine with. The 9-yd gain on 2nd-&-19, for example. Or when they're deliberately conservative at end-of-half situations, to settle for a FG.

    I also want to be alert for the possibility of plays that are technically "successful", but might represent a failure at what they were trying to do. Like, maybe they try to hit a shot play on 1st down, and Lamar gets flushed and scrambles for a 5-yd gain. I'm trying to check the scambles, to see if there's anything to look at.

    Does that make sense? Standard definition as the core, but noting some exceptions as I go.


    Quote Originally Posted by organizedchaos21 View Post
    Putting together a spreadsheet to track your factors: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing .
    Dude. You are the best.





  11. Re: Unsuccessful Pass Plays

    Quote Originally Posted by JimZipCode View Post
    Yeah, starting with standard. But I think I'm going to wind up fudging at the edges. Already I've seen a couple technically "unsuccessful plays", that I think the Ravens are fine with. The 9-yd gain on 2nd-&-19, for example. Or when they're deliberately conservative at end-of-half situations, to settle for a FG.

    I also want to be alert for the possibility of plays that are technically "successful", but might represent a failure at what they were trying to do. Like, maybe they try to hit a shot play on 1st down, and Lamar gets flushed and scrambles for a 5-yd gain. I'm trying to check the scambles, to see if there's anything to look at.

    Does that make sense? Standard definition as the core, but noting some exceptions as I go.


    Dude. You are the best.
    Sounds good. I'll just add all the dropbacks to start, and we can remove the ones we don't care about. Speaking of, I wouldn't be mad if you wanted to fill it out the spreadsheet directly...
    Shared Google Folder with Ravens spreadsheets, nextGen charts, and more! Please share my content! (attribution to Twitter requested)

    Knight of the Kingdom of Perfect Play, Student of The Bill James School of Stamping Out Bullshit. Main Sources: PFR, particularly the Play Index; for cap stuff, RSR's Brian McFarland (secondary: OverTheCap, Spotrac)





  12. #48
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    Re: Unsuccessful Pass Plays

    Quote Originally Posted by organizedchaos21 View Post
    I wouldn't be mad if you wanted to fill it out the spreadsheet directly...
    You dont need to manage the info on this for me. I was planning to count it up and "pivot" it myself after I finished 3 games, then post a table with counts, kind of like post #4 in that drops thread.





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