Election Predictions

[2bynight]

Prediction: Trump loses in a landslide to Biden.

Based upon 2016, I no longer believe any polls. However, here is an anecdotal story. A friend is a farmer in a small town in a very rural area. Spent 15 years in the military. He recently told me he despises Trump and is voting for Biden. A farmer who is a veteran in red land who is now voting for Biden tells me there is a sea change in some of Trumps base and how they view him. No trust in polls, but this was startling.

2nd prediction: Trump loses, refuses to accept defeat, and states he is going to have a fraudulent election overturned by the Supreme Court. His ass is escorted out of the White House in January by the military (wishful thinking). While I say this a bit tongue in cheek, I absolutely believe this can happen based upon his view that the only way he loses is fraud. He will not be able to accept any loss, whether by a few votes or a landslide.

[NCRAVEN]

Prediction: Trump loses in a landslide to Biden.

Based upon 2016, I no longer believe any polls. However, here is an anecdotal story. A friend is a farmer in a small town in a very rural area. Spent 15 years in the military. He recently told me he despises Trump and is voting for Biden. A farmer who is a veteran in red land who is now voting for Biden tells me there is a sea change in some of Trumps base and how they view him. No trust in polls, but this was startling.

2nd prediction: Trump loses, refuses to accept defeat, and states he is going to have a fraudulent election overturned by the Supreme Court. His ass is escorted out of the White House in January by the military (wishful thinking). While I say this a bit tongue in cheek, I absolutely believe this can happen based upon his view that the only way he loses is fraud. He will not be able to accept any loss, whether by a few votes or a landslide.

Is this an actual prediction or fantasy?

[BustOfPallas]

Prediction: Trump loses in a landslide to Biden.

Based upon 2016, I no longer believe any polls. However, here is an anecdotal story. A friend is a farmer in a small town in a very rural area. Spent 15 years in the military. He recently told me he despises Trump and is voting for Biden. A farmer who is a veteran in red land who is now voting for Biden tells me there is a sea change in some of Trumps base and how they view him. No trust in polls, but this was startling.

2nd prediction: Trump loses, refuses to accept defeat, and states he is going to have a fraudulent election overturned by the Supreme Court. His ass is escorted out of the White House in January by the military (wishful thinking). While I say this a bit tongue in cheek, I absolutely believe this can happen based upon his view that the only way he loses is fraud. He will not be able to accept any loss, whether by a few votes or a landslide.

Lol, that you believe this is not surprising.

What is 100% true is that people like you will not under any circumstance a Trump victory. You never did.

Was your hand on your d***, lube at the ready, when you were typing that?

[2bynight]

Lol, that you believe this is not surprising.

What is 100% true is that people like you will not under any circumstance a Trump victory. You never did.

Was your hand on your d***, lube at the ready, when you were typing that?

You're wrong...and once again you throw in a personal insult. I see a majority of Trumpsters on this site are unable to communicate unless they also insult people. If Trump wins, I will accept that. Thats the democratic process. Will you accept a Biden win?

[Greg]

Trump will win more electoral vote than he did in 2016. There is a good chance Biden doesn't get to 100.

Trump will win more African American votes than any Republican in decades.

He will do well with Latinos.

Biden is more likeable than Hillary but Kamala is not likeable at all. I don't know how that plays out but the enthusiasm Hillary had is bounds more than Biden's.

If Biden's obvious mental deficiencies were in the new he would be lucky to win DE.

Text califragilisticexpialidocious to Joe on the interwebs to 30330033000330303030.

[2bynight]

Is this an actual prediction or fantasy?

Actual prediction. Will you lose your mind if Biden wins?

[bacchys]

Warning Sign: West Virginia

The last time West Virginia went for a Democratic presidential candidate was 1996, when Bill Clinton carried the state. Since then, WV has been:

2000: Bush +6
2004: Bush +13
2008: McCain +12
2012: Romney +27
2016: Trump +42

This is the baseline for understanding what has been happening in West Virginia over the last 20 years. Looking at the state you can almost see the old Democratic coalition falling apart and white non-college voters shifting to the GOP.

For totally mysterious reasons that no one could possibly understand, that shift accelerated following the election of Barack Obama, with Republicans pulling in an extra net 15 points in each of the next two cycles.
I’m interested in West Virginia because if the national Biden-Trump numbers are real, then we ought to see some reflection of them even in West Virginia, because Biden’s lead is due, in part, to his re-capturing of parts of the old Democratic coalition and better performance with white working-class voters.

And sure enough:

[attachment=0]https___bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com_public_images_32a0ab4d-26fe-4c9f-a8cf-b14a93d08a34_2034x892.jpg[/attachment]

I am not saying that West Virginia is in play.
But I am here to tell you that if Trump is really only +23 in West Virginia right now, then November 3 is going to be an absolute bloodbath for Republicans. Because it means that all of the demographic trends we’re seeing in the national numbers—Biden’s strength with seniors, Biden’s strength with non-college white women, Biden’s strength with all college-educated voters—are so real that they’re cutting 45 percent out of Trump’s margin in a homogenous state where neither side is playing.

There is a reason that the 538 model now has the single most likely outcome as Biden winning more than 400 electoral votes.

https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/wa...7k4HBmjx15v6Fs


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[2bynight]

Trump will win more African American votes than any Republican in decades.

With Kamala as VP candidate and the BLM movement you have got to be kidding. There is no way that happens.

[NCRAVEN]

Actual prediction. Will you lose your mind if Biden wins?

Lose my mind? No, I went through 8 years of BHO, I can handle Dementia Joe

[Greg]

With Kamala as VP candidate and the BLM movement you have got to be kidding. There is no way that happens.

We'll see.

What percentage of AA vote do you think Trump gets?

[NCRAVEN]

We'll see.

What percentage of AA vote do you think Trump gets?

12-14%

[Greg]

12-14%

I think that is the minimum.