A decrease in draft value?

[bacchys]

He was a senior last year and had no more eligibility.

I think he's assuming that a COVID-19 cancelled year won't count against a player's eligibility.

Which means a canceled college football year will impact potential draftees for at least a couple of years as the college teams will have more than the usual competition for roster spots.

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[ReedInTheWind]

Jaylen Smith from Louisville? I followed both Louisville and the draft closely and he never had 2nd round buzz that I recall, maybe 3rd at best and that was predicated on him having a strong Sr. season. If he had 2nd round buzz he would have came out as a Jr.

Also, Smith only good measure was straight line speed. I only advocated for him as an UDFA because he was player Lamar was comfortable with.

And even IF your view of Jaylen Smith were true he would be an exception not the rule.
You wouldn’t devalue an entire draft class because of the risk of Jaylen Smith. You know how often actual first round picks bust out?

He only didn't enter in 2018 cause of his wrists, and being told he wouldn't be able to do a proper combine. https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...te/2990644002/

And he definitely got buzz before making a decision to return. Even if he was only a 3rd round prospect, that's a huge difference in investment from the UDFA he became a year later.

I don't get the beef with using this as a test case of what can go wrong. It seems like the perfect example of what can happen without enough tape. The loss of a year of tape is enormous and absolutely devalues the draft class.

[edromeo]

Maybe I wasn’t clear. I said even IF you believe Smith is an example of the dangers of “losing” a year of tape (1) there aren’t many players that are in a Jaylen Smith situation.

(2) Draft evaluation is inherently unpredictable regardless of the circumstances.

I don’t believe the small percentage of players that require a breakout season to get drafted will devalue the draft class as a whole.

It may change the outlook and methodology of the draft (forcing teams to focus a track record of production because of the lack of final season outliers with a single season of excellence); it may create more “hidden” gem late round prospects but I don’t see how that will devalue the entire class.

And at the end of the day we’re really only talking about where they’ll be selected. Because we all should know that draft quality isn’t determined by where a prospect is selected. Draft quality is determined by how they play and IF a player like Jaylen Smith could play it wouldn’t matter if he “fell” to 6th-UDFA realm. Tony Romo was an UDFA QB and was one of the best QBs in the league.

At the end of the day talent will out.

[ReedInTheWind]

We won’t know how many players next season could be in that same Jaylen Smith situation, that’s the point. I should be more clear too. This thread isn’t about devaluing the actual players (Though they will lose out on a seasons worth of development and more players than normal will probably need longer development), it’s about devaluing what the picks are actually worth in next seasons draft due to an extra layer of unknowns with prospects.

I agree that a drafts success is determined by the players who become contributors, no matter where they are selected. It would be every GMs dream to select pro bowlers in later rounds or as UDFAs every year. But the investment is completely different.

GMs don’t just treat early round picks as hit or misses and they’ll get better value in later rounds, they believe these players will be great and worth that investment cause of everything they’ve seen of them. The gamble gets greater through every round.

That investment gets skewed with a loss of tape, and so does the value of the picks. Would a GM take a 1st round pick in the draft next season for a player they already know is valuable on their team (like the minkah Fitzpatrick deal last season)? I wouldn’t. The risk isn’t worth the same reward.

The later rounds will most likely be filled with more good players next year because of the increased gambling risk across all rounds. So if a team is dumb enough to trade you a good player at the deadline this year, I think you have to do it. It’s a proven commodity vs a greater unknown than GMs will have ever dealt with.

[edromeo]

To each their own, i get what you are saying but I just don't agree.

If we were both GM's I would happily trade for your devalued picks and draft Jamar Chase (for example)

[Corey]

The Draft is always somewhat of a Crap Shoot under normal circumstance - for 2021 it will be off the charts.

Hit or miss - and they likely with be a couple of home runs and a whole lot of swings and misses.

Thats why I dont think this year is very different for teams. They will do their homework like always and be ready when they are on the clock. It will hurt the one year wonders who have one good year and skyrocket up draft boards. The guys who have been consistent performers over a period of time will benefit from having tape.

[PTORaven]

as much as draft pick value goes down in 2021, it should go up in 2022 (all those players staying another year should lead to a ridiculous class). i think we'll see a lot more paired draft picks in trades as a result, like for example a team trading their 2021 5th + 2022 5th for Player X

[PTORaven]

it'll probably throw off the year to year value for 2021/2022 as well. usually a pick in this year's draft is worth a round later than in next year's draft (so 2021 4th is worth a 2022 3rd). they might just consider them equal for 2021/2022, so a 2021 3rd might be worth a 2022 3rd. just a guess. i'm sure a team's in-house valuations are much more specific.

[PTORaven]

this makes it all the more satisfying for teams like the Dolphins that blew up the team to rebuild through the draft. screwing up even just one year totally turns that plan to shit.

[GOTA]

this makes it all the more satisfying for teams like the Dolphins that blew up the team to rebuild through the draft. screwing up even just one year totally turns that plan to shit.

Great point. Their scouting department better be great or that team is going to end up with even more lost years.

[ursula]

Trading draft picks for proven performers would be the sensible thing to do this year.



Should be fun.

With the cap most likely to go down draft picks will be highly valued even though the draft will be more of a crap shoot than ever. There will be some teams trading for vets and giving up draft picks but those teams are the very few teams that will have cap space next year.

[ClericBlackDave]

Fun conversation, but I thinks is being overdone.

yes, a few BAD teams / FO's will make plays to trade away high picks due to the situation. I think the stupid trade by the Seahawks for Jamal Adams is an example.

But I think most teams will just set their board with the best known information and draft accordingly. Keep in mind these players are scouted since High-School; sometimes, middle school! There's tons of data.

When a guy like Preston Williams flashes with the Dolphins, everyone goes back to - he was a 5-star recruit out of high school, how/why did the rest of the NFL miss on this (hint: off the field issues)


But my point is, there might be a greater focus on pedigree and past scouting ranks, but I don't think the value goes down at all. Bad FO's might out-fox themselves, but better FO's will stay the course and end up landing more talent.


IF ANYTHING, there's a danger some bad teams get REAL good if they can sell off some veteran pieces for future firsts to desperate / poorly run franchises. While Jamal Adams is a great player, what the Jets got for him in that situation was CRIMINAL. Seahawks fleeced themselves. If that was due to Covid-19, shame on them.