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10-19-2020, 10:36 PM #50Regular 1st Stringer
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10-19-2020, 11:23 PM #52Hall Of Fame Poster
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Re: Top thoughts & suggestions for Ravens going into the bye
OrgChaos. Can you look at film to see if Stanley or Brown are cheating back a bit on pass plays. The penalties on them lining up off the line makes me wonder.
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10-19-2020, 11:35 PM #53
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10-19-2020, 11:35 PM #54Regular 1st Stringer
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Re: Top thoughts & suggestions for Ravens going into the bye
The more I think about it, the more I think they just don't have the horses up front to run Roman's scheme from last year. It was basically built around getting good push up the middle, with the option of Lamar zooming passed the edge outside if the defense misplayed him. Unfortunately, this season; they downgraded at RG from HOF to Rookie/JAG level, and at C from above average to JAG level (due to injury). So, they just aren't getting the same push needed for the backbone of the offensive system. Since, everything is built off of that, everything else looks off too.
I think they need to adapt the system to the players the currently have. They need to get more creative in terms of implementing more traditional West Coast concepts meant to overcome weak OL play. We should see more screens to RBs, TEs, & WRs. We should see more quick hits on plays designed to get a guy open quickly, and generate YAC. That will open up more deep plays on double moves which will then force teams not to sell out so much to stop the run, and things will open up more for the run game too.
Basically, I think the team needs to admit the OL, has dramatically regressed, and adapt their approach. Thoughts?
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10-19-2020, 11:41 PM #55
Re: Top thoughts & suggestions for Ravens going into the bye
Facts. We get zero push in the run game, which hurts the play action game that we dominated with last year. That puts us in a lot of third and long situations that we are terrible at converting. Like you said, we need more screens, jets sweeps, reverses. Just shit to slow down the pass rush and keep the defense on their toes.
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10-19-2020, 11:49 PM #56
Re: Top thoughts & suggestions for Ravens going into the bye
The 2 flags thrown on Stanley for illegal form were definitely technically correct. I too am curious if he was aligning differently in the past or if refs decided to make a point of it this week. I plan to wait until filmstudy releases his article on the OL (I expect he'll touch on it), and then use the bye to investigate if I still have questions.
Shared Google Folder with Ravens spreadsheets, nextGen charts, and more! Please share my content! (attribution to Twitter requested)
Knight of the Kingdom of Perfect Play, Student of The Bill James School of Stamping Out Bullshit. Main Sources: PFR, particularly the Play Index; for cap stuff, RSR's Brian McFarland (secondary: OverTheCap, Spotrac)
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10-19-2020, 11:51 PM #57
Re: Top thoughts & suggestions for Ravens going into the bye
I believe Shas posted an image of the alignment on the play that Brown was penalized. He did not mention the Stanley calls. Link: https://forum.russellstreetreport.co...e-observations
Shared Google Folder with Ravens spreadsheets, nextGen charts, and more! Please share my content! (attribution to Twitter requested)
Knight of the Kingdom of Perfect Play, Student of The Bill James School of Stamping Out Bullshit. Main Sources: PFR, particularly the Play Index; for cap stuff, RSR's Brian McFarland (secondary: OverTheCap, Spotrac)
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10-20-2020, 12:02 AM #58
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Re: Top thoughts & suggestions for Ravens going into the bye
Paintballguy posted the following but I can't find the article that I was talking about. I'll have to recall it since I can't confirm it. My bad. I swear I read something with percentages but can't find it for the life of me.
"Defenses are just taking a book out of the Titans playbook from the playoffs. Stack the box, flood the middle of field with zones and make Lamar beat them with quick underneath and outside passes.
The Bengals played a straight 4-3 d and read off of ricard. Where ricard went, the lbs flowed towards.
They are going to need more early down passing that’s efficient. And they’re gonna need to hit some of these deep shots to make defenses respect them. Finally Lamar has to hit these quick and outside passes they are giving him"
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10-20-2020, 12:03 AM #59
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10-20-2020, 12:13 AM #60
Re: Top thoughts & suggestions for Ravens going into the bye
Going to respond to this out of order because I want to start by agreeing with your conclusion. In short, I think they need to do better on early downs, and I'd like to see more of everything you list here. Give me 2nd&6 (hell, even 2nd&7) and stay the hell away from 3rd&long.
Last I checked (and it has been a while), the consensus was that rush success was uncorrelated with PA success (link: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/st...action-passing ). I'd expect the Ravens PA to be even more devastating. It's possible that further analysis has reached a different conclusion though.
They're very good in 3rd&short (between 1 and 3 yards to go): 64% (9/14)
Actually better at 3rd&medium (between 4 and 6 yards to go): 67% (12/18)
Unsurprisingly very bad at 3rd&long (between 7 and 9 yards to go): 22% (6/27)
I expect the short numbers are below average, the medium numbers are average, and the long numbers below average (I don't actually know where to find the data in a useful form).
But, they've been oddly ok when they need to gain between 10 and 15 yards: 43% (6/14), including 4/5 on 3rd&10, 1/1 on 3rd&11, and even 1/2 on 3rd&14. I have little doubt that converting 40% of those long 3rd downs is above average. It could certainly be a sample size thing, but they might also be scheming up conversions on some of the longer 3rd downs. Examples from Sunday include:
- [redacted]'s out at (Q1, 11:57) to convert 3rd&10
- Screen to Duvernay at (Q1, 10:09) to convert 3rd&11
- Lamar scramble at (Q2, 09:41) to convert 3rd&10
If they are scheming these up, the problem I see is that these are practically single use plays. You see a hole in the defense, you exploit it, they correct and take it away. It's obviously not great to have to blow these advantages on the opening drive like they did against PHI (presumably PHI adjusted and took away these plays for the rest of the day, although I've seen evidence that Duvernay is open deep on the 3rd&9 at (Q3, 09:02) when Jackson took a sack).Shared Google Folder with Ravens spreadsheets, nextGen charts, and more! Please share my content! (attribution to Twitter requested)
Knight of the Kingdom of Perfect Play, Student of The Bill James School of Stamping Out Bullshit. Main Sources: PFR, particularly the Play Index; for cap stuff, RSR's Brian McFarland (secondary: OverTheCap, Spotrac)
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