A decrease in draft value?

[ReedInTheWind]

If there is no college football this season, are draft picks next season worth less? I've seen some speculation about this. The idea being that the trade market before the deadline this year could be wild, simply because teams may want to spend picks on proven players rather than taking a larger gamble on a rookie with less tape than they're comfortable with.

How big is the impact?

I think the whole draft next season is going to have to be rethought.

[usmccharles]

Very big. With a lot of players not getting a chance to get new tape, scouts not wanting to take any risks, it's going to be very hard after the top tier talent.

Another thing that sucks about this year is all the late round picks and undrafted guys that don't even get a chance. How many guys like Adam Thielen are we going to miss out on, that guy had to pay 25$for a third party combine.

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[WrongBaldy]

This is where the ravens scouts will hopefully shine

[GOTA]

If Joe Burrow had entered the 2019 NFL draft where would he have been taken? 3rd round at best and that's only if a team really loved him and wanted to pay up to make sure they got him. In 1 season he goes from there to the #1 overall pick. You're taking all that away. Draft picks were already a shot in the dark. The risk this year of a mistake has to be significantly greater. It will be interesting if we see some more of these trades for guys still on their rookie contracts which have become more popular in recent years. That 1st round pick for a Minkah Fitzpatrick type deal would make a lot of sense in 2020.

Washington has a brand new coaching staff and front office. I'd offer them the 2021 Ravens 1st round pick right now for Montez Sweat. I wouldn't hesitate at all to make that trade

[jonboy79]

Many underclassmen would return, the first round would after the first half dozen picks would be near worthless with everyone trying to trade back... all the teams would want a whole bunch of late round lottery picks and no one would want highly paid first 3 round picks.


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[mmi16]

The Draft is always somewhat of a Crap Shoot under normal circumstance - for 2021 it will be off the charts.

Hit or miss - and they likely with be a couple of home runs and a whole lot of swings and misses.

[QtR Nevermore]

Trading draft picks for proven performers would be the sensible thing to do this year.

Every team will be scrambling to trade back but it might be like this year's draft, where there aren't many trade partners willing to give up picks to move up. Most teams will probably end up having to stick and pick.

It might give the Ravens a better shot of landing a star with a late first in a funny way because a lot of duds will be picked ahead of us but it also increases the chance we pick a bust, too.

Should be fun.

[edromeo]

I don’t think the draft/draft picks will lose value.

If anything it will increase the value of a strong scouting department.

The focus will likely be on proven draft prospects sophomore and juniors with production.

And there will be more speculation on presumptive talent-
Example: It will be incumbent upon scouts
to identify “hidden gems”......good rapport with college teams will be critical; to identify the kids that play for good programs and were stuck behind NFL caliber talent that would/could have a breakout season

[Ravenswintitle]

Gota is right about Joe Burrow - his last year is THE reason he was the #1 pick and he wouldn't have been drafted nearly that high, if at all. Same with Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray. This will take more than good scouts and it also will rob some players of that last year of tape they needed

[edromeo]

Gota is right about Joe Burrow - his last year is THE reason he was the #1 pick and he wouldn't have been drafted nearly that high, if at all. Same with Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray. This will take more than good scouts and it also will rob some players of that last year of tape they needed

I agree 100% about the players you mention above. But, the majority of top level draft prospects are known quantities.

I agree that there will be some players that won't get their chance at a 'break out' season by those guys are the exception not the rule.

I'm just a guy sitting on my couch and off the top of my head I can name guys that I know will be top NFL prospects:
Justin Fields
Trevor Lawrence
Ja'Marr Chase
Parsons
Trey Lance
Devonta Smith
Travis Etienne

NFL have teams with entire scouting departments.

The draft prospect pool won't be as large as last year but i think the percentage of decrease isn't drastic.

[Ravenswintitle]

^that's true Ed but point is, would miss those guys that had a huge last year.

This is going to change CFB maybe forever. A lot of top players are going to do their own spring training / films and skip football.

Several top college football players are lining up agents and preparing to opt-out. This should play out over the next few days and will alter who plays in the spring.

[BcRaven]

If Joe Burrow had entered the 2019 NFL draft where would he have been taken? 3rd round at best and that's only if a team really loved him and wanted to pay up to make sure they got him. In 1 season he goes from there to the #1 overall pick. You're taking all that away. Draft picks were already a shot in the dark. The risk this year of a mistake has to be significantly greater. It will be interesting if we see some more of these trades for guys still on their rookie contracts which have become more popular in recent years. That 1st round pick for a Minkah Fitzpatrick type deal would make a lot of sense in 2020.

Washington has a brand new coaching staff and front office. I'd offer them the 2021 Ravens 1st round pick right now for Montez Sweat. I wouldn't hesitate at all to make that trade

GOTA, I agree, and your entire post makes a lot of sense too... Bc