A decrease in draft value?

[ReedInTheWind]

Difficult to say. I wouldn’t have done the Adams trade either, simply because 2 firsts and a starter is too much for me to pay for anyone that isn’t going to immediately put my team into a super bowl or become the face of a franchise for years to come. I don’t think Adams does that for Seattle, but we saw how elite safety play can immediately improve a problematic defense (like with Minkah and the steelers last year).

I’d be wary of using high school recruiting as a measure of NFL success. 247sports has all top recruit rankings every year on their site. Some maintain that status through college and you’ll see some hilarious over-ranking of players that did absolutely nothing in the Pros (like Daylon Mack), most of them are people you’ve never heard of or are out of the league.

[GaTechRavens]

I think it would be a seller's market for us. Let the rest of the league have the mindset that they need to devalue the draft next year, trust our scouting department and if the opportunity comes maybe pull a Belichick and be the rare contender who's actually willing to trade players away (for surplus value) and keep building through the draft.

[QtR Nevermore]

I think it would be a seller's market for us. Let the rest of the league have the mindset that they need to devalue the draft next year, trust our scouting department and if the opportunity comes maybe pull a Belichick and be the rare contender who's actually willing to trade players away (for surplus value) and keep building through the draft.

That sounds more like a strategy for a rebuilding team. For a team that expects to remain competitive you have to consider the message that would send to the current roster. Do you thinks FAs like Wolf and Fluker would have taken cut price deals just to be on the Ravens if we'd been in the business of trading players for picks? Would Peters have signed for under market value?

I think the first and smartest draft strategy of all is not to believe that you evaluate and draft better than any other team. That's just arrogance and it gets teams in trouble. Of course you want to rely on great scouting and information but the advantage that gives even a great GM and organisation is marginal at best; it's always a lottery.

I think Ravens fans believe we draft better than we do because we more pay attention to the Ravens. We see potential in our young players, we see good picks gone bad due to injury and we sometimes forget that every other team has the same stories. The margin between teams who draft well and those who draft badly gets finer every year.

[QtR Nevermore]

I think the best strategy for the 2021 draft would be to throw out the Jimmy Johnson chart and trade back for less 'value' than ever before.

A while back I looked at the last 10 years of NFL drafts. It was surprising how, outside the top 10, about the same percentage of picks turned into viable players in the late 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds with a bit of a drop off in the 5th. (The 6th and 7th were much lower.)

Next year, more than ever, more picks will be the best strategy. The problem is, every team knows it, so it will be impossible to get value for trading back. I say forget about value. When every pick is a lower percentage chance then the best way to increase your hit rate is to take more shots. Even if it seems like a bad deal, like you 'lost' the trade, one more shot at the top 150 players will be worth it.