Talking Ravens Sack Record

[WNCRavensFan]

I noticed on the main page under "hot take Tuesday" that Aidan makes the claim the Ravens are going to break their sack record of 60, made by the famous 2006 team ("Organized Chaos").

https://russellstreetreport.com/2020...y/sack-record/

Here's the predicted breakdown and my response:

13.5 Judon
8.0 Campbell
6.0 Bowser
5.0 Queen
4.5 Wolfe
4.5 Ferguson
3.0 Williams
3.0 McPhee
2.5 Ward
2.0 Harrison
1.5 Madubuike
1.5 Humphrey
1.5 Clark
1.5 Fort
1.5 Young
1.0 Peters
1.0 Smith
1.0 Thomas
-------------
62.5 TOTAL

Interesting take. First off there'll need to be 16 games; we'll just assume that. Second, the offense needs to at least approach last year's level of effectiveness; we'll assume that too and it's a fair assumption, though I think we'll have more passing success and less rushing success.

On defense, if anything is going to help the team achieve this record, it will be the improved RUN defense. What?? Well think about it, some teams ran against the Ravens D despite playing from behind because the D ran a lot of dime and the pass defense as a whole (lack of pass rush / blitzing and all) was a lot better than the run defense. So the smart teams exploited the weak spot, and of course when the offense faltered a bit in the playoff game, the Titans ran the ball down the Ravens' collective throat. The best way to accumulate sacks, is to have your opponents take as many pass attempts as possible. With Calais Campbell improving the RUN defense, along with Patrick Queen and Particularly Malik Harrison taking away edge runs, it's going to force opponents to throw that much more to keep up with Lamar & company.

Jaylon Ferguson is big here. He's supposed to be an excellent run defender / edge setter, that's what I saw in college, but he didn't live up to it as a rookie. I'm not so much expecting Judon or Bowser to excel at setting the edge. Anyway, on to the actual pass rush.

Aidan has Judon busting out with 13.5 sacks based on the idea he was the only legit pass rusher last season. Personally I see things being spread out more. Judon will still be doubled from time to time, especially if Campbell comes out for any snaps on third down. B-Will, who also commands double teams, won't be there on third down to begin with. Judon also has a large amount of coverage responsibility.

I actually think the estimate for Calais Campbell is too low. The guy is obscene. He can beat double teams and still get a sack. Three sacks from B-Will even with the improved pass rush seems high. Wolfe looks about right, as well as the DL rookies.

This is the season for Tyus Bowser and/or Jaylon Ferguson to shine. Bowser remember got 5 sacks as a reserve last season. If he beats out Sack Daddy for a starting job this year he could be primed for 8+. Still it seems as if they will be sharing snaps.

At LB, Queen is too high to me. I see some of his sacks going to Harrison instead.

The secondary got 6 of Baltimore's 37 sacks last season. Blitzing was very common. Aidan has 7.5 and I think that's a tick high; even though the % of sacks goes down based on the increased total, I believe there will be a more normal distribution of where the sacks come from.

Finally, and most importantly when it comes to this kind of projection, there's no accounting for missed time. Injuries will happen, not to mention we have a pandemic going on. Some of these guys near the top of the list may very well have zero sacks. Pernell McPhee for example was on his way to a 7-8 sack season but only netted 3 since he only played in 7 games. But you can't account for it when you go player-by-player, because you don't know who goes down or when it will happen.

Here is my projection which again are probably too high because of what I just said:


11.0 Campbell
10.0 Judon
6.0 Bowser
5.0 Ferguson
4.5 Wolfe
3.5 McPhee
3.0 Harrison
2.5 Madubuike
2.0 Queen
2.0 Young
2.0 Stone/Elliott/Levine/other
1.5 Ward
1.0 Clark
1.0 Fort
1.0 Thomas
1.0 Williams
-------------
57.0 TOTAL

I'd take at least five sacks off the top for missed time.

[The Excellector]

I miss that 2006 defense.

[Raveninwoodlawn]

I miss that 2006 defense.

That's a heck of a hot take IMHO and a hell of a jump from what we had last year. I think the pass rush will be a lot better, but not really close to that much better.

[LC_Ravens_87]

I expect more than 37 sacks, and hopefully more pressure w/o blitzing. But, I sure don't see anything close to 60. The closest they've gotten since is 49 sacks in 2014. And that was with 2 Pro Bowlers on a bookend attack.

[tnsmith90]

That's a heck of a hot take IMHO and a hell of a jump from what we had last year. I think the pass rush will be a lot better, but not really close to that much better.

Agreed. I give it less than 1% chance of happening.

That '06 defense though, OMG. We had pro bowl to All Pro talent at every single position besides strong safety, and Dawan Landry was still solid.

LDE: Trevor Pryce
LDT: Kelly Gregg
RDT: Haloti Ngata
RDE: Terrell Suggs
LLB: Adalius Thomas
MLB: Ray Lewis
RLB: Bart Scott
LCB: Chris McCallister
RCB: Samari Rolle
SS: Dawan Landry
FS: Ed Reed

Looking at that group is astonishing.

*Disclaimer 1- I know the alignment is debatable, but I just pulled this off of Pro Football Reference
*Disclaimer 2- I know Kelly Gregg wasn't technically a pro bowl talent, but he was borderline, and he was a part of this group's dominance.